February post senior bowl mock

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-07-2017, 05:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Williams has proven he can get past the neck injury because it happened in early September 2015. He had an entire year to recover. Fournette's ankle problems were plaguing him in 2016 and he still continued to try and play. They may not be as "chronic" as some outlets have been speculating, and it could simply be he kept trying to play on tweaked ankles throughout the season when what he really needed was to give it at least a month or two to heal before trying to play again.

The fact a RB is being discussed at all in the top 10 means he is an elite talent at that position.
Nowadays, a WR being discussed for top 10 isn't nearly as rare as a potential RB in the top 10.
And when it comes to Williams, I think more like Laquon Treadwell or Keenan Allen. Williams has great size, but he's not extremely fast. He is expected to be in the low 4.5's, which is good for a WR his size, but only WRs like AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Sammy Watkins (athletic freaks) deserve to be considered elite talents. Heck, Odell Beckham was a better prospect than Williams is and he didn't get drafted until Pick 13.
Perhaps Williams has the ceiling of Dez Bryant. Bryant isn't the fastest WR (4.52 40), but he uses his size well and can high point the ball to make great catches. If a team considers Williams to become Dez Bryant, a pick in the top 10 of the draft is justified. If he's more like Treadwell or Keenan Allen, that's not worth a top 10 selection.

Bottom line is I think Fournette is a more elite talent than Williams.

When it comes to physicals, the Army has AR 40-501 which spells out what medical conditions are disqualifying. The NFL doesn't have any such standard. That's why Drew Bree's flunked his physical with the Miami Dolphins and passed his physical with the New Orleans Saints. (Hell, Saban would probably still be coaching in the NFL if Brees passed the Dolphin's physical.)

Different teams will assess injuries differently. Williams might pass some team physicals while he may flunk other team physicals. You can't say he has gotten passed it because he played this past year. 

Jarvis Jones transferred from USC to Georgia because he flunked USC's physical because of a neck injury. 

[*ochocincos*]

(02-07-2017, 06:03 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: When it comes to physicals, the Army has AR 40-501 which spells out what medical conditions are disqualifying. The NFL doesn't have any such standard. That's why Drew Bree's flunked his physical with the Miami Dolphins and passed his physical with the New Orleans Saints. (Hell, Saban would probably still be coaching in the NFL if Brees passed the Dolphin's physical.)

Different teams will assess injuries differently. Williams might pass some team physicals while he may flunk other team physicals. You can't say he has gotten passed it because he played this past year. 

Jarvis Jones transferred from USC to Georgia because he flunked USC's physical because of a neck injury. 

You're absolutely right that a team could assess Williams' neck injury differently. My comment was more to show a difference between the time frame of Williams' injury and Fournette's injury, as Jpoore stated that Williams has proven to fully recover whereas Fournette has not. The point I was trying to make was that Williams had practically a full year before playing in his first game since his injury whereas Fournette suffered the tweaked ankle in 2016 and still tried playing through it in 2016. Fournette did not have an offseason to allow the ankle to fully heal, so it's a bit unfair to say that Fournette can't recover from an ankle but say that Williams can recover from a neck.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-07-2017, 06:01 PM)Jpoore Wrote: I haven't seen low 4.5s.... I've seen 4.48 as the most stable number. Ur telling me u wouldnt take aj green and Keenan Allen on the same team?? He's not tread well I didn't think treadwell should have gone until late second.

I never said I wouldn't take AJ Green and Keenan Allen on the same time. What I'm saying is I wouldn't take a Keenan Allen at pick #9.
I've seen anywhere from 4.45 to 4.55. Given there are multiple reports that he doesn't have good top end speed, f he's toward the top half of that range (above 4.50), I don't consider him a top 10 talent. I do think he's faster than Treadwell, who ran a 4.62. As mentioned, I think Williams belongs in the teens. He should be a very good WR, but I don't think he's AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Sammy Watkins level.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-07-2017, 06:01 PM)Jpoore Wrote: I haven't seen low 4.5s.... I've seen 4.48 as the most stable number. Ur telling me u wouldnt take aj green and Keenan Allen on the same team?? He's not tread well I didn't think treadwell should have gone until late second.

The most stable number?  More like confirmational bias of other people's guesses. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-08-2017, 10:45 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You're absolutely right that a team could assess Williams' neck injury differently. My comment was more to show a difference between the time frame of Williams' injury and Fournette's injury, as Jpoore stated that Williams has proven to fully recover whereas Fournette has not. The point I was trying to make was that Williams had practically a full year before playing in his first game since his injury whereas Fournette suffered the tweaked ankle in 2016 and still tried playing through it in 2016. Fournette did not have an offseason to allow the ankle to fully heal, so it's a bit unfair to say that Fournette can't recover from an ankle but say that Williams can recover from a neck.

I understand now and agree. 

[Jpoore]

(02-07-2017, 05:23 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Coming out of college, Chris Perry didn't have an injury issue and Adrian Peterson did (specifically a shoulder issue) and look how that turned out. 

Yeah there also a lot more players with injury that turned out bad all I'm saying is the amount and the same shoulder is what bothers me. 2 surgeries 3 injuries all to the same shoulder. It should be talked about more.

