Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[*Nately120*]

(07-07-2015, 11:33 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Russell Wilsons best year - 4324 total yards 26 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Andy Daltons best year - 4476 total yards 35 TDs 21 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more TDs to be elite, and Dalton needs less INTs to be elite

Wilson has a QB rating north of 97 in the post-season and has more wins there than our entire franchise does in 46 years.  Somehow I doubt throwing as many TDs as Andy Dalton did once is really on his radar.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 11:25 AM)djs7685 Wrote: You just named a bunch of guys that aren't very good at throwing the football. I never said that a guy that can ONLY run should be considered good, but if you have a guy that can run AND throw, you can't discount his ability to run.

Part of the reason that RW is mentioned right outside of the Brady, Manning, Rodgers discussion is because of his ability to both efficiently and effectively throw and run. Taking away either of those would be silly. That is my main point.

Got ya and makes sense...Again, I am not taking away or discounting their ability...I am saying that it is weighed to heavily for a limited number of QBs in ESPNs formula...

Last year 3 QBs rushed for 100 times or more...Wilson, Kaep and Newton...the next closest was Bortles (56) because he was running for his life...I look at it this way...It is a fad, a slight trend...Not a staple of the NFL...Most QB rushing attempts over a season are because of pressure and needing to escape and make a play...They are not the designed play such as they are for the above mentioned three....So, why should they be a statistical category?  

Again, I will ask...If 3 teams started having a WR or a RB throw the ball 7 times a game (equal to 100 attempts per year) should their be a statistical category made up for those players?  If AJ Green has 1400 yards and 10 TDs receiving and Sanu has 800 yards receiving and 4 TDs and 600 yards passing and  6 TDs then who had the better year as a "Wide Receiver"??   Would Sanu be considered an "elite" WR because he had those throwing statistics?  He had as much production?

This is what it comes down to....  Read option QBS become a RB when they run...Russell was the 16th ranked rusher in the NFL last year... http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&season=2014&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

No where in the official NFL stats does it mention rushing stats when ranking QBs... http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=PASSING&conference=null&season=2014&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=PASSING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1


Again, just my opinion on the matter....

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 11:33 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Russell Wilsons best year - 4324 total yards 26 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Andy Daltons best year - 4476 total yards 35 TDs 21 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more TDs to be elite, and Dalton needs less INTs to be elite

You're looking at bests... This thread and the entire point is about WORSTS and average times a QB is bad per season and in the playoffs.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 11:43 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Ok let's use the year he had 30 TDs

Wilson - 3607 total yards 30 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more yards to be elite. Obvioulsy he is leaning on his run game.

Andy's obviously leaning on you because honestly, you're the only person to go out of their way to diminish every other QB and prop him up on a regular basis. I'm sure he's proud.

Wilson is in the Rivers/Roethlisberger/Romo tier of QBs and it's not even debatable no matter how you try to spin it.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 11:19 AM)spazz70 Wrote: So, my apologies to both of you...Here was my confusion...I did not go and confirm the statistics that he laid out

When you mention ESPN and QBR as it was quoted..."Game by game QBR as per ESPN for 2013 & 2014"


"QBR" is a made up statistical line from ESPN.... "Passer Rating" is the official stat of the NFL...Does that make sense?


No, my theory is that any gimmick type of QB play will eventually be stopped outside of passing the ball as a QB is required to do...I am 44 years old and have seen a lot of football in my life...If a running QB was the wave of the future or would have ever been a no brainer scheme over an extended period of time then QBs like Tommy Frazier, Kordell Stewart, Randle El, Tebow, Crouch, RG3, Troy Smith, Charlie Ward, Andre Ware and many, many others would have been superstars in the NFL....I almost bet that if you look at the introduction of the read option in the NFL it would coincide with the ESPN QBR in the timeline...


I am not arguing that running the ball is part of the game but to compare a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to a Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson because they are better athletes makes no sense.....Let me put it this way...If several teams decided to start tossing the ball back to a WR or a RB 20 times a game and have them pass the ball would you think of this as a gimmick or a trend of the future?  Would you make a stat line for the WR or RB to enhance their "overall" rating?  

