Head coaching grades for all 32 current HC's

[Shake n Blake]

A few years ago - in response to a certain poster who claimed that Marvin Lewis was one of the most successful coaches - I created a grading system to compare Marv's entire tenure to how the rest of the teams fared over the same stretch. I graded each season and added all the points together. The grading system looked like this:

+8 points for 12-16 regular season wins
+5 points for 10-11 wins
+3 for a 9-7 season
0 points for 8-8
-3 for a 7-9 season
-5 for 5-6 wins
-8 for 4 or fewer wins

I added the following bonuses:

+10 for a division title
+10 for each playoff win
+50 for a Super Bowl title

For example, Marv accumulated +18 points last season without winning a playoff game. A 9-7 team that fails to win it's division, but wins 1 playoff game would accumulate a +13 score. Championship teams usually rack up a +85 score or higher. Not a perfect system, but IMO it's fair. Obviously if you make a deep playoff run or win a title, you should be heavily rewarded. You can also rack up points by winning in regular season and capturing division titles.

This time around, I figured I'd finally take Berserker's advice, and make it more of a coach to coach comparison. In order to do this, I graded every single season by every single current Head Coach. Fortunately, Pro Football Reference has all the information I needed on each coach's page, as it made accumulating the grades go much faster. In order to make the grades fair for comparison, I took each coach's total career points and divided them by total years coached. So the following grades are a per season average:

1. Bill Belichick: +28.9 (21 seasons with Browns, Pats)
2. John Harbaugh: +23.6 (8 seasons)
3. Mike McCarthy: +20.9 (10 seasons)
4. Mike Tomlin: +20.2 (9 seasons)
5. Chuck Pagano: +20.0 (3 seasons)
6. Pete Carroll: +19.3 (10 seasons with Jets, Pats, Seahawks)
7. Sean Payton: +16.9 (9 seasons)
8. Gary Kubiak: +14.0 (9 seasons with Texans, Broncos)
9. Bruce Arians: +13.3 (4 seasons with Colts, Cardinals)
10. Ron Rivera: +13.0 (5 seasons)
11. Andy Reid: +12.8 (17 seasons with Eagles, Chiefs)
12. John Fox: +11.4 (14 seasons with Panthers, Broncos, Bears)
13. Jim Caldwell: +9.4 (5 seasons with Colts, Lions)
14. Bill O'Brien: +8.0 (2 seasons)
15. Mike Zimmer: +6.0 (2 seasons)
t16. Rex Ryan: +5.0 (7 seasons with Jets, Bills)
t16. Chip Kelly: +5.0 (3 seasons with Eagles)
t16. Todd Bowles: +5.0 (1 season)
19. Jeff Fisher: +4.2 (20 seasons with Titans, Rams)
20. Marvin Lewis: +4.1 (13 seasons)
21. Jason Garrett: +4.0 (5 seasons)
22. Mike McCoy: +2.7 (3 seasons)
23. Jay Gruden: +2.5 (2 seasons)
24. Jack Del Rio: +1.1 (12 seasons with Jags, Raiders)
t25. Hue Jackson: 0.0 (1 season)
t25. Dan Quinn: 0.0 (1 season)
t27. Adam Gase (no experience)
t27. Ben McAdoo (no experience)
t27. Doug Pederson (no experience)
t27. Dirk Koetter (no experience)
31. Mike Mularky: -3.3 (3 seasons with Bills, Jags)
32. Gus Bradley: -7 (3 seasons)

_________________


Notes:

- This is not a ranking of who is the better coach, it's only meant to judge past success.
- I gave Arians credit for the 2012 Colts, when he coached 12 games with Pagano out.
- keep in mind that Marv's first 8 seasons featured as many 4 win seasons as playoff berths. That hurt his grade, but it happened.
- Obviously, this years results are not included.

[fredtoast]

Don't think a 8-8 division champion should get more points than an 11-5 wild card team

[Shake n Blake]

(10-14-2016, 03:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Don't think a 8-8 division champion should get more points than an 11-5 wild card team

The 8-8 division champ (pretty rare if we're honest) likely won their key division matchups in order to take the division. They would deserve credit for that. 

[fredtoast]

Don't think a 10-6 division champion should be worth THREE TIMES as many points as an 11-5 wildcard team.  And I don't think an 8-8 division champion should be worth more than an 11-5 wildcard team.  Playing in a weak division has zero to dowith how good a coach is.

