Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 02:41 AM)J24 Wrote: How is it off base? Can you elaborate instead of just ignoring the point because it goes against your argument?  In all honesty should Andy Dalton average 40 pass attempts in the playoffs?  Joe Flaco averages 30 pass attempts during the playoffs, Big Ben averages 30 pass attempts in the playoffs,  and Russell Wilson and averages 25 pass attempts per a game.  We can all agree that those three guys are have been the most successful young playoff Qbs right? Well maybe it has to do with the fact that there not asked to carry their respective teams and the coaching staff puts less pressure him.  

It doesn't go against my argument because it doesn't address any part of my argument. You found a random, small, arbitrary, unrelated stat to use as some sort of Andy Dalton Alamo.

Since I believe in the best in people I will assume you are interested in getting right and not just feeling right, so I will humor you.


Andy's attempts and (passer rating) in his 4 playoff games...

HOU - 42 (51.4)
HOU - 30 (44.7)
SD - 51 (67)
IND - 35 (63.4)

- The above debunks your theory of his number of attempts causing his level low level of play to fall lower. Note how in the game where he had the lowest number of attempts he had his worst passer rating. Note that the game where he had his highest number of attempts he had his highest passer rating.

- You mention Joe Flacco & Ben's (a certain HOFer) attempts and average - in JUST the playoffs, btw. Looking at the game logs, yeah, they have games where they throw it 25 or 27 times, but also games where they throw it 30 or 40 times. I don't see this indicative of anything or how it relates. Do you really think their coaches are sitting there thinking they have to limit those guys? But in the defense of keeping a sub par player like Dalton on the roster, THAT is the plan? "He's just as good.... if he doesn't play." Why not just keep working to find a QB who CAN play and isn't so limited or volatile?

- Andy throws the ball more because the Bengals are playing from behind. If they weren't behind, they wouldn't throw as much. The SD game they were behind from the 6:46 left int he 3rd quarter on. So, yeah, he has a lot of attempts that game, which skews this average you have brought in.

The SD game is an interesting one to me, so lets look at the game and try to find the reason for 51 attempts. People bring up crappy D or the running game, etc. I just went back through the game logs to see some break down of what happened. Here is what I found.

1st half 

- The D held the Chargers to 7 points in the first half. The Bengals were up 10-7 at the half.
- Bernard's fumble on the SD 16 yard line took certain points off the board, but did NOT lead to any SD points the following drive (CIN got the ball back at their own 32 from a SD punt).
- Ends 10-7 Bengals up.


2nd half 

- Short opening drive for CIN
- SD scores TD (10-14)
- Dalton Fumbles on CIN 25 yard line; SD kicks field goal (10-17 SD)
- NEXT POSSESSION 3 & out as Dalton throws 3rd down INT on the Bengals 33 yard line which was returned to the Bengals 3;
SD kicks field goal (10-20)
- NEXT POSSESSION Dalton throws INT. SD ball at the 50 yard line due to penalty. The D stops them from scoring anything.
- THIS IS WHERE THE BENGALS START THROWING LIKE CRAZY.... down 10 with 8 mins left. It gets them nowhere, but there is your 51 attempts comes from.
- 3 mins left; Brown runs for 58 yards and a TD (10-27 SD)

People blaming the D for that loss either don't remember the game, didn't watch the game, or are really big Andy Dalton fans. The D gave up only 7 points in the 1st half and at one point in the second half had 3 straight short fields of 25, 3, & 50 yards due to Dalton turnovers and only gave up 6 points from those. The offense could NOT score from there on out. 

Look at how the game unfolded for yourself (WARNING: If you have a #14 Dalton jersey, hide your lighters because you might want to burn it)...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=340105004&period=1


- The only conclusion on Andy's workload and how it effects the Bengals I can draw at this point is that it might not be the end of the world if his workload drops to 0 attempts. A lot of players (the D) have taken unfair criticism from that SD game when it was clearly AD who filled his pants and stunk the place up. I know you think it is unfair for Andy to have to have 51 attempts, but that's his fault and his job and what he gets paid to do. I just want him to do it not as badly.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-08-2015, 02:41 AM)J24 Wrote: How is it off base? Can you elaborate instead of just ignoring the point because it goes against your argument?  In all honesty should Andy Dalton average 40 pass attempts in the playoffs?  Joe Flaco averages 30 pass attempts during the playoffs, Big Ben averages 30 pass attempts in the playoffs,  and Russell Wilson and averages 25 pass attempts per a game.  We can all agree that those three guys are have been the most successful young playoff Qbs right? Well maybe it has to do with the fact that there not asked to carry their respective teams and the coaching staff puts less pressure him.  