You are 100% right. ESPN lists QBR as their Total QBR and RAT as a passer rating. I always took Passer Rating as QBR. Totally my fault. I will amend the posts.

[WhoDeyWho]

Here is a list of the ratings for all of Daltons games.  Under 70 has been highlighted.

Bengals are 9-12 in those games.  I only count 10 such games in the last two seasons:

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 11:50 AM)djs7685 Wrote:

Andy's obviously leaning on you because honestly, you're the only person to go out of their way to diminish every other QB and prop him up on a regular basis. I'm sure he's proud.

Wilson is in the Rivers/Roethlisberger/Romo tier of QBs and it's not even debatable no matter how you try to spin it.

More insults/butthurt

You can have your opinion that Wilson is in that class. I'm not going to put him into that class until he proves he can play at that level, which he has not.

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 11:53 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: More insults/butthurt

You can have your opinion that Wilson is in that class. I'm not going to put him into that class until he proves he can play at that level, which he has not.

He averages just under 4,000 yards, over 27 TDs, and only 9 turnovers a year for his career. He also hasn't had an extreme down year or a high production year (aka Andy throwing 35 TDs once) to mess with the data, he plays at about the same level year in and year out.

Uhhhh...sure, he hasn't played at that level

It sounds like you're the "butthurt" one over RW being a great QB.

[spazz70]

I am not going to take anything away from Wilson and what he has accomplished...I will say that he landed in a very comfortable spot with one of the league's best defenses and running games...It is not hard to excel when put into a perfect situation such as he has had...I doubt that Wilson would have this success on any other team...To say that he is "elite"...My opinion? NO... An elite QB makes that play at the goal line in last year's SB...All of our collective heads would have exploded if that was Dalton on that last play.....

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 11:59 AM)djs7685 Wrote: He averages just under 4,000 yards, over 27 TDs, and only 9 turnovers a year for his career. He also hasn't had an extreme down year or a high production year (aka Andy throwing 35 TDs once) to mess with the data, he plays at about the same level year in and year out.

Uhhhh...sure, he hasn't played at that level

It sounds like you're the "butthurt" one over RW being a great QB.

He has also been on the most talented roster bar none the last 3 years, and Dalton hasn't

Wilson has had one of the best running games in the league. Lynch averages almost 1400 yards a year. Read option QBs like Wilson needs a strong running game otherwise he will be a Kaepernick 2.0. He's also had good receiving weapons in Golden Tate, and Percy Harvin. Not to mention the best defense / special teams in the league.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 11:53 AM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Here is a list of the ratings for all of Daltons games.  Under 70 has been highlighted.

Bengals are 9-12 in those games.  I only count 10 such games in the last two seasons:

This is much easier to read than my <> lists. Thank you!

Yep, I looked at the team's record as well in those games. They have managed to lose games where he had a good to great rating as well.

The point I wanted to illustrate is the frequency of and how low he can get compared to other QBs that maybe are considered as good or better. That, to me, is an indicator of talent and consistency based on Bill Belichick's "Floor" theory. Andy's problem is that he manages to find too many low point games and, to me, that tilts the odds of having a game that is below a winnable "bad". Especially when there are other variables... like the pressure from playoffs.

I want to go further into this and look at how Andy performs quarterly in both good and bad games. Having a QB who is capable of being that bad that frequently is NOT going to be a reliable way to go far into a post season. This is provable through stats from other QBs with one or two anomalies.

[BengalChris]

(07-07-2015, 11:33 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Russell Wilsons best year - 4324 total yards 26 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Andy Daltons best year - 4476 total yards 35 TDs 21 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more TDs to be elite, and Dalton needs less INTs to be elite

(07-07-2015, 11:43 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Ok let's use the year he had 30 TDs

Wilson - 3607 total yards 30 TDs 12 INTs/FUM

Wilson needs more yards to be elite. Obvioulsy he is leaning on his run game.