(02-08-2017, 11:02 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I never said I wouldn't take AJ Green and Keenan Allen on the same time. What I'm saying is I wouldn't take a Keenan Allen at pick #9.
I've seen anywhere from 4.45 to 4.55. Given there are multiple reports that he doesn't have good top end speed, f he's toward the top half of that range (above 4.50), I don't consider him a top 10 talent. I do think he's faster than Treadwell, who ran a 4.62. As mentioned, I think Williams belongs in the teens. He should be a very good WR, but I don't think he's AJ Green, Julio Jones, or Sammy Watkins level.

Well take this for what it is but Dabo said he's better than Bryant, Watkins, and Hopkins. We will just agree to disagree but I think he's a top 5 talent. I think he runs 4.48-4.50 which is what aj ran.

(02-08-2017, 11:25 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: The most stable number?  More like confirmational bias of other people's guesses. 

What is anything at this point in the process? But when most sites have a certain number u tend to believe them.

[leonardfan40]

(02-08-2017, 04:17 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Yeah there also a lot more players with injury that turned out bad all I'm saying is  the amount and the same shoulder is what bothers me. 2 surgeries 3 injuries all to the same shoulder. It should be talked about more.
Well take this for what it is but Dabo said he's better than Bryant, Watkins, and Hopkins. We will just agree to  disagree but I think he's a top 5 talent. I think he runs 4.48-4.50 which is what aj ran.
What is anything at this point in the process? But when most sites have a certain number u tend to believe them.

I'm with you on Williams, I think he's gonna be a stud and would be well worth the 9th pick. I think he runs a 4.5 forty and that is plenty fast enough for AJ so it wouldn't worry me at all

[pulses]

(02-08-2017, 05:03 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I'm with you on Williams, I think he's gonna be a stud and would be well worth the 9th pick. I think he runs a 4.5 forty and that is plenty fast enough for AJ so it wouldn't worry me at all

Corey Davis will be the better WR of the two.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-08-2017, 04:17 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Yeah there also a lot more players with injury that turned out bad all I'm saying is  the amount and the same shoulder is what bothers me. 2 surgeries 3 injuries all to the same shoulder. It should be talked about more.
Well take this for what it is but Dabo said he's better than Bryant, Watkins, and Hopkins. We will just agree to  disagree but I think he's a top 5 talent. I think he runs 4.48-4.50 which is what aj ran.
What is anything at this point in the process? But when most sites have a certain number u tend to believe them.

1 If you want to talk about the injuries start with telling me what the injuries are and their prognosis. 

2 What makes one guess more "stable" than another guess?

[*ochocincos*]

(02-08-2017, 04:17 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Yeah there also a lot more players with injury that turned out bad all I'm saying is  the amount and the same shoulder is what bothers me. 2 surgeries 3 injuries all to the same shoulder. It should be talked about more.
Well take this for what it is but Dabo said he's better than Bryant, Watkins, and Hopkins. We will just agree to  disagree but I think he's a top 5 talent. I think he runs 4.48-4.50 which is what aj ran.
What is anything at this point in the process? But when most sites have a certain number u tend to believe them.

Obviously if Williams is in discussion as the top WR and early first round pick, he should be better than Martavis Bryant. Bryant is a good WR2/3, but he's not a WR1. Really, in my mind, Williams falls between Hopkins and Watkins. Both had better final seasons at Clemson than Williams did. it wasn't by much, but it was still better.
Hopkins had 1405 rec yards and 18 TDs in 2012.
Watkins had 1464 rec yards and 12 TDs in 2013.
Williams had 1361 rec yards and 11 TDs in 2016.

Hopkins ran a 4.57 at the combine, which is considered too slow to be considered as a top 10 WR. He was unofficially clocked at 4.50 and 4.41 in his Clemson pro day, so that helped him. But he went 27th overall to Houston.
Watkins ran a 4.43 at the combine. Watkins went 4th overall to Buffalo, who traded up to get him. Watkins was widely considered a Top 10 talent in the 2014 draft.

Perhaps I've been unfair to Williams, as Watkins was expected to be the best WR to come out of college since Green and Jones. A top 5 talent. Maybe I shouldn't be comparing a Top 5 guy to a Top 10 guy. I could be lumping them in together when there really should be a difference in expectation between picks 1-6 and 7-10.

If Williams runs what you think he will run, the argument can definitely be made for that 8-10 range. But if he doesn't, there will be doubts about his speed and it could cause him to be instead evaluated as a prospect more suited for the teens. If that's the case, you really have a debate over whether Corey Davis or Mike Williams will be the better receiver.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-08-2017, 04:17 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Yeah there also a lot more players with injury that turned out bad all I'm saying is the amount and the same shoulder is what bothers me. 2 surgeries 3 injuries all to the same shoulder. It should be talked about more.
Well take this for what it is but Dabo said he's better than Bryant, Watkins, and Hopkins. We will just agree to disagree but I think he's a top 5 talent. I think he runs 4.48-4.50 which is what aj ran.
What is anything at this point in the process? But when most sites have a certain number u tend to believe them.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000813464/article/mike-williams-to-miss-rest-of-offseason-workouts

And Williams is out with a reported herniated disc in his lower back.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

Mike Williams placed on PUP and is expected to miss training camp.

[BenZoo2]

(07-31-2017, 10:30 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Mike Williams placed on PUP and is expected to miss training camp.

Glad he went before we picked. I would have taken Howard, reddick or Allen over Williams


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