This may come as a shock, but when you're playing from behind you're going to throw more. 

Take the San Diego game.  34 of Dalton's 51 attempts came in the 2nd half.  You know what else came in the 2nd half?  Being outscored 20-0, and playing from behind the final 25 minutes.

Simply saying he was forced to throw it 51 times, without any further explanation, doesn't really tell much of the story.  The gameplan, at least relative to his workload, started out pretty conservatively.  He was on pace for 34 attempts.  Now imagine had we taken a big early lead and the situation was reversed, and we dialed it back and tried to run clock.  Andy, with 17 attempts at the half, could very well have finished with under 30 attempts.

The fact of the matter is he's lost every single playoff game.  Meaning, he's played with a 2nd half deficit in every single playoff game.  In 3 of the 4 games we've lost by 16 or more points.  (16, 17, 21)  Think about that.  Show a quarterback that's going to have a low amount of attempts in games like that and I'll show a you team that didn't even attempt to win.

So does the coaching staff and team actively gameplan to put more on Andy's shoulders in the playoffs or are the increased attempts simply explained by the fact these team is playing from behind in these games? 

You mention Flacco and Sir Rapes A Lot.  Again, look at the circumstances.  The majority of their playoff games have been wins.  Wins usually dictate sitting on the ball at some point.  I would argue that if you pulled 4 random losses for them and pulled 4 wins for Andy you'd see the attempts flip flop in the others favor.

So I really think a tremendous amount of time is wasted even entertaining the idea that Andy is asked to do much.  Asking him to throw a great deal when playing from behind is simply asking to try to win.  Because if you're not throwing when you're down double digits in the 2nd half then you're not trying at all.  And if you can't ask that of your quarterback then that speaks volumes. 

When you're making excuses as to why your QB isn't good enough to handle an increased workload then I think you've really just agreed with his detractors, whether you realize it or not.  Saying Andy isn't good enough to handle an elite workload, or whatever new excuse is used, really just means he's not good enough period.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 08:57 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So I really think a tremendous amount of time is wasted even entertaining the idea that Andy is asked to do much.  Asking him to throw a great deal when playing from behind is simply asking to try to win.  Because if you're not throwing when you're down double digits in the 2nd half then you're not trying at all.  And if you can't ask that of your quarterback then that speaks volumes. 

When you're making excuses as to why your QB isn't good enough to handle an increased workload then I think you've really just agreed with his detractors, whether you realize it or not.

I've always thought the whole "X is asked to do too much" and "Y isn't asked to do much" is quite the bullshit excuse.

As I pointed out earlier, outside of some of the extremely pass heavy teams, most QBs in the league are going to be within a few passing attempts + rushing attempts per game away from each other. If you are a person that thinks a QB that averages 34 touches has an "elite workload" and a guy with 30 touches "isn't asked to do much for his team", then you may have serious mental issues.

There are soooooo many variables that dictate attempts that it's just a stupid statement to make that any QB in the NFL isn't asked to do much for their team. It's flat out dumb. There is no team in the league that runs the ball on almost every down, and there's no team in the league that is going to sign a QB just to keep the ball away from him when it's the most important position on the team. The ball goes into his hands on every play, and even the 75 rated Ponder averaged over 30 passing + rushing attempts when Adrian Peterson was busy rushing for 2,100 yards a couple of years ago. Now that the team has Hill/Bernard, a consensus top 10 and to most people a top 5 duo, are we going to bash Andy because of that? I highly doubt many of his biggest supporters will be on board for that.

The myth that any NFL QB isn't "asked to do much" needs to be put to rest. It's an absurd argument.

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 09:12 AM)djs7685 Wrote: I've always thought the whole "X is asked to do too much" and "Y isn't asked to do much" is quite the bullshit excuse.

As I pointed out earlier, outside of some of the extremely pass heavy teams, most QBs in the league are going to be within a few passing attempts + rushing attempts per game away from each other. If you are a person that thinks a QB that averages 34 touches has an "elite workload" and a guy with 30 touches "isn't asked to do much for his team", then you may have serious mental issues.

