Top 100 of 2007

[Speedy Thomas]

Ran across this article following up on the top 100 high school players from ten years ago and I found it very interesting.  Triumph, tragedy, resilience, brokenness.  You will see some very familiar names, including one current Bengal who was very high on the list.

Every one of those kids expected to be a star in the NFL.  Some of them never even played a college game.

It was jarring to read about how many of those young men were seriously affected by football injuries that still plague them today.  I guess we all thought we were invincible at 18.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/sports/wp/2017/01/29/following-the-signs/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_top100-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

That's an interesting read. Good find.

[reuben.ahmed]

thx

[xxlt]

Does this say more about the inability of sports "experts" to rank talent or about the folly of playing football? Regarding the former, thirty two times fifty four equals one thousand seven hundred and twenty eight NFL roster spots. It seems if you are in the top 100 you should be a lock for one of the top 1,728 spots. Yet a quick glance suggests the majority of the top 100 never made it to the NFL, and some never even got as close as a tryout. Regarding the latter, they say playing the lottery is poor people paying "the stupid tax" because it is such a poor financial choice. It seems playing football is a similar tax but rather than paying it with money you can't afford to "invest" you pay it with your only brain or your knees, things it also seems one can't afford to relinquish.

I was amazed at how few of the guys in the article I had heard of, and how many I had heard of who had no NFL career or a very brief one. I wasn't surprised that it made me like football a little less as many items have had that effect on me over the last few years.

Thanks to the OP for posting the article.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 07:57 AM)xxlt Wrote: Does this say more about the inability of sports "experts" to rank talent or about the folly of playing football? Regarding the former, thirty two times fifty four equals one thousand seven hundred and twenty eight NFL roster spots. It seems if you are in the top 100 you should be a lock for one of the top 1,728 spots. Yet a quick glance suggests the majority of the top 100 never made it to the NFL, and some never even got as close as a tryout. Regarding the latter, they say playing the lottery is poor people paying "the stupid tax" because it is such a poor financial choice. It seems playing football is a similar tax but rather than paying it with money you can't afford to "invest" you pay it with your only brain or your knees, things it also seems one can't afford to relinquish.

I was amazed at how few of the guys in the article I had heard of, and how many I had heard of who had no NFL career or a very brief one. I wasn't surprised that it made me like football a little less as many items have had that effect on me over the last few years.

Thanks to the OP for posting the article.

It's a huge jump from high school to college. Then a bigger jump from college to NFL.

Plus, a lot of high school defenses these kids face have very little talent. A fast kid can just run outside and rack up yards. In college's obviously everyone has talent and speed or they wouldn't be there.

Look at the draft success rate in the NFL. The 1st Round of any particular draft might have 10 Pro Bowl players. Why not higher? Well...the jump from college to Pro is huge.

[CageTheBengal]

I can't help but shake my head when I read about the guy who has 6 knee surgeries and has no cartilage in his knees or the guy who was known to have an injury filled career and dies with 5 different kinds of pain killers in his system all before the NFL. These are really young people who I highly doubt can grasp the big picture of their health when they are being blinded by rankings and newspaper clippings projecting them to be the next big athlete.

Maybe there's something to be said about cutting back the physicality of the game while still in High School. Most of the names in the top 100 ended up being irrelevant and never did much anyways. Which makes me think you take a lot of damage in high school without gaining much from it. It sounds like a lot of people really develop and learn in college.

[Speedy Thomas]

(01-30-2017, 07:57 AM)xxlt Wrote: Does this say more about the inability of sports "experts" to rank talent or about the folly of playing football? Regarding the former, thirty two times fifty four equals one thousand seven hundred and twenty eight NFL roster spots. It seems if you are in the top 100 you should be a lock for one of the top 1,728 spots. Yet a quick glance suggests the majority of the top 100 never made it to the NFL, and some never even got as close as a tryout. Regarding the latter, they say playing the lottery is poor people paying "the stupid tax" because it is such a poor financial choice. It seems playing football is a similar tax but rather than paying it with money you can't afford to "invest" you pay it with your only brain or your knees, things it also seems one can't afford to relinquish.

I was amazed at how few of the guys in the article I had heard of, and how many I had heard of who had no NFL career or a very brief one. I wasn't surprised that it made me like football a little less as many items have had that effect on me over the last few years.