Oh my are you missing the big picture. Russell Wilson has been to two SBs and won one of them and came close to winning the second, all in his first 3 years in the league. Plus, he's won at least one playoff game in each of his 3 years, bringing his playoff record to 6-2. All he needs to be elite is to keep doing what he's been doing for a while longer to join to the NFLs upper echelon.

In comparison, well ..... has none of the above.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:03 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Oh my are you missing the big picture. Russell Wilson has been to two SBs and won one of them and came close to winning the second, all in his first 3 years in the league. Plus, he's won at least one playoff game in each of his 3 years, bringing his playoff record to 6-2. All he needs to be elite is to keep doing what he's been doing for a while longer to join to the NFLs upper echelon.

In comparison, well ..... has none of the above.

Are you a stats person or "winning is all that matters person"?  That is all this comes down to....  Terry Bradshaw is in the HOF...statistically he was horrible, regular season and postseason, but he has 4 SB titles...Ken Anderson was one of the best QBs, statistically, in about the same time frame but cannot even scratch the door to the HOF....  It is all perception....Wilson fell into a perfect storm...Is he elite because of that?

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:03 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: He has also been on the most talented roster bar none the last 3 years, and Dalton hasn't

Wilson has had one of the best running games in the league. Lynch averages almost 1400 yards a year. Read option QBs like Wilson needs a strong running game otherwise he will be a Kaepernick 2.0.  He's also had good receiving weapons in Golden Tate, and Percy Harvin. Not to mention the best defense / special teams in the league.

1. Honestly, how old are you? I know you probably won't tell me, but I've seriously never seen an adult that thinks TD/INT/yards is the only way to properly measure a QB. I really haven't.

2. You would FLIP out if I mentioned a "good receiving weapon" that only played in 258 out of the QB's 3,000+ snaps as a professional. Get a clue with Percy Harvin. Did you even know that be barely played with Wilson? You do watch football, right?

3. So if a QB has a good team around him, he can't be considered good himself? That's awesome logic. Remember that if Andy ever puts up decent numbers. Are you going to sit here and discount Andy's 2013 numbers because he had a top defense, top special teams, okay run game, and good receivers? Or does it only count when it's NOT Andy?

You can see your bias from miles and miles away. This is bordering on insanity now.

[PDub80]

(07-07-2015, 11:53 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: More insults/butthurt

You can have your opinion that Wilson is in that class. I'm not going to put him into that class until he proves he can play at that level, which he has not.

(07-07-2015, 11:59 AM)djs7685 Wrote: He averages just under 4,000 yards, over 27 TDs, and only 9 turnovers a year for his career. He also hasn't had an extreme down year or a high production year (aka Andy throwing 35 TDs once) to mess with the data, he plays at about the same level year in and year out.

Uhhhh...sure, he hasn't played at that level

It sounds like you're the "butthurt" one over RW being a great QB.

(07-07-2015, 12:02 PM)spazz70 Wrote: I am not going to take anything away from Wilson and what he has accomplished...I will say that he landed in a very comfortable spot with one of the league's best defenses and running games...It is not hard to excel when put into a perfect situation such as he has had...I doubt that Wilson would have this success on any other team...To say that he is "elite"...My opinion?  NO...  An elite QB makes that play at the goal line in last year's SB...All of our collective heads would have exploded if that was Dalton on that last play.....

(07-07-2015, 12:03 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: He has also been on the most talented roster bar none the last 3 years, and Dalton hasn't

Wilson has had one of the best running games in the league. Lynch averages almost 1400 yards a year. Read option QBs like Wilson needs a strong running game otherwise he will be a Kaepernick 2.0.  He's also had good receiving weapons in Golden Tate, and Percy Harvin. Not to mention the best defense / special teams in the league.