There are soooooo many variables that dictate attempts that it's just a stupid statement to make that any QB in the NFL isn't asked to do much for their team. It's flat out dumb. There is no team in the league that runs the ball on almost every down, and there's no team in the league that is going to sign a QB just to keep the ball away from him when it's the most important position on the team. The ball goes into his hands on every play, and even the 75 rated Ponder averaged over 30 passing + rushing attempts when Adrian Peterson was busy rushing for 2,100 yards a couple of years ago. Now that the team has Hill/Bernard, a consensus top 10 and to most people a top 5 duo, are we going to bash Andy because of that? I highly doubt many of his biggest supporters will be on board for that.

The myth that any NFL QB isn't "asked to do much" needs to be put to rest. It's an absurd argument.

Look, I think you have a lot of valid points, but they are getting lost because you are slipping in some mean words in there. Even if it is frustrating, a good, fun discussion is what we should be having abut the Bengals and not belittling others, even if they fired shots first.

I took it as the guy was asking about attempts having an influence on Andy's play and trying to see if that might influence anything negative. Nothing dumb or showing anyone has mental issues about that. A few posts up, I broke down the SD game where he had a lot of attempts. Simple as that.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 09:45 AM)PDub80 Wrote: Look, I think you have a lot of valid points, but they are getting lost because you are slipping in some mean words in there. Even if it is frustrating, a good, fun discussion is what we should be having abut the Bengals and not belittling others, even if they fired shots first.

I took it as the guy was asking about attempts having an influence on Andy's play and trying to see if that might influence anything negative. Nothing dumb or showing anyone has mental issues about that. A few posts up, I broke down the SD game where he had a lot of attempts. Simple as that.

[spazz70]

(07-08-2015, 07:55 AM)PDub80 Wrote: It doesn't go against my argument because it doesn't address any part of my argument. You found a random, small, arbitrary, unrelated stat to use as some sort of Andy Dalton Alamo.

Since I believe in the best in people I will assume you are interested in getting right and not just feeling right, so I will humor you.


Andy's attempts and (passer rating) in his 4 playoff games...

HOU - 42 (51.4)
HOU - 30 (44.7)
SD - 51 (67)
IND - 35 (63.4)

- The above debunks your theory of his number of attempts causing his level low level of play to fall lower. Note how in the game where he had the lowest number of attempts he had his worst passer rating. Note that the game where he had his highest number of attempts he had his highest passer rating.

- You mention Joe Flacco & Ben's (a certain HOFer) attempts and average - in JUST the playoffs, btw. Looking at the game logs, yeah, they have games where they throw it 25 or 27 times, but also games where they throw it 30 or 40 times. I don't see this indicative of anything or how it relates. Do you really think their coaches are sitting there thinking they have to limit those guys? But in the defense of keeping a sub par player like Dalton on the roster, THAT is the plan? "He's just as good.... if he doesn't play." Why not just keep working to find a QB who CAN play and isn't so limited or volatile?

- Andy throws the ball more because the Bengals are playing from behind. If they weren't behind, they wouldn't throw as much. The SD game they were behind from the 6:46 left int he 3rd quarter on. So, yeah, he has a lot of attempts that game, which skews this average you have brought in.

The SD game is an interesting one to me, so lets look at the game and try to find the reason for 51 attempts. People bring up crappy D or the running game, etc. I just went back through the game logs to see some break down of what happened. Here is what I found.

1st half 

- The D held the Chargers to 7 points in the first half. The Bengals were up 10-7 at the half.
- Bernard's fumble on the SD 16 yard line took certain points off the board, but did NOT lead to any SD points the following drive (CIN got the ball back at their own 32 from a SD punt).
- Ends 10-7 Bengals up.


2nd half 

- Short opening drive for CIN
- SD scores TD (10-14)
- Dalton Fumbles on CIN 25 yard line; SD kicks field goal (10-17 SD)
- NEXT POSSESSION 3 & out as Dalton throws 3rd down INT on the Bengals 33 yard line which was returned to the Bengals 3;
SD kicks field goal (10-20)
- NEXT POSSESSION Dalton throws INT. SD ball at the 50 yard line due to penalty. The D stops them from scoring anything.
- THIS IS WHERE THE BENGALS START THROWING LIKE CRAZY.... down 10 with 8 mins left. It gets them nowhere, but there is your 51 attempts comes from.
- 3 mins left; Brown runs for 58 yards and a TD (10-27 SD)

People blaming the D for that loss either don't remember the game, didn't watch the game, or are really big Andy Dalton fans. The D gave up only 7 points in the 1st half and at one point in the second half had 3 straight short fields of 25, 3, & 50 yards due to Dalton turnovers and only gave up 6 points from those. The offense could NOT score from there on out. 