Also don't know why there should be a 6 point difference between a 7-9 team and a 9-7 team when there is only a 2 point difference between a 9-7 team and an 11-5 team.  To me all the 7-9 to 9-7 teams are about the same while it is much more rare to win 11 games.  No way the difference between 7-9 and 9-7 should be THREE TIMES as great as the difference between 9-7 and 11-5.

And finally, shouldn't a team that wins 11 games and makes the playoffs earn more points than a team that goes 10-6 and misses tha playoffs?

[fredtoast]

(10-14-2016, 03:30 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The 8-8 division champ (pretty rare if we're honest) likely won their key division matchups in order to take the division. They would deserve credit for that. 

Why give a coach credit for playing in a weak division?  That has nothing to do with coaching skills.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Let me guess...



































Fredtoast was that certain poster.

[Brownshoe]

(10-14-2016, 03:38 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why give a coach credit for playing in a weak division?  That has nothing to do with coaching skills.

How do you know its a weak division and not just a extremely hard schedule? What if they had to play the AFCN and the NFCW and lost to the Patriots and Denver with their 1st place schedule. Just because a division has a bad record doesn't automatically make that division a bad division. You have to look at the details of the season.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-14-2016, 03:37 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1. Don't think a 10-6 division champion should be worth THREE TIMES as many points as an 11-5 wildcard team.  2. And I don't think an 8-8 division champion should be worth more than an 11-5 wildcard team.  Playing in a weak division has zero to dowith how good a coach is.

3. Also don't know why there should be a 6 point difference between a 7-9 team and a 9-7 team when there is only a 2 point difference between a 9-7 team and an 11-5 team.  4. To me all the 7-9 to 9-7 teams are all about the same while it is much more rare to win 11 games.

5. And finally, shouldn't a team that wins 11 games and makes the playoffs earn more points than a team that goes 10-6 and misses tha playoffs?

1. Win your own division. It's pretty important.
2. Which divisions are "good or bad" is subjective and has no place in an objective ranking.
3. Losing seasons are punished. Don't lose.
4. Sorry, I don't see 7-9 teams as the same as a 9-7 team.
5. Not sure what you mean. 11-5 WC team that is 1-n-done would be +5, while a 10-6 team that misses the playoffs would also be +5. Are those 2 seasons all that different? Was the 11-5 team that much more successful? Not IMO.

Edit: Just noticed that you think 7-9 and 9-7 teams are the same, but you blast the grading system for not separating 10-6 teams from 11-5 teams.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-14-2016, 03:44 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Let me guess...



Fredtoast was that certain poster.

My lips are sealed.

[Brownshoe]

Really like the rankings. Lewis would probably be a lot higher on the list of he was ever able to win in the post season. He's had the team's to do it but never could. Hell he had .500 or worse records with Palmer, Chad, Housh, Rudi, a spectacular OL. I think it's pretty clear that the ranking he has on this list is well deserved.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-14-2016, 03:50 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: How do you know its a weak division and not just a extremely hard schedule? What if they had to play the AFCN and the NFCW and lost to the Patriots and Denver with their 1st place schedule. Just because a division has a bad record doesn't automatically make that division a bad division. You have to look at the details of the season.

People used to think the NFCW was weak. Then suddenly it wasn't. Now it is again. Like I said, it's all subjective. Fred just doesn't like where Marv is ranked, but it's clear that's where he belongs based on his (and everyone else's) success - or lack thereof.

[OrlandoBengal]

(10-14-2016, 04:03 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Really like the rankings. Lewis would probably be a lot higher on the list of he was ever able to win in the post season. He's had the team's to do it but never could. Hell he had .500 or worse records with Palmer, Chad, Housh, Rudi, a spectacular OL. I think it's pretty clear that the ranking he has on this list is well deserved.

Whether anyone likes it or not, coaches are judged on the post season.  By their ability to get there and then by what they are able to accomplish.  It's just the way things are in professional sports.  Not being able to find post season success is a huge mark against Marvin's legacy.

And to Shake: Very nice post, this took some time to prepare.

[Earendil]

I'm honestly surprised Marvin isn't lower.

[J24]

Just curious what would Marvin point total look like if you just look at it from 08- 15?

[fredtoast]

(10-14-2016, 03:50 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 2. Which divisions are "good or bad" is subjective and has no place in an objective ranking.

Won loss records are not subjective.  In fact that is exactly what is being used in this analysis.  If a team wins a division with 7 or 8 wins then that is a weak division.

