Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-08-2015, 04:27 PM)djs7685 Wrote: What the **** are you even talking about?

I think somebody either missed their meds or may be thinking of someone else. Where have I mentioned "Andy's ineptitude" anywhere?????

I'm usually just mentioning that other QBs (Russell Wilson) are clearly better even though some refuse to admit it. Andy isn't bad, RW is just better. I don't see the harm to poor Andy's feelings to say that.

Stop being such a sensitive little *****.

And he dances on and STILL dodges the question.  Fine.  Enjoy the beach.

[djs7685]

(07-08-2015, 10:11 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: And he dances on and STILL dodges the question.  Fine.  Enjoy the beach.

So instead of explaining your childish rant, you're just going to keep up with awkward sayings that don't even make sense?

Seems legit. Keep looking like a whining baby. It's par for the course with you.

I don't even know what you think I'm dodging. Are you saying I'm "dancing" because I won't do all of the work for something that I'm not even claiming that you won't do the work for yourself? WTF?

[Utts]

This is a fantastic way to help fill the time between now and when camp gets underway, but I think we're overthinking this way too much. At this point in his career we know what we've got with Andy Dalton. He's a middle of the pack QB at best with a confidence problem that seems to surface in big games.

We've had a Super Bowl caliber roster for a few seasons now. Even if we win a first round game, it's my opinion that Andy's consistency and confidence issues will never permit him to play well enough to get us into a Super Bowl much less win one. That's just too many tough games strung together. There's nothing on Andy's resume that would suggest otherwise, absolutely nothing. Everything up until now would suggest he's just not up to a deep playoff run. Of course there are exceptions and if we get good enough play from our defense for Andy to be our Trent Dilfer then I'll shower him with rose petals at the parade, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that one.

It wouldn't take much to upgrade the position, should they make it a priority. Of course Mike Brown is a patient man, and would have no problem waiting an ice age or two for Andy to pan out. I say the story is already written. We've seen the best of Andy Dalton, and there will be no chance of winning a Super Bowl as long as his bright red head is under center.

[PDub80]

(07-08-2015, 10:10 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I'm pretty sure Dalton played two games against the Browns, steelers, and Ravens...Did you take the average?  And where did Sir Tom Brady end up?  Peyton Manning?

For the division numbers I took the lowest performance since the other QBs did not get a second shot at it. Also, that is the topic of what Dalton has to do to get better: Raise his floor, not his ceiling.

I did look at other QBs' 2014 ratings as well and started compiling cross numbers. It gets tough to have a large sample size because of scheduling but Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Cutler, Tannehill etc. regular season numbers were similar spreads so I stopped because it wasn't anything substantially different*.

*NOTE: In reguards to common opponents, the playoffs were incredibly different. The way the playoff winning QBs play is in the 90s or 100+ almost every game - even with common opponents to Dalton the numbers are grossly different (playoff or regular season). Just looking at playoff performances Dalton mires in the 40s, 50s, and if the Bengals are lucky 60s.

For 2013 I just looked at Tannehill, a 2nd year starter that season, and stopped there because it was no better. I guess that's my point. I can try to find loopholes or exceptions to the rule but they are few and far between because my conclusion is true and there is no legit pattern or reasoning behind it from which to derive any other conclusion: Andy Dalton plays his worst games erratically and more often than nearly any other QB and without any sort of predictor. He is more likely to be bad, and his bad is more likely to be worse than almost any other starting QB in the league (at least 2 years starting) with the exception of Geno Smith, who is way way way worse in passer rating lows/frequency.

Looking through the ratings, it was evident that the Steelers, Ravens, etc. weren't putting the clamps down on every QB they faced. Andy really had very little problem with them. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick, who only faced one AFCN team last season, put up a better passer rating than Any's low (83.7) against that team (PIT 98.7).

Again, let me be clear about this, the average doesn't matter because we are not gauging how good Andy can be - he can be really good. Instead, we are looking at how low he can go any given week and how often he hits that low and against what teams (to find a pattern, if any). This, to me, seems to be the #1 predictor of playoff success for nearly every team. The numbers have shown that so far pretty much every time.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-09-2015, 08:35 AM)PDub80 Wrote: For the division numbers I took the lowest performance since the other QBs did not get a second shot at it. Also, that is the topic of what Dalton has to do to get better: Raise his floor, not his ceiling.

I did look at other QBs' 2014 ratings as well and started compiling cross numbers. It gets tough to have a large sample size because of scheduling but Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Cutler, Tannehill etc. regular season numbers were similar spreads so I stopped because it wasn't anything substantially different*.