Look at how the game unfolded for yourself (WARNING: If you have a #14 Dalton jersey, hide your lighters because you might want to burn it)...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=340105004&period=1


- The only conclusion on Andy's workload and how it effects the Bengals I can draw at this point is that it might not be the end of the world if his workload drops to 0 attempts. A lot of players (the D) have taken unfair criticism from that SD game when it was clearly AD who filled his pants and stunk the place up. I know you think it is unfair for Andy to have to have 51 attempts, but that's his fault and his job and what he gets paid to do. I just want him to do it not as badly.

Again, convenient things for your argument.  I am not defending Dalton with this point...I am questioning the coaching decisions...BJGE was averaging 5.5 ypc in that game...He came out in the second half and was in on the first series...he did not have one more attempt the rest of the game..He just had a very good game in SD a few weeks earlier and we just abandon his play after one series in the second half.....Again, we know Dalton's faults...Why put more pressure on him in the second half by abandoning what is working?

[*Nately120*]

(07-08-2015, 02:21 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So basically, it comes down to "if".

If Dalton played in a weaker division, he'd be a better QB. 

ehhhh...

So why do people keep comparing Dalton to Wilson?  Wilson is in a division that has been as good as the AFC North almost as long as Dalton has been around.  Why not compare Dalton to Andrew Luck?  There have been years when the AFC South has boasted the 2 worst teams in football.

The Titans had 2 whole wins last season, the Texans had 2 whole wins the season before, and the Jaguars somehow managed to stink MORE than those 2 teams since Luck showed up.  You can't act like the AFC North is the most torturous place to be a QB without giving props to our last QB (who played in the AFC North when the Steelers and Ravens were arguably better), or without using the same "hard division" excuse to absolve Wilson.

There, pick on Andrew Luck for having an easy division.  Same with Tom Brady.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets have been all kinds of stank lately.  Funny how those two elite QBs are so lucky to be in bad divisions.  Lucky, eh?

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 11:05 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Again, convenient things for your argument.  I am not defending Dalton with this point...I am questioning the coaching decisions...BJGE was averaging 5.5 ypc in that game...He came out in the second half and was in on the first series...he did not have one more attempt the rest of the game..He just had a very good game in SD a few weeks earlier and we just abandon his play after one series in the second half.....Again, we know Dalton's faults...Why put more pressure on him in the second half by abandoning what is working?

Convenient? I guess - If you call AD going back to back to back series with turnovers on a short field convenient. Ha!

Look,

The coaches don't play the game. AD does. But, lets look at your idea of the Bengals not running the ball....

1st Half

If you look at the play calling, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINAL 1:30 of the 1st half, the Bengals ran the ball 13 times and passed 13 times. I did NOT count Dalton's own recovered fumble on a 1 yard scramble as a run or a pass. I excluded the plays in the 2min drill because, yeah, they are going to pass in that situation where they got the ball back with 1:30 left in the half.

2nd Half

To start the 2nd half, they ran the ball two straight times and then had a Dalton scramble before punting.

San Diego scored a TD on their 1st possession of the 2nd half, making the score 10-14 (SD up).

Guess what happened the next 3 possessions after that? The 3 turnovers in a row by Dalton. 1 was the self inflicted fumble where nobody touched him on the Bengals own 25 yard line. The other were an INT on the Bengals 3, and the 3rd an INT on the 50 yard line. After all of that, the Chargers only managed another 6 points until the D gave up a long TD run in garbage time (about 3 min left in the game).

The Bengals didn't start throwing a bunch until they were down 10 points towards the end of the 3rd. Also, please note that in the NFL, if your rushing attempts = your passing attempts (like in the first half of that game) you are considered an incredibly run heavy offense. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47694/260/2014-passrun-rate-projections of 2014 projections of run/pass balance based on "Pass/Run %" Note the Bengals at 32 as projecting to be the most run heavy team.

