Deep Pass

[Joelist]

(10-16-2016, 10:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

1. TheLeonardLeap
   

Yeah, don't think he has Greg Little hands, but I wouldn't rate them a plus skill.

Most of the problems lie elsewhere, you're right. That said, I still think having an Anquan Boldin type WR to be the super-reliable hands on third down and the like would be awfully nice. Dude isn't a deep threat at all (not that he was ever much of one), but dang, 36 years old and he put up 8/60/1 today. Must be comfortable for a QB to know that safety valve is always open.

I've always wondered why we don't sign a veteran "hands" receiver to be an outlet target. It's better than making our RBs do double duty and/or only having an outlet target when Eifert is healthy. 

[Shake n Blake]

(10-16-2016, 10:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeah, don't think he has Greg Little hands, but I wouldn't rate them a plus skill.

Most of the problems lie elsewhere, you're right. That said, I still think having an Anquan Boldin type WR to be the super-reliable hands on third down and the like would be awfully nice. Dude isn't a deep threat at all (not that he was ever much of one), but dang, 36 years old and he put up 8/60/1 today. Must be comfortable for a QB to know that safety valve is always open.

Well it sounds like we pretty much agree on the hands. Although I think LaFell (who isn't fast) brings more speed to the table than 36 year old Boldin, who was never fast in the first place. I have all the respect in the world for what Boldin has accomplished in his career (HOF'er easily in my book), but I think he and LaFell are similar in skill right now. 

Fwiw: here's their production thus far:

LaFell: 23-289-3 (12.6 per)
Boldin: 29-244-3 (8.4 per)

Similar production I guess, but clearly Boldin is catching more short stuff.

[Shake n Blake]

I've been wondering why AJ isn't targeted more in the RZ.

The one problem I see with our receivers (TEs included) is that no one seems like a RZ threat. Uzomah and Kroft have combined for 25 catches...and no TDs. Green only has 2. Boyd has 0. Maybe the RZ offense just sucks? All these guys can't be terrible.

It was similar last year, when MLJ had 4 TDs and Sanu had 0.

[J24]

(10-17-2016, 12:28 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I've been wondering why AJ isn't targeted more in the RZ.

The one problem I see with our receivers (TEs included) is that no one seems like a RZ threat. Uzomah and Kroft have combined for 25 catches...and no TDs. Green only has 2. Boyd has 0. Maybe the RZ offense just sucks? All these guys can't be terrible.

It was similar last year, when MLJ had 4 TDs and Sanu had 0.

Hes probably double covered all the time in the red area I mean what else would you do if you're the opposing coordinator.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-17-2016, 12:34 AM)J24 Wrote: Hes probably double covered all the time in the red area I mean what else would you do if you're the opposing coordinator.

Right. That explains him...sort of (seems like they could move him around or something), but what about everyone else? We had similar issues all through 2014. The only time the RZ problems went away was when Eifert was healthy. Doesn't seem normal for a team to rely so heavily on one player for RZ production...especially when said player can't stay on the field.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-17-2016, 12:23 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Well it sounds like we pretty much agree on the hands. Although I think LaFell (who isn't fast) brings more speed to the table than 36 year old Boldin, who was never fast in the first place. I have all the respect in the world for what Boldin has accomplished in his career (HOF'er easily in my book), but I think he and LaFell are similar in skill right now. 

Fwiw: here's their production thus far:

LaFell: 23-289-3 (12.6 per)
Boldin: 29-244-3 (8.4 per)

Similar production I guess, but clearly Boldin is catching more short stuff.

Should be noted that Boldin is a #3 for the Lions, and LaFell is a #2. Amazingly enough, both of their totals is on 37 targets.

I know LaFell beings more speed to the table, and I admittedly don't have the exact numbers on drops, but I am fairly confident in saying Boldin probably has very little to none.

There's just something to be said about having a guy at your disposal who has caught 78.4% of all his targets, even if they are for shorter yardage, and can do it in the middle of the field, too.

That means Dalton has a 62.2% completion when throwing to LaFell, which is good overall, but still actually 5.2% below his season %.
(Gio has 29 catches on 35 targets.)

Since Dalton doesn't have a reliable TE anymore, I think he's missing that hands WR who can get the tough 3rd down yardage if the guys deeper can't get open.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-17-2016, 12:41 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Should be noted that Boldin is a #3 for the Lions, and LaFell is a #2. Amazingly enough, both of their totals is on 37 targets.

I know LaFell beings more speed to the table, and I admittedly don't have the exact numbers on drops, but I am fairly confident in saying Boldin probably has very little to none.

There's just something to be said about having a guy at your disposal who has caught 78.4% of all his targets, even if they are for shorter yardage, and can do it in the middle of the field, too.