Russell Wilson is NOT an eilite passer of the football or a top 5,6,7, or 8 QB based on ability to traditionally play the position, which is still the most effective. He is an anomaly to this theory and is someone who's quarterly stats should be broken down to better understand his highs/lows and contributions. His team keeps him in games and he plays BETTER under pressure and as the season wears on***. It is unusual, but incredibly effective in this era of football. Put a top QB like Aaron Rogers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, Rivers, etc. on the Seahawks and they are a better offense. But put Wilson on the Packers, for example, and they are more than likely worse off. The Seahawks are able to use Wilson perfectly.

*** AD has NOT shown to be Russell Wilson in this way. He does not tend to have high moments or high streaks like Russell Wilson does.

Due to the nature and influence of the position: With a talented team around a QB, and the Bengals have tons of talent around AD, the thought here is not for for AD to have to hit a ceiling of high level play all the time, but rather to manage risk by not playing so poorly, particularly in key moments, that it cannot be overcome by those around him. So far, AD has been unreliable compared to other, more successful QBs. He is not doing what Wilson does nor is he doing what Rivers or Rogers does. Unfortunately, so far, he is doing what Dalton does and that is being capable of high highs and too many low lows.

If Andy Dalton kept passer rating of 95 for every single game in 2013... forget yards and TDs thrown for a second... the Bengals probably go to the Superbowl in 2013. The team around him was that good, but he found a low - which was fairly predictable looking at his last 5 games before the playoffs against SD.

His ratings went like this...

(@SD) 83.6
(IND) 120.5
(@PIT) 86.4
(MIN) 136.2
(BAL) 62.2
(SD) 67 (Playoffs)

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:11 PM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. Honestly, how old are you? I know you probably won't tell me, but I've seriously never seen an adult that thinks TD/INT/yards is the only way to properly measure a QB. I really haven't.

I made a post about my opinions on this but you did not respond...about 10 posts up this page (3)...Would really like your feedback...You asked about QBs and the consideration of running...I answered.....I do not consider any QB that is "schemed" to run the ball on a regular basis a QB statistic...He becomes a RB at that point...even the NFL recognizes it as so....

[Brownshoe]

(07-07-2015, 12:11 PM)djs7685 Wrote: 1. Honestly, how old are you? I know you probably won't tell me, but I've seriously never seen an adult that thinks TD/INT/yards is the only way to properly measure a QB. I really haven't.

2. You would FLIP out if I mentioned a "good receiving weapon" that only played in 258 out of the QB's 3,000+ snaps as a professional. Get a clue with Percy Harvin. Did you even know that be barely played with Wilson? You do watch football, right?

3. So if a QB has a good team around him, he can't be considered good himself? That's awesome logic. Remember that if Andy ever puts up decent numbers. Are you going to sit here and discount Andy's 2013 numbers because he had a top defense, top special teams, okay run game, and good receivers? Or does it only count when it's NOT Andy?

You can see your bias from miles and miles away. This is bordering on insanity now.

I'm not the one trying to say a QB is elite though. Wilson isn't elite because he has been on the best team in the league his whole career. He hasn't had one year where he didn't amazing talent all around him.

I'm 26, I'm a licensed engineer, I have dirty blonde hair, and blue eyes. Do you want to know my dick size too, or maybe how much my house is worth? How about if I have any kids, because I really don't know what all that has to do with anything.

[BengalChris]

(07-07-2015, 12:08 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Are you a stats person or "winning is all that matters person"?  That is all this comes down to....  Terry Bradshaw is in the HOF...statistically he was horrible, regular season and postseason, but he has 4 SB titles...Ken Anderson was one of the best QBs, statistically, in about the same time frame but cannot even scratch the door to the HOF....  It is all perception....Wilson fell into a perfect storm...Is he elite because of that?

Are you a stats person or "winning is all that matters person"?

I am neither. Why are these the only two options? And I don't see that Russell Wilson has cheated or done anything improper. He appears, from the outside, to play hard, play faster than and have his head in the game. He needs to keep doing what he's doing for longer, and if he does he'll be considered elite. Three years is just not long enough.