To blame the coaches for the SD game, or a bad game plan, or putting too much on AD does not add up to what happened or the order that it happened in.

Also, to point to BJGE as some sort of monster by that point in the 2013 season is unrealistic. There's a reason he was gone after that - gone from the entire NFL, BTW. He was slowing down, dinged up, and Gio had come into his own. BJGE avg only 3.4 yards for the season. To think he was going to all of a sudden carry for a bunch against SD is unrealistic. Go look at some of his averages and number of carries leading up to that game. Not consistent or impressive.

Bottom line: Blaming the coaches or D for the SD loss does not hold up. Unproductive stretches coupled with Gio's turnover and AD's tripple meltdown in the 3rd quarter sealed that deal.

Silver lining: If the Bengals can get AD, or whoever is QB, to only have one turnover in a game like the SD playoffs and instead turn those good drives into TD... they WIN those hard fought games. That is my whole point. AD doesn't have to be consistently awesome... just not consistently as bad.

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 12:23 PM)Nately120 Wrote: So why do people keep comparing Dalton to Wilson?  Wilson is in a division that has been as good as the AFC North almost as long as Dalton has been around.  Why not compare Dalton to Andrew Luck?  There have been years when the AFC South has boasted the 2 worst teams in football.

The Titans had 2 whole wins last season, the Texans had 2 whole wins the season before, and the Jaguars somehow managed to stink MORE than those 2 teams since Luck showed up.  You can't act like the AFC North is the most torturous place to be a QB without giving props to our last QB (who played in the AFC North when the Steelers and Ravens were arguably better), or without using the same "hard division" excuse to absolve Wilson.

There, pick on Andrew Luck for having an easy division.  Same with Tom Brady.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets have been all kinds of stank lately.  Funny how those two elite QBs are so lucky to be in bad divisions.  Lucky, eh?

Because Russell Wilson has similar luls in play as AD, is short, and doesn't bring a cannon arm. He is also surrounded by a really talented team. Although, I just read a depressing article covering Wilson's contract talks on ESPN where part of it talked of how little talent Wilson has actually had on his team at WR. AD is surrounded by absolute monsters at WR & TE in comparison. More so than almost anyone else in the NFL. Point to the injuries at WR for AD and I will point to all of the UDFAs that Wilson has had to throw to.

While AD & Wilson are similar in physical talent, Russel comes alive at key moments and when he does he plays like a man possessed. AD has shrunk down. I sincerely hope that changes.

Luck is a completely different player as well and in totally different circumstances.

AD plays in what I consider the toughest division in the NFL since 2003. THAT is tough. But, I also believe that that fact, coupled with the talent around him, should have made him a better player. Iron sharpens iron, if you will.

There should be an * next to the Patriots titles. Not for the cheating, but for the weak division they get to stomp through on their way to a 1st round by and home field advantage for most of their playoff births.

[Shake n Blake]

1. Russell Wilson is definitely better than Dalton, although I think the Seahawks with Dalton would still be better than the Bengals with Wilson. Primarily because I just believe the Seahawks have better coaching in place. I do think Wilson is better than Dalton, but I'm not sure he'd win any playoff games here.

2. Dalton's 2 best seasons happen to be the seasons where he had the most attempts. So I don't think fewer attempts will equal better performance from Dalton.

3. I've never understood why some people act like Dalton has been terrible in regular season. He hasn't. Sure he ranked 25th in passer rating last year, but lets be honest. Losing AJ for parts of 5+ games as well as MLJ, Eifert and Gio surely hurt his numbers. Any QB's performance would suffer with so many key guys missing.

In the previous 2 years, Dalton ranked 13th and 15th in passer rating. Out of 40+ qualifying QB's, that's solid. Period. Not great or anything, and I'd love to find a better option, but for people to pretend that his performance was poor/weak/subpar is silly.

My biggest gripe with Dalton is that he needs to trim the INT's a bit and play better against the Ravens and Browns. Those 2 teams have pretty much owned him for 2-3 seasons.

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 02:26 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Russell Wilson is definitely better than Dalton, although I think the Seahawks with Dalton would still be better than the Bengals with Wilson. Primarily because I just believe the Seahawks have better coaching in place. I do think Wilson is better than Dalton, but I'm not sure he'd win any playoff games here.