Thanks to the OP for posting the article.

Yes, I think it speaks to the difficulty of predicting success.  We are talking about 18 year old kids -- children, really.  Not only are college coaches trying to figure out how they will mature physically, but socially.  And let's don't forget that football is the ultimate team sport.  How are they going to fit within our system?  How are they going to mesh with my team?  How are they going to behave when they are away from home for the first time in their lives?  How are they going to choose responsible mentors and true friends, not people who just want to take advantage of their celebrity?

But I don't think the message of the article is the folly of playing football.  Some of the guys who didn't make the NFL used football to get an education and make something of themselves.  The folly is looking at high school and college football as a way to get to the NFL, rather than the means to get an education.  That's where mentoring -- be it from parents, coaches, or others -- can help these kids keep some perspective.

[Speedy Thomas]

(01-30-2017, 12:53 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: I can't help but shake my head when I read about the guy who has 6 knee surgeries and has no cartilage in his knees or the guy who was known to have an injury filled career and dies with 5 different kinds of pain killers in his system all before the NFL. These are really young people who I highly doubt can grasp the big picture of their health when they are being blinded by rankings and newspaper clippings projecting them to be the next big athlete.

Maybe there's something to be said about cutting back the physicality of the game while still in High School. Most of the names in the top 100 ended up being irrelevant and never did much anyways. Which makes me think you take a lot of damage in high school without gaining much from it. It sounds like a lot of people really develop and learn in college.

Agree that the game has to be made safer at all levels.  But I honestly don't know how you do that.  Ejection for all contact with the head?  That might help with concussions, but you've still got the knee injuries.

Sometimes when I go to games at PBS I look around and think that we're just like the Romans, watching gladiators kill themselves for our amusement.  I know, they are well compensated, and I know, it's their choice.  It just bothers me. But I still support it.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 12:53 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: I can't help but shake my head when I read about the guy who has 6 knee surgeries and has no cartilage in his knees or the guy who was known to have an injury filled career and dies with 5 different kinds of pain killers in his system all before the NFL. These are really young people who I highly doubt can grasp the big picture of their health when they are being blinded by rankings and newspaper clippings projecting them to be the next big athlete.

Maybe there's something to be said about cutting back the physicality of the game while still in High School. Most of the names in the top 100 ended up being irrelevant and never did much anyways. Which makes me think you take a lot of damage in high school without gaining much from it. It sounds like a lot of people really develop and learn in college.

Those are all guys who get college scholarships to play at big schools.

How about the other 99% of high school football kids who aren't good enough to play in college? They're out there getting injured and brain damage.

[xxlt]

(01-30-2017, 12:31 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: It's a huge jump from high school to college. Then a bigger jump from college to NFL.

Plus, a lot of high school defenses these kids face have very little talent. A fast kid can just run outside and rack up yards. In college's obviously everyone has talent and speed or they wouldn't be there.

Look at the draft success rate in the NFL. The 1st Round of any particular draft might have 10 Pro Bowl players. Why not higher? Well...the jump from college to Pro is huge.

I get all that, and if we were looking at the top 1,000 or 10,000 high school players I would not be even a little surprised a majority didn't make it to the NFL. But they were talking the top 100, out of the over one million kids who play HS football, so you would think if the talent evaluations meant anything then those kids should be virtual locks. And in fact, it seemed like most of them went to major college programs and could have and should have been able to "make the jump." But, some failed in college and then some after. Just seems to cast doubt on the rankings. The average fan on here posting mock drafts by the score could generate a top 100 list as accurate as that one, apparently.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 02:14 PM)xxlt Wrote: I get all that, and if we were looking at the top 1,000 or 10,000 high school players I would not be even a little surprised a majority didn't make it to the NFL. But they were talking the top 100, out of the over one million kids who play HS football, so you would think if the talent evaluations meant anything then those kids should be virtual  locks. And in fact, it seemed like most of them went to major college programs and could have and should have been able to "make the jump." But, some failed in college and then some after. Just seems to cast doubt on the rankings. The average fan on here posting mock drafts by the score could generate a top 100 list as accurate as that one, apparently.

How do you essentially rank the 2 best high school players in each state out of the thousands of high schools?