As far as the HOF goes, Bengals players get knocked down 3 or 4 rungs in the voting just because. Munoz was just so good that the Bengals penalty wasn't even a speed bump when it came to his voting. Kenny Anderson and Ken Riley both belong in the hall, but you and I both know that neither are likely to ever make it. Might have to die first or something like that.

Now, if they had won that SB, the HOF voting might be different and I'm guessing it would be.

Dan Marino never won a SB, but he was just so good that he's in the hall anyways. Plus, he didn't play for the Bengals.

[spazz70]

(07-07-2015, 12:21 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Are you a stats person or "winning is all that matters person"?

I am neither. Why are these the only two options? And I don't see that Russell Wilson has cheated or done anything improper. He appears, from the outside, to play hard, play faster than and have his head in the game. He needs to keep doing what he's doing for longer, and if he does he'll be considered elite. Three years is just not long enough.

As far as the HOF goes, Bengals players get knocked down 3 or 4 rungs in the voting just because. Munoz was just so good that the Bengals penalty wasn't even a speed bump when it came to his voting. Kenny Anderson and Ken Riley both belong in the hall, but you and I both know that neither are likely to ever make it. Might have to die first or something like that.

Now, if they had won that SB, the HOF voting might be different and I'm guessing it would be.

Dan Marino never won a SB, but he was just so good that he's in the hall anyways. Plus, he didn't play for the Bengals.

As far as Wilson...I want to see what happens when Lynch retires/leaves...They lose a few FAs or have injuries and the defense is no longer a top 10...What does he do then?  To me, that will be a test of his mettle.  

[djs7685]

(07-07-2015, 12:19 PM)spazz70 Wrote: I made a post about my opinions on this but you did not respond...about 10 posts up this page (3)...Would really like your feedback...You asked about QBs and the consideration of running...I answered.....I do not consider any QB that is "schemed" to run the ball on a regular basis a QB statistic...He becomes a RB at that point...even the NFL recognizes it as so....

He's still the same guy that's running the ball though. He doesn't transform into a different person when he runs or when he passes.

If you say "hey, who is a better QB, Wilson or Stafford?" I'll answer with Wilson every single time.

You don't get Wilson the QB without getting Wilson the RB too, right? He's still the same guy, and it's still silly to discount all of his abilities as a football player. It's not like he's lining up elsewhere to run. He's still playing QB, but he's running as a QB instead of passing as one. This could be a completely different conversation if he happened to be lining up at a different position consistently, but even then, he would still be the same guy doing it.

(07-07-2015, 12:21 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: I'm not the one trying to a QB is elite though. Wilson isn't elite because he has been on the best team in the league his whole career. He hasn't had one year where he didn't amazing talent all around him.

I'm 26, I'm a licensed engineer, I have dirty blonde hair, and blue eyes. Do you want to know my dick size too, or maybe how much my house is worth? How about if I have any kids, because I really don't know what all that has to do with anything.

I don't know if Wilson is exactly at the "elite" level, but he's surely in the "great" level. Like I said earlier, let's throw semantics out the window for a second, he's in the Roethlisberger, Rivers, Romo group of QBs. Outside of Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady, he's somewhere between the next guy and the 10th best guy in the league without question. You really can't be a bright guy and believe otherwise. Who cares about how good his team is? How the **** does that mean HE can't be good too? Is this real life?

It has to do with the fact that I just assumed you were a little kid or a teenager because of your TD/INT/yards obsession, but now you confirmed for me that you're just dumb, not young. Thanks! I'm no old timer myself, but I've noticed over the years that most people that obsess over only 2 or 3 stats are usually extremely casual fans or very young kids that don't know much better.

I noticed that you ignored my points about Andy. Are you ready to discount Andy's 2013 season or not? He had a great team around him that year, are you okay with saying that Andy isn't good because of it? Are you ready to discredit Andy in 2015 if he plays well? It's basically a general consensus that this team is very talented this season, so no matter what, Andy can't have a good year in your opinion because of that. Unless you're just a big hypocrite, which you are, so nevermind.