(10-14-2016, 03:50 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 4. Sorry, I don't see 7-9 teams as the same as a 9-7 team.

Apology accepted.  But the question is "Is the difference between a 7-9 team and an 11-5 team worth THREE TIMES as much as the difference between a 9-7 team and an 11-5 team? 

(10-14-2016, 03:50 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 5. Not sure what you mean. 11-5 WC team that is 1-n-done would be +5, while a 10-6 team that misses the playoffs would also be +5. Are those 2 seasons all that different? Was the 11-5 team that much more successful? Not IMO.

So in your opinion there is no value to making the playoffs?  Seems kind of silly to me.  

Also claiming that a 10-6 division champion (15 points) is THREE TIMES BETTER than a 11-5 wildcard team (5 points) makes no sense to me.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-14-2016, 04:05 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote:
People used to think the NFCW was weak. Then suddenly it wasn't. Now it is again. Like I said, it's all subjective. Fred just doesn't like where Marv is ranked, but it's clear that's where he belongs based on his (and everyone else's) success - or lack thereof.

Pretty much, I mean the AFCN was probably the 3rd worst division last year if you look at combined records, and the best division in 2014 under the same criteria. 1st to 5th out of 8 is a huge swing in one year.

I am curious though, how did you manage ties? Like 2 years ago, the Panthers were 7-8-1. Did that give them 7 wins or 8 under your system?




(Fred being difficult in a thread that doesn't praise Lewis as the best thing since sliced bread? I'm shocked I well you, shocked.)

[Shake n Blake]

(10-14-2016, 04:14 PM)Steelers.fredtoast Wrote: 1. Won loss records are not subjective.  In fact that is exactly what is being used in this analysis.  If a team wins a division with 7 or 8 wins then that is a weak division.

2. Apology accepted.  But the question is "Is the difference between a 7-9 team and an 11-5 team worth THREE TIMES as much as the difference between a 9-7 team and an 11-5 team? 

3. So in your opinion there is no value to making the playoffs?  Seems kind of silly to me.  Especially when you think that a division champion is more important (by a HUGE margin) than a wildcard when both make the playoffs.  You are saying that a 10-6 division champion is MORE THAN TWICE as good as an 11-5 wildcard team.

1. Divisions often have down years. This can often be caused by playing tougher divisions. Our own division has had some down years. Does that mean the Bengals should've received less credit when the Steelers, Ravens and Browns were 8-8 or worse?

2. Yes. Losing seasons are punished.

3. I value wins. Which 10-6 team is better? The one that made the playoffs or the one that missed? In truth, they're probably about the same. I would, however, give credit to the 10-6 team if they handled their division.

(10-14-2016, 04:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pretty much, I mean the AFCN was probably the 3rd worst division last year if you look at combined records, and the best division in 2014 under the same criteria. 1st to 5th out of 8 is a huge swing in one year.

I am curious though, how did you manage ties? Like 2 years ago, the Panthers were 7-8-1. Did that give them 7 wins or 8 under your system?




(Fred being difficult in a thread that doesn't praise Lewis as the best thing since sliced bread? I'm shocked I tell you, shocked.)

For teams with ties, I just counted the win total.

[Wes Mantooth]

Thanks for taking the time (again) to do this Shake. I think we all can appreciate the effort.

And fwiw, I think the scoring is about as fair as you're going to get. Any system like this is always going to have something someone can latch on to to complain about it. Grading coaches isn't an exact science. I think the real issue lies with posters who are hell bent on having an argument than actually having a discussion about the overall value of this system. There's plenty of meat in this topic, plenty of ways to look at it. I think if someone immediately looks for flaws then that says more about having an agenda than anything else.

[Shake n Blake]

Hey Fred (or anyone else), any debates on where certain coaches are ranked in this list?

[Benton]

(10-14-2016, 04:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Also claiming that a 10-6 division champion (15 points) is THREE TIMES BETTER than a 11-5 wildcard team (5 points) makes no sense to me.

http://www.profootballhof.com/news/history-of-the-wild-card/

Quote:Since the Wild Card System began in 1970, only ten wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, six won the Super Bowl. Only four of those wild card teams -- New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, and Green Bay Packers -- won three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl.

The season ends sooner for a wildcard — the overwhelming majority of the time — than it does for a division champ. If the SB is the pinnacle, having a swell regular season without being division champ has historically been fairly irrelevant.