Clear Politics Updates General election and States

[Luvnit2]

Long way to go, but a couple of telling polls. Keep in mind the Trump/Biden polls are National. Biden needs to be up 3 to 4 points in a national poll to win according to poll experts. The Wall Street journal poll has then tied without West in mix and Trump up 1 with West. An interesting thing to keep in mind is the no labels party. There is a chance Manchin will not have a shot to win back his senate seat, down 13 now to a Republican candidate. Will he not run in WV and instead run as the no labels party representative?

All of this for President polling after Trump has been indicted 4 times?? It is crazy how Trump adds support with each indictment.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Saturday, September 2
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Wall Street Journal Trump 59, DeSantis 13, Ramaswamy 5, Haley 8, Pence 2, Christie 3, Scott 2, Hutchinson 1, Burgum 1, Hurd 0 Trump +46
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Wall Street Journal Biden 46, Trump 46 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. West Wall Street Journal* Trump 40, Biden 39, West 2 Trump +1
Friday, September 1
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
West Virginia Senate - Manchin vs. Justice MetroNews Justice 51, Manchin 38 Justice +13
West Virginia Senate - Manchin vs. Mooney MetroNews Mooney 41, Manchin 45 Manchin +4
West Virginia Senate - Republican Primary MetroNews Justice 58, Mooney 26 Justice +32
West Virginia Governor - Republican Primary MetroNews Capito 32, Morrisey 23, Miller 9, Warner 7 Capito +9
2024 Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary Siena Trump 61, DeSantis 22, Christie 6, Haley 3, Ramaswamy 2, Pence 2, Scott 2, Hutchinson 2 Trump +39
Mississippi Governor - Reeves vs. Presley Siena Reeves 52, Presley 41 Reeves +11
President Biden Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 40, Disapprove 58 Disapprove +18

[*pally*]

It is easy to say that you will support Trump 15 months before the election. Besides, plenty of politicians who won the polls this far out have crashed and burned at the ballot box. Might not be so easy to support Trump when you actually have to vote for him especially if he has been convicted of his alleged crimes. There is no surprise in WV or MS polls

Trump's biggest challenge is that he still is not picking up voters from the group who didn't vote for him in 2016 and 2020. In neither 2016 nor 2020 was he able to exceed 47% of the vote, there is zero evidence that he can do so again in 2024. Those voters already rejected his so-called leadership and nothing he is doing is changing those minds. And the further problem he has is that the states where he desperately needs to pick up votes are the places he and Republicans are losing support...Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin.

Newly eligible voters are overwhelmingly Democratic and older voters who tend towards Republicans are dying off. So what's the plan to get him elected in 2024? The 2022 midterms indicated a rejection of the Republican message and platform. And I guarantee you, that ANY government shutdown will be blamed on the Republicans this time. The current House controlled by the right-wing extremist Freedom Caucus is dysfunctional and is too busy playing politics to move forward with anything positive for the American people.

What is the message he is campaigning on that is going to convince people who rejected him in 2020 to suddenly vote for him in 2024?

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-04-2023, 01:43 PM)pally Wrote: It is easy to say that you will support Trump 15 months before the election. Besides, plenty of politicians who won the polls this far out have crashed and burned at the ballot box.  Might not be so easy to support Trump when you actually have to vote for him especially if he has been convicted of his alleged crimes.  There is no surprise in WV or MS polls

Trump's biggest challenge is that he still is not picking up voters from the group who didn't vote for him in 2016 and 2020.  In neither 2016 nor 2020 was he able to exceed 47% of the vote, there is zero evidence that he can do so again in 2024. Those voters already rejected his so-called leadership and nothing he is doing is changing those minds.  And the further problem he has is that the states where he desperately needs to pick up votes are the places he and Republicans are losing support...Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin.

Newly eligible voters are overwhelmingly Democratic and older voters who tend towards Republicans are dying off.  So what's the plan to get him elected in 2024?  The 2022 midterms indicated a rejection of the Republican message and platform.  And I guarantee you, that ANY government shutdown will be blamed on the Republicans this time.  The current House controlled by the right-wing extremist Freedom Caucus is dysfunctional and is too busy playing politics to move forward with anything positive for the American people.

What is the message he is campaigning on that is going to convince people who rejected him in 2020 to suddenly vote for him in 2024?

Why haven't you learned by now that Trump supporters will always be Trump supporters? Even if he kills and shoots someone on the street they will still support him (at least that's what you guys keep telling me). *shesh

He might lose a few but we have to wait and see how all these charges turn out. The opposite might even happen we have no idea. 

And Biden sure isn't helping himself right now.

[SunsetBengal]

Everyone knows that The 538 is the only place to go for polling data. As individual polling services may possibly be skewed or flawed, the 538 computes an average of all polling services to produce a most likely value. (Credit to Belsnickle for sharing that with the board community)

[basballguy]

(09-04-2023, 02:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Everyone knows that The 538 is the only place to go for polling data.  As individual polling services may possibly be skewed or flawed, the 538 computes an average of all polling services to produce a most likely value.  (Credit to Belsnickle for sharing that with the board community)

Except in 2016 when Nate Silver missed by a mile lol....granted, everyone did...

[*pally*]

(09-04-2023, 02:46 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Why haven't you learned by now that Trump supporters will always be Trump supporters? Even if he kills and shoots someone on the street they will still support him (at least that's what you guys keep telling me). *shesh

He might lose a few but we have to wait and see how all these charges turn out. The opposite might even happen we have no idea. 

And Biden sure isn't helping himself right now.

And in 2020 Trump showed he can't win via Trump supporters alone which means he has to expand his pool of voters.  So the question remains, what is he doing to bring in voters who did not vote for him in 2016 and/or 2020?

[SunsetBengal]

(09-04-2023, 03:01 PM)pally Wrote: And in 2020 Trump showed he can't win via Trump supporters alone which means he has to expand his pool of voters.  So the question remains, what is he doing to bring in voters who did not vote for him in 2016 and/or 2020?

He needs to do nothing, actually.  In my lifetime the vast majority of my "swing voter" friends all say that they vote with their wallets.  So, while the Democrat party is focused on pushing social and climate issues, they are forgetting that the voting base in general is getting poorer and poorer.  Big regulation = Big Government, with which Big Government = Big Taxes for most.  Not a hard choice when Trump starts spewing about how deregulation his agenda is.  If you haven't noticed anything over the years, a lot of voters will go for the short term win that equals more money in their pockets over holding out for the long term good for most 9/10.  

Some like to claim that the Democrat way is the way for general citizen prosperity, but just look at the long terms effects of the NAFTA program that Bill Clinton championed.  All it did was to put more money in the pockets of the corporations, and put pressure on American workers to compete for jobs versus people in countries paying much less, like Mexico for example.  How are all of those non-union workers doing now?  Democrats also want to raise the minimum wage, which is due at this point in time, but that still isn't going to force greedy corporations from paying more than they have to, i.e. a living wage to their lowest earners.  

Raising taxes on the working class earners will never be the answer, but at some point Corporate entities must be forced to pay the difference from the huge amount that they prosper compared to what they