That means Dalton has a 62.2% completion when throwing to LaFell, which is good overall, but still actually 5.2% below his season %.
(Gio has 29 catches on 35 targets.)

Since Dalton doesn't have a reliable TE anymore, I think he's missing that hands WR who can get the tough 3rd down yardage if the guys deeper can't get open.

I agree on the "hands" target, although I feel there is no replacement for a solid TE (we need to address that next offseason). I do feel like Boyd has shown he has excellent hands and it seems like they've failed to creatively utilize him. His production is decent (19-242-0 on 28 targets), but it feels like maybe they should use him more and Uzomah/Kroft less. Uzomah hasn't exactly been efficient.

As for the targets thing, it's a little tricky to judge receivers on that. People often confuse missed targets with drops or just assume the receiver did something wrong if his target % is lower than another receiver's. In truth, outside passes to WRs are the lowest % throw a QB can make (especially mid and longer range), therefore WRs are almost always going to have a lower % than TEs. And TEs will be lower than RBs. Boldin's higher completion % and his low YPC aren't coincidental IMO.

I don't doubt that Boldin has 2-3 fewer drops, but I don't think that's the explanation for the discrepancy in their target percentages. Boldin is just catching easier stuff.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-17-2016, 12:43 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I agree on the "hands" target, although I feel there is no replacement for a solid TE (we need to address that next offseason). I do feel like Boyd has shown he has excellent hands and it seems like they've failed to creatively utilize him. His production is decent (19-242-0 on 28 targets), but it feels like maybe they should use him more and Uzomah/Kroft less. Uzomah hasn't exactly been efficient.

As for the targets thing, it's a little tricky to judge receivers on that. People often confuse missed targets with drops or just assume the receiver did something wrong if his target % is lower than another receiver's. In truth, outside passes to WRs are the lowest % throw a QB can make (especially mid and longer range), therefore WRs are almost always going to have a lower % than TEs. And TEs will be lower than RBs. Boldin's higher completion % and his low YPC aren't coincidental IMO.

I don't doubt that Boldin has 2-3 fewer drops, but I don't think that's the explanation for the discrepancy in their target percentages. Boldin is just catching easier stuff.

Oh, wasn't trying to say that the target/catches was entirely due to hands. My bad for not making that clear.

Boldin certainly does have better hands, but the target/catch bit was more pointing out the fact that having a slot receiver who's able to convert targets into catches that effectively, especially across the middle, is a great thing for a QB to be able to rely upon.

Imagine how Palmer would have been in '05-'07 if he didn't have Housh going across the middle and making those tough catches with such regularity.

Palmer in 2006 was a 62.3% completion passer, but when he targeted Housh, it was 68.2%. (+5.9%)
Palmer in 2010 was a 61.8% completion passer, but when he targeted Shipley, it was 69.3%. (+7.5%)
Dalton in 2012 was a 62.3% completion passer, but when he targeted Gresham, it was 68%. (+5.7%)
Dalton in 2015 was a 66.1% completion passer, but when he targeted Eifert, it was 72.2%. (+6.1%)

I just don't see that WR/TE on this current Bengals team. (Min. 12 targets, or 2 per game.) Dalton with a 67.4% completion: Boyd is +0.5%, Green is at +0.3%, LaFell is at -5.2%, Uzomah at -8.8%

Gio is propping up the group big time at +15.5% (82.9% throwing at Gio), but there's only so much you can do with a RB being your most reliable target, because he generally starts like 5 yards further back from the LoS than a WR does.

[Brownshoe]

(10-16-2016, 07:56 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I feel other teams have been taking that away lately. Dalton did throw a deep beauty to LaFell, but it went right between his hands.

To be fair to LaFell the defender was holding his arm until the very last second. Should have been a PI call.

[*ochocincos*]

It's well known that the Bengals OL has been horrible and has forced Dalton to throw it early to avoid a sack.
The Bengals don't really have any true blazers or high pointers outside of AJ Green to get downfield fast enough for Dalton to throw the deep ball before getting sacked.
While LaFell and Boyd are both faster than traditional possession receivers, they aren't true threats to take the top off the defense by any means.

[Joelist]

(10-17-2016, 01:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It's well known that the Bengals OL has been horrible and has forced Dalton to throw it early to avoid a sack.
The Bengals don't really have any true blazers or high pointers outside of AJ Green to get downfield fast enough for Dalton to throw the deep ball before getting sacked.
While LaFell and Boyd are both faster than traditional possession receivers, they aren't true threats to take the top off the defense by any means.

Which is an element Marvin Jones brought which we have not replaced. And with no Eifert we also have no reliable outlet receiver that is not a RB. Add in the sieve like OL and it is amazing we have the passing numbers we do.