Who's to say that one players 1,500 receiving yards is better than anothers? It's all highly subjective too. This isn't Madden where you can see absolute ratings too.

Some kids peak in high school too and don't develop more physically later.

[xxlt]

(01-30-2017, 01:18 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Yes, I think it speaks to the difficulty of predicting success.  We are talking about 18 year old kids -- children, really.  Not only are college coaches trying to figure out how they will mature physically, but socially.  And let's don't forget that football is the ultimate team sport.  How are they going to fit within our system?  How are they going to mesh with my team?  How are they going to behave when they are away from home for the first time in their lives?  How are they going to choose responsible mentors and true friends, not people who just want to take advantage of their celebrity?

But I don't think the message of the article is the folly of playing football.  Some of the guys who didn't make the NFL used football to get an education and make something of themselves.  The folly is looking at high school and college football as a way to get to the NFL, rather than the means to get an education.  That's where mentoring -- be it from parents, coaches, or others -- can help these kids keep some perspective.

Good take, and your second paragraph raises the legitimate question should football ability (or any athletic ability) be a means to an education? Well, since the schools make billions of the child labor they exploit, arguably, but wouldn't it be more honest to pay them for their wealth generating labor? (I know, not in serf nation USA...) Then things like scholastic achievement could be means to a college education (and certainly many football players do make the grades to earn academic scholarships).

[xxlt]

(01-30-2017, 02:17 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: How do you essentially rank the 2 best high school players in each state out of the thousands of high schools?

Who's to say that one players 1,500 receiving yards is better than anothers? It's all highly subjective too. This isn't Madden where you can see absolute ratings too.

Some kids peak in high school too and don't develop more physically later.

Agreed, which makes the lists kind of pointless

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 02:18 PM)xxlt Wrote: Good take, and your second paragraph raises the legitimate question should football ability (or any athletic ability) be a means to an education? Well, since the schools make billions of the child labor they exploit, arguably, but wouldn't it be more honest to pay them for their wealth generating labor? (I know, not in serf nation USA...) Then things like scholastic achievement could be means to a college education (and certainly many football players do make the grades to earn academic scholarships).

D1 makes millions off of the athletes. D2 kids get scholarships and partial scholarships and most schools don't even break even.

[xxlt]

(01-30-2017, 02:24 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: D1 makes millions off of the athletes. D2 kids get scholarships and partial scholarships and most schools don't even break even.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances/revenue

The NCAA alone makes nearly a billion of them (as of 5 years ago). So, like I said, it is billions and not millions that are profiteered on the backs of 18-24 year olds.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 02:44 PM)xxlt Wrote: http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances/revenue

The NCAA alone makes nearly a billion of them (as of 5 years ago). So, like I said, it is billions and not millions that are profiteered on the backs of 18-24 year olds.

I'm speaking per program.

D1 is where the money is at...but D2 programs are lucky to break even. Most kids play football and get injured for no benefits at all.

Kids that go D1 are a very small subset of the overall kids that play.

[xxlt]

(01-30-2017, 02:48 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'm speaking per program.

D1 is where the money is at...but D2 programs are lucky to break even. Most kids play football and get injured for no benefits at all.

Kids that go D1 are a very small subset of the overall kids that play.

I was speaking collectively.

Good point though. From D2 perspective the cost benefit analysis doesn't look real good then, does it? And, from the whole set of players it doesn't look to good either, right?  A few multimillionaires, a few millionaires, and millions of kids with little but headaches and limps to show for their efforts.

[THE PISTONS]

(01-30-2017, 03:01 PM)xxlt Wrote: I was speaking collectively.

Good point though. From D2 perspective the cost benefit analysis doesn't look real good then, does it? And, from the whole set of players it doesn't look to good either, right?  A few multimillionaires, a few millionaires, and millions of kids with little but headaches and limps to show for their efforts.

Yep...somewhere there is a disconnect. On facebook...when I see a blatent helmet to helmet hit and a penalty gets called...I see fans complaining that the play was too quick and there was no way the LB could have moved and these guys just need to wear skirts.

On the converse, I see 10-11 year old kids getting concussions playing football now that schools started monitoring it. I even see kids playing basketball and other sports getting them.

Huge disconnect.