I understand what you are saying about floor and not ceiling, but this also neglects the fact that a defense is seeing an offense for a second time.  You could look at it both ways.  I would rather have the average.  Regardless, I appreciate the time you took to look at this and post a small sample of the numbers.  I will try to get some time this weekend and look in to more of what I was trying to communicate. 

[PDub80]

(07-09-2015, 09:36 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I understand what you are saying about floor and not ceiling, but this also neglects the fact that a defense is seeing an offense for a second time.  You could look at it both ways.  I would rather have the average.  Regardless, I appreciate the time you took to look at this and post a small sample of the numbers.  I will try to get some time this weekend and look in to more of what I was trying to communicate. 

I understand the line of thinking you are on, for sure. Just some thoughts below...

The offense also has a familiarity with the defense as well. It works both ways so I considered it a wash. Unless we can show a trend where the 1st time the offense plays a defense passer rating is lower and then 2nd time it gets higher with some sort of regularity, or vice vera, I don't see how it is a reliable indicator or factor.

I will do a comparison....

Dalton against the AFCN. 1st time/2nd time.

2014
BAL 98.7/89.3
CLE 2.0/53.6
PIT 128.8/83.7

2013
BAL 52.3/62.2
CLE 58.2/62.7
PIT 97.2/86.4

2012
BAL 65.3/101.5
CLE 128.2/87.3
PIT 56.4/58.8

Conclusion: The 2nd time he plays an opponent bares absolutely no factor, rhyme, or reason. But that's the problem, IMO. If it was something that was consistent or identifiable it could be worked on or fixed or game planned for, right? It's not. It's inconsistency and randomness. THAT is why I have been of the opinion that Andy Dalton is not a long term, viable option to build a championship contender or a team that has a year after year legit shot at winning a Superbowl. He is too bad to be considered good.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-08-2015, 02:34 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I agree with a lot of this, with the exception of coaching still being a problem. I like where the coaches are at today. Doesn't mean it was worth it and they shouldn't have been fired after 2010, but reality is that they have been pretty good since then.

You're right on the Browns and Ravens for sure!

I think his problem is that he still has it in him to hit a low level of play. It isn't how high he can play that I think effects the Bengals. It is the low rut he can get into on any random week that seems to find him more often than not. He needs to progress past being capable of that level of screwing up.

The team has been winning more consistently on a year to year basis, but the choking problem that has been a theme during Marv's entire tenure is still there. 

I forgot just how good Dalton was against the Ravens last year, so really the only division team he's had problems with recently is the Browns. 

When Dalton is on, he can play on a Drew Brees-level. We've witnessed this with all the times he's been nominated for POW or FedEx air awards. It would be nice to see Dalton raise his floor, but saying that his floor "finds him more often than not" isn't really accurate. Looking over the game logs, Dalton only had 4 bad games last year. Some would want to include the Titans game, but I think he played well that day. Gio bobbled a solid pass that was intercepted, and that really hurt Dalton's rating, but Dalton looked crisp that day.

Anti-Andy folks love pointing out the 2.0 game over and over again, but that game was clearly a fluke. The 2nd lowest rating of Andy's career was a 40.8 rating against the 49ers way back in the 3rd game of his career. So the 2.0 game isn't something we're going to see often. I doubt he'll ever have a game that bad again in his career. All QB's have games with passer ratings in the 40's, 50's and 60's. 

If Dalton could throw a few less INT's and win some playoff games, I'd be perfectly content with him. Unfortunately, I think he will always be on the high end with his INT% and I don't see a playoff win happening with the coaches we have in place. We'll see.

[Utts]

(07-09-2015, 02:29 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I forgot just how good Dalton was against the Ravens last year, so really the only division team he's had problems with recently is the Browns. 

Please do not misinterpret this as a defense of Dalton, but AJ has a problem with the Browns too.

[Shake n Blake]

(07-09-2015, 05:37 PM)Utts Wrote: Please do not misinterpret this as a defense of Dalton, but AJ has a problem with the Browns too.

That's not defending Dalton, that's just being honest. Love AJ, but Haden owns a permanent residence in his head.

I'm sure that doesn't help Dalton much, but then again, he just looks like he's lost against the Browns these days.

Even if AJ is getting owned, Andy should be able to find someone else.

[EatonFan]

I'm just wondering who will win their first playoff game between Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton. Of course the third option is neither will win one.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-09-2015, 05:37 PM)Utts Wrote: Please do not misinterpret this as a defense of Dalton, but AJ has a problem with the Browns too.

Interestingly, it seems that Gruden was better against the Browns and Hue is better against the steelers and Ravens, but much worse against the Browns.