2. Dalton's 2 best seasons happen to be the seasons where he had the most attempts. So I don't think fewer attempts will equal better performance from Dalton.

3. I've never understood why some people act like Dalton has been terrible in regular season. He hasn't. Sure he ranked 25th in passer rating last year, but lets be honest. Losing AJ for parts of 5+ games as well as MLJ, Eifert and Gio surely hurt his numbers. Any QB's performance would suffer with so many key guys missing.

In the previous 2 years, Dalton ranked 13th and 15th in passer rating. Out of 40+ qualifying QB's, that's solid. Period. Not great or anything, and I'd love to find a better option, but for people to pretend that his performance was poor/weak/subpar is silly.

My biggest gripe with Dalton is that he needs to trim the INT's a bit and play better against the Ravens and Browns. Those 2 teams have pretty much owned him for 2-3 seasons.

I agree with a lot of this, with the exception of coaching still being a problem. I like where the coaches are at today. Doesn't mean it was worth it and they shouldn't have been fired after 2010, but reality is that they have been pretty good since then.

You're right on the Browns and Ravens for sure!

I think his problem is that he still has it in him to hit a low level of play. It isn't how high he can play that I think effects the Bengals. It is the low rut he can get into on any random week that seems to find him more often than not. He needs to progress past being capable of that level of screwing up.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-07-2015, 10:28 AM)djs7685 Wrote: I don't need a good argument for a guy with his head too far up Andy's ass like you, so just keep making up more excuses for your BFF. It has gotten to the point where it's entertaining to see your constant, never ending spin and excuse for EVERY SINGLE negative that someone brings up.

I've yet to see something that you haven't found an excuse for, no matter how dumb it ends up being.

He's right, though....you default to name-calling and dance around the point that you can't deny his argument. 

Why not take the time to compare Andy's QBR or whatever metric you desire against other QBs facing the teams in his division?  How has Luck, Brady, Manning, Rogers, etc. fared against the teams that Andy faces twice a year.  Then include the ones you feel are also better than Andy, like Tannehill and the like. 

If you are going to go 100% by stats and not use your own eyes, then you have to account for different variables.  Injuries and players lost occur on all teams, but the opponents they face can be drastically different.  Take the three pancakes Brady has smacked around for what seems like a decade.  Ditto Luck and the crappy AFC South. 

As far as anyone's head being up Andy's ass, I can't say for sure.  However, if you duck this straightforward proposal it will be clear that your head resides in your own ass.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 04:11 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: He's right, though....you default to name-calling and dance around the point that you can't deny his argument. 

Why not take the time to compare Andy's QBR or whatever metric you desire against other QBs facing the teams in his division?  How has Luck, Brady, Manning, Rogers, etc. fared against the teams that Andy faces twice a year.  Then include the ones you feel are also better than Andy, like Tannehill and the like. 

If you are going to go 100% by stats and not use your own eyes, then you have to account for different variables.  Injuries and players lost occur on all teams, but the opponents they face can be drastically different.  Take the three pancakes Brady has smacked around for what seems like a decade.  Ditto Luck and the crappy AFC South. 

As far as anyone's head being up Andy's ass, I can't say for sure.  However, if you duck this straightforward proposal it will be clear that your head resides in your own ass.

Well this definitely needed brought up yet again.

We don't even need to bring up other QBs. Andy needs to play better in the division, plain and simple. I don't care if the '85 Bears are in our division, he needs to play better in those games.

Period.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-07-2015, 12:39 PM)WhoDeyWho Wrote: Seems to me Dalton needs to play better against AFCN rivals.  He seems to do relatively well versus everybody else.  

Yeah.  I would love to see the comparison of Dalton vs. other NFL QBs against those defenses.  He has gotten better against them, with the exception of Cleveland???

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-08-2015, 04:14 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Well this definitely needed brought up yet again.

We don't even need to bring up other QBs. Andy needs to play better in the division, plain and simple. I don't care if the '85 Bears are in our division, he needs to play better in those games.

Period.

And you danced away from what is clearly a legitimate comparison.   Are you afraid of what you might find?  You make thread after thread, post after post, about Dalton's ineptitude yet you won't make a comparison that takes a huge variable out of the calculation of determining the best QBs.  It would go a long way to educating a number of folks here....including yourself. 

