Mccarron

[lostpoet2]

I think we need a solid backup QB as long as Ogbuehi and Fisher are starting. (in fact, I might just need to make this my signature)

[*Nately120*]

I said during last off-season that McCarron and Hue in Cleveland would be, in my mind, an interesting and likable (even as a Bengals fan) combination. I just want them to be good enough to beat the Steelers once per year again.

[Devils Advocate]

(01-03-2017, 02:25 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I agree Fred. We're not getting a 1st Round pick for McCarron. Maybe if he had 2-3 years on his rookie deal...but no team will give up a 1st Round pick for a guy in the last year of his contract.

I think he goes to Houston. Osweiler has essentially 1 huge year on his contract. Bring McCarron in for 1 year to play on a rookie deal, then waive Osweiler and sign McCarron.

I don't know how much his current contract will matter. Possession is nine tenths the law. Teams don't let a good QB even sniff the open market (if AJ turns out to be good, that is). So just having (a good QB) on your roster is 99% of the battle. Once he's there, he ain't leaving. That's the risk a needy team takes by hoping to sign him as a FA.

I don't know why some of you believe he's not worth a 1st. For a team in desperate need of stability there, he's worth every bit of a that. For team within the division, he's worth more.

[fredtoast]

(01-03-2017, 02:46 PM)Devils Advocate Wrote: I don't know why some of you believe he's not worth a 1st.

Because of history.

Teams never give up a first round pick for a back up QB.  McCarron looked good as a backup, but not better than any back up ever.

[Benton]

(01-03-2017, 02:46 PM)Devils Advocate Wrote: I don't know how much his current contract will matter. Possession is nine tenths the law. Teams don't let a good QB even sniff the open market (if AJ turns out to be good, that is). So just having (a good QB) on your roster is 99% of the battle. Once he's there, he ain't leaving. That's the risk a needy team takes by hoping to sign him as a FA.

I don't know why some of you believe he's not worth a 1st. For a team in desperate need of stability there, he's worth every bit of a that. For team within the division, he's worth more.

Agreed.

For a team that thinks McCarron (or whoever) could be their guy, you trade for him if he's got 1 week, 1 year or 10 years on his deal. It doesn't matter since you're probably going to be negotiating a new deal with the guy. Having him on your roster before other teams lets you kick the tires (have your medical staff, coaching staff and teammates get to know him). That's a huge advantage even if the guy holds out for the open market. Just a few months with the coaches and staff can let the team know if he's worth tens of millions, or if you need to look elsewhere.

Plus, they can work on negotiating a contract for months, whereas other teams don't have that jumpstart.

As far as McCarron, I wouldn't trade him for less than a first and fourth. No, he's not accomplished, but he's proven he's capable. With a good staff, he could be a starter without a lot of development in the offseason. Personally, I'd rather not trade him at all, as I think we rebound next year with a high draft pick, softer schedule, AFCN with two teams in rebuild (or at least reload) mode. Having a good backup could be a difference maker, moreso than taking another cornerback we never see or a tackle we never want to see.

[Benton]

(01-03-2017, 02:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Because of history.

Teams never give up a first round pick for a back up QB.  McCarron looked good as a backup, but not better than any back up ever.

Wasn't Bledsoe traded to the Bills (in the Pats own division) for a 1st? And that guy from the Bills who got sacked all the time? Johnson?

[Au165]

(01-03-2017, 02:25 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I agree Fred. We're not getting a 1st Round pick for McCarron. Maybe if he had 2-3 years on his rookie deal...but no team will give up a 1st Round pick for a guy in the last year of his contract.

I think he goes to Houston. Osweiler has essentially 1 huge year on his contract. Bring McCarron in for 1 year to play on a rookie deal, then waive Osweiler and sign McCarron.

Some there like Tom Savage a lot, in fact rumor has it O'Brien never wanted Osweiller and wanted Savage to start the year after winning the job in his mind. This is why supposedly O'Brien and management have agreed to part ways after the Playoffs.

[TheWhoDeyKid]

If he is not traded he leaves next year and the team gets nothing except a comp pick. I would look to the Broncos (1st or 2nd round pick), Jets (2nd round pick), and even the 49ers (2nd round pick) especially if they hire Josh McDaniel's. The Browns would be last choice simply because they are within the division and I particularly do not want to face him twice a year.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-03-2017, 12:33 PM)Au165 Wrote: Your not getting a top 10 pick for AJ McCaron haha, come on now.

To those asking why wouldn't they want AJ over a rookie, the idea is based on potential and the unknown. You have seen AJ McCaron, so you know what he is. Will he be great? Short sample size says probably not, but can he be good? Sure. With a rookie get the exciting unknown that owners love and that is that they may be drafting the next hall of fame QB. The unknown strangely enough tends to be a highly valued commodity in the NFL. That is why you don't see a lot of trades for veterans, many prefer the exciting idea of what that 4th round pick may get them over the known production that vet may give them.