But hey, I get it...if you stick your head in the sand and pretend you are at the beach you won't have to risk being proved wrong.  I guess the best battles won are the ones you never really enter. 

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 04:21 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yeah.  I would love to see the comparison of Dalton vs. other NFL QBs against those defenses.  He has gotten better against them, with the exception of Cleveland???

Remember, this is not a question of who he plays good against, how often, etc. It is how often he is likely to have a bad game, and how bad is his average bad game. This shows how often Dalton's play hurts the team and his inconsistency. Who the game against is irrelevant and in another post in this thread I already debunked the idea that the same teams have figured him out every year, causing his numbers to be skewed.

I will work on this. It could be challenging to find a lot of them because they have to play them in the same season to be even close to accurate. I will just go with common division opponents to make it simpler.

Since we are talking low level of play I took Andy's lowest passer rating from the two games against division opponents and referenced them against the good QBs that also played against the AFCN. In 2014 I would say the other two divisions only had 4 good QBs. The idea that AD played bad against the AFCN is false. He was fine with everyone but the Browns. Regardless, I am happy to humor the nay sayers.....

2014 (Player/ AD)


Drew Brees

PIT 140 (5-0) / AD 83.7
CLE 89.3 (2-1) / AD 2.0
BAL 118.5 (3-1) / AD 89.3


Andrew Luck

PIT 91 / AD 83.7
CLE 59.8 / AD 2.0
BAL 72.8 / AD 89.3


Matt Ryan

PIT 86.2 / AD 89.3
CLE 86.7 / AD 2.0
BAL 102.9 / AD 83.7

Cam Newton

PIT 98.5 / AD 83.7
CLE 74.8 / AD 2.0
BAL 94.9 / AD 89.3

Does anyone need or want to see 2013? If so, I'll do it but honestly, I just glanced through Tannehill's numbers against the AFCN in 2013 and they beat Dalton's against all 3 opponents. I don't think it will be much different for the other QBs from that season.

NOTE: I started cross referencing just common opponents and then playoffs, etc. and it gets a little complicated. It doesn't look any different, really.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 04:25 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: And you danced away from what is clearly a legitimate comparison.   Are you afraid of what you might find?  You make thread after thread, post after post, about Dalton's ineptitude yet you won't make a comparison that takes a huge variable out of the calculation of determining the best QBs.  It would go a long way to educating a number of folks here....including yourself. 

But hey, I get it...if you stick your head in the sand and pretend you are at the beach you won't have to risk being proved wrong.  I guess the best battles won are the ones you never really enter. 

What the **** are you even talking about?

I think somebody either missed their meds or may be thinking of someone else. Where have I mentioned "Andy's ineptitude" anywhere?????

I'm usually just mentioning that other QBs (Russell Wilson) are clearly better even though some refuse to admit it. Andy isn't bad, RW is just better. I don't see the harm to poor Andy's feelings to say that.

Stop being such a sensitive little *****.

[spazz70]

(07-08-2015, 01:56 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Convenient? I guess - If you call AD going back to back to back series with turnovers on a short field convenient. Ha!

Look,

The coaches don't play the game. AD does. But, lets look at your idea of the Bengals not running the ball....





Guess what happened the next 3 possessions after that? The 3 turnovers in a row by Dalton. 1 was the self inflicted fumble where nobody touched him on the Bengals own 25 yard line. The other were an INT on the Bengals 3, and the 3rd an INT on the 50 yard line. After all of that, the Chargers only managed another 6 points until the D gave up a long TD run in garbage time (about 3 min left in the game).


To blame the coaches for the SD game, or a bad game plan, or putting too much on AD does not add up to what happened or the order that it happened in.

Just going to hit up this point...I can go back and look also...The next 3 series...Down 14-10, 17-10 and 20-10 and still in the early 4th Q...13 plays...4 rushes by GIO...8 passes from Dalton and Dalton's run which was a scramble from pressure....Again not excusing Dalton.....But why not BJGE back in the game when he is averaging 5.5 per carry ( I do not care if he was/is washed up, he was not in that game)...Why 9 pass plays out of 13 when we are not down by 2 scores until the 3rd possesion? It is not real hard...The coaches (most likely Gruden) jumped off the ship with what was working or made no adjustments at half time...I am not excusing Dalton's performance when it happened...I am asking why was he put into that situation when we all know that is not his strong suit?  It is so obvious..we have been shutout in every second have of every payoff game sans the 2 field goals against Houston....That is a coaching issue....period....Again...SHUTOUT except for 2 FGs in one game for 4 straight years.....SIMPLE TO SEE

[BengalChris]

You know I really don't know why you'all get caught up in all these numbers.

When it comes to the playoffs here are the numbers that stand out in the last 4 years:

These are totals for all 4 games combined.
Points in second half of all 4 games: 0
Highest offensive game output: 10 points
Lowest offensive output: 6 points (2nd Houston game - our offense made them look like the 85 Bears.)
Passing TDs: 1
INTs: 6
QB FUMs: 4
Other FUMs: 2 maybe 3, but I'm too lazy at the moment to see if there is a third one I forgot about
Total TOs: 12 maybe 13
Rushing TDs: 2
Defensive TDs: 1

Nobody and I mean nobody is going to win a playoff game by only scoring 10 points. Just doesn't happen.

Almost nobody is going win a playoff game by turning it over an average of 3 times. It can be done, but when you give the rock away like that your chances of winning are severely reduced. See 1st Houston game and SD game for examples of where turnovers just killed off any chance of winning and gave away any momentum the Bengals had.

Nobody and I mean nobody is going to win a playoff game by scoring exactly 0 points in the second half. Just simply not going to happen. If you aren't scoring, then you are giving the other team the ball back way too often and too quickly.

Playoff coaching has sucked the donkey dong. QB play in playoffs has also sucked the donkey dong. Running game has just been completely abandoned even with lead (see coaching comment at start of this paragraph). One passing TD in 4 games? Come on, any random NFL QB can do better than that.

Like it or not, Dalton hasn't proven he can be a good playoff QB as real game results have shown us.

Like it or not, Lewis hasn't proven he can coach in the playoffs as real game results have shown us.

Both of these two have a lot of suckingness lying at their feet come playoff time. Hue Jackson is overrated until he actually does something worthy of note. Same for Gunther. And, Mike Brown is the biggest donkey dong of them all, as he's presided over the longest playoff win drought in the NFL, in fact, the team hasn't won a playoff since he inherited the team.

Defending Dalton is a futile act that you'll lose every time. Defending Lewis' playoff coaching is like using your finger to plug a leaky dam. And, did I mention, Mike Brown sucks.

There's my rant about all this crap.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-08-2015, 04:25 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Remember, this is not a question of who he plays good against, how often, etc. It is how often he is likely to have a bad game, and how bad is his average bad game. This shows how often Dalton's play hurts the team and his inconsistency. Who the game against is irrelevant and in another post in this thread  I already debunked the idea that the same teams have figured him out every year, causing his numbers to be skewed.

I will work on this. It could be challenging to find a lot of them because they have to play them in the same season to be even close to accurate. I will just go with common division opponents to make it simpler.

Since we are talking low level of play I took Andy's lowest passer rating from the two games against division opponents and referenced them against the good QBs that also played against the AFCN. In 2014 I would say the other two divisions only had 4 good QBs. The idea that AD played bad against the AFCN is false. He was fine with everyone but the Browns. Regardless, I am happy to humor the nay sayers.....

2014 (Player/ AD)


Drew Brees

PIT 140 (5-0) / AD 83.7
CLE 89.3 (2-1) / AD 2.0
BAL 118.5 (3-1) / AD 89.3


Andrew Luck

PIT 91 / AD 83.7
CLE 59.8 / AD 2.0
BAL 72.8 / AD 89.3


Matt Ryan

PIT 86.2 / AD 89.3
CLE 86.7 / AD 2.0
BAL 102.9 / AD 83.7

Cam Newton

PIT 98.5 / AD 83.7
CLE 74.8 / AD 2.0
BAL 94.9 / AD 89.3

Does anyone need or want to see 2013? If so, I'll do it but honestly, I just glanced through Tannehill's numbers against the AFCN in 2013 and they beat Dalton's against all 3 opponents. I don't think it will be much different for the other QBs from that season.

NOTE: I started cross referencing just common opponents and then playoffs, etc. and it gets a little complicated. It doesn't look any different, really.

I'm pretty sure Dalton played two games against the Browns, steelers, and Ravens...Did you take the average?  And where did Sir Tom Brady end up?  Peyton Manning?