I don't think 4-5 games tells very much about a QB though. We've seen guys like Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Osweiler, Foles, Cassel, etc etc play well for a few games and flop elsewhere. To me it seems as risky as taking a college QB. Plus a rookie has 4+ years on a rookie deal whereas McC and Jimmy G have 1. 

(01-03-2017, 12:43 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Good point, this.  I have a feeling this sort of deal doesn't get done because Mike Brown, like a message board fan, won't give up McCarron for much less than the Raiders or Vikings did in very specific situations for starting QBs with long resumes.  We're being a bit unrealistic here.

Yeah just a tad unrealistic. Just a tad. I've seen people say Dalton wouldn't command a 1st in the past, yet here we are saying McCarron could get the 10th overall pick from the Browns?

[phil413]

(01-03-2017, 01:05 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Putting AJ McCarron on the trading block would be an incredibly stupid move on the Bengals' part.  Until the offensive line is fixed, Andy Dalton is just one cheap shot away from being laid out for an entire season.  I want AJ McCarron on the scene in case -- God forbid -- that would happen.

I disagree. They will lose him in a year for a 2018 comp pick (3rd at best), and that's only if they stay status quo without signing a needed outside FA next year.  You'd also be replacing him, so why not do it now rather than later? You'll get a better return and either have a young backup one year more seasoned or a vet with one more year in the system...like they had to go thru when landing AJ in the first place. Andy without question is the franchise QB, so get a big price to protect him instead of putting an inferior line out there in the first place.  

[Shake n Blake]

(01-03-2017, 03:08 PM)Benton Wrote: Wasn't Bledsoe traded to the Bills (in the Pats own division) for a 1st? And that guy from the Bills who got sacked all the time? Johnson?

Well I guess Bledsoe was "technically" a backup, but he was still regarded as one of the top starting QBs in football. You're right on Johnson, but add him to my list of guys who looked good for a few games and flopped elsewhere.

[Au165]

(01-03-2017, 03:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't think 4-5 games tells very much about a QB though. We've seen guys like Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Osweiler, Foles, Cassel, etc etc play well for a few games and flop elsewhere. To me it seems as risky as taking a college QB. Plus a rookie has 4+ years on a rookie deal whereas McC and Jimmy G have 1. 

I agree that's kind of what I am saying. Nothing he has shown early says great, but sure he could be good, or even bad. the Potential in an unknown trumps that of an older guy with limited information.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-03-2017, 03:24 PM)Au165 Wrote: I agree that's kind of what I am saying. Nothing he has shown early says great, but sure he could be good, or even bad. the Potential in an unknown trumps that of an older guy with limited information.

Right. I'm just saying that when you look at the past results of similar trades, it makes you wonder why it's still popular to trade for some other team's young QB. It seems even less successful than drafting your own. I guess the excitement you speak of plays into it, but it doesn't seem like a historically successful type of move.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-03-2017, 02:46 PM)Devils Advocate Wrote: I don't know how much his current contract will matter. Possession is nine tenths the law. Teams don't let a good QB even sniff the open market (if AJ turns out to be good, that is). So just having (a good QB) on your roster is 99% of the battle. Once he's there, he ain't leaving. That's the risk a needy team takes by hoping to sign him as a FA.

I don't know why some of you believe he's not worth a 1st. For a team in desperate need of stability there, he's worth every bit of a that. For team within the division, he's worth more.

That's assuming he comes in and lights things up. Chances are his performance won't be that great to where they give him a huge contract. He's going to be learning a new system and chances are on a team that doesn't have a great offense.

Plus, he doesn't have the strongest arm in the world. Generally teams draft guys in the 1st Round with big arms.

I think Houston is the ideal trading party.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-03-2017, 10:47 AM)Au165 Wrote: The reason you won't get what you want is teams over value draft picks. The contract is a detriment because if you trade him to a bad team he could flat out refuse to resign. They could franchise him, but are you going to pay him 20+ for the franchise or maybe you need it for someone else? Waiting for a compensatory pick is a losing strategy, we have "played for the comp pick" in the past and it hasn't worked well as of late. Maybe after the draft evaluation process the QB class sours and you can get a 2nd this year, but who knows sometimes guys emerge in that process i.e. become over hyped.

Waiting for a compensatory pick is not a losing strategy.  The Bengals have 11 draft picks in the upcoming draft.  You can bet that many of them won't make the team and wouldn't survive on the practice squad.

A compensatory pick in 2019 isn't the worst thing in the world if it ends up being a 3rd rounder.

As far as teams over valuing draft picks, I don't think there is ANY team that needs a QB that won't likely be using a first round pick on one of them.  If you could get a QB like AJM for a second round pick, where they don't get the 5th year at the cheap rookie contract like a first rounder I would think a lot of teams would be interested.  

If he refused to sign after the season, he would have to get a really good offer elsewhere which would, as a QB, almost certainly end up being a 3rd round pick (compensatory).  

So, say the Browns trade one of their 2nd rounders to the Bengals for AJM, and he wants to leave after one year, the Browns would likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick, which can now be traded, the following year.  

That is kind of "hedging your bet" if they don't work out.  

Again, I would not let him go for anything less than a second rounder.  

[*Nately120*]

(01-03-2017, 03:48 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I think Houston is the ideal trading party.

Houston already has a late-round guy in Tom Savage, who came in and performed rather admirably to keep their season alive on short notice.  The fact that he might not get to play in the playoff game could save his job, because the offense is going to stink out loud either way.  Brock could meltdown in the playoffs (though he's going against a 3rd string QB on the Raiders) and really be in the doghouse.

Anyways, I figure they'd roll with Savage or even Brock-o before they traded a pick for McCarron.

 

[Au165]

(01-03-2017, 04:41 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Waiting for a compensatory pick is not a losing strategy.  The Bengals have 11 draft picks in the upcoming draft.  You can bet that many of them won't make the team and wouldn't survive on the practice squad.

A compensatory pick in 2019 isn't the worst thing in the world if it ends up being a 3rd rounder.

As far as teams over valuing draft picks, I don't think there is ANY team that needs a QB that won't likely be using a first round pick on one of them.  If you could get a QB like AJM for a second round pick, where they don't get the 5th year at the cheap rookie contract like a first rounder I would think a lot of teams would be interested.  

If he refused to sign after the season, he would have to get a really good offer elsewhere which would, as a QB, almost certainly end up being a 3rd round pick (compensatory).  

So, say the Browns trade one of their 2nd rounders to the Bengals for AJM, and he wants to leave after one year, the Browns would likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick, which can now be traded, the following year.  


That is kind of "hedging your bet" if they don't work out.  

Again, I would not let him go for anything less than a second rounder.  

You can trade a high pick for AJM who is 27 and you have one year of control or you can give a veteran FA a 1 year deal to "show me". Mike Glennon is basically AJ McCarron (same age more starting experience) but is a FA and requires 0 draft picks. The reason you'd trade a 3rd for McCaron over Glennon is he will be cheaper and he can't say no to playing for you for a year.

Is there a project QB in the 2nd a team likes? Why not draft him and use a Ryan Fitzpatrick type for a year to bridge the gap? You probably don't plan to go to the Super Bowl year 1 with McCaron or someone else as there aren't any teams "1 guy away" looking at the field, so Fitzpatrick could buy you a year of sometimes good sometimes bad QB play.

My point is people over value the asset we have without looking at the full landscape. Fans tend to over value players, teams tend to over value draft picks. The reality is somewhere in between for both. We have no real leverage in trading McCaron, if we keep him we let him walk for a pick that doesn't help this team for two years, and by that time the window on this team may be long closed.

[BleedNOrange]

(01-03-2017, 11:23 AM)fredtoast Wrote: We are going to be contenders this year.

Haha, why was this the first thing I thought of when I read this???

[Jpoore]

(01-03-2017, 09:29 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: There is no way in hell I take less than a 2nd round pick THIS YEAR for him. He is more valuable as a back up and the price could go up during the season next year. If someone is thinking of him as a projected starter, he is worth at least a second rounder.

Haha I was think browns second first round pick and a 4th. Rumor has it it has been discussed

(01-03-2017, 10:31 AM)kevin Wrote: I think he signed a contract that includes one more season.  He is no Carson Palmer.  I think I make him honor that contract or he can just not get paid a year if he sits out.  We will not be getting first round draft picks for this guy.....I say keep him his last year and if he doesn't like it, tough.  He may be more of a Ryan Mallett back-up than a Tom Brady starter anyway.  Lets face it, given the chance last year when Dalton injured, he did not come in and play like this guy for Dallas when Romo injured. 

He was very appreciative in the article he was not saying trade me or else. He was saying I'm very appreciative of the organization and in my exit meeting I told the coaches I loved every single one of them for taking a chance on me when no one else would. He also said they all have a very special place in my heart. So sounds like he thinks he won't be back imo. But he said it would be fine if he is back.

(01-03-2017, 11:21 AM)McC Wrote: No way I'd trade him to Cleveland.  I'll be damned if I help them get better.

Even for a number 10 pick and a 4th?

[Rotobeast]

I'll give Cleveland AJM and a 4th (may consider 3rd, if they toss a 5th or 6th from their side) for Joe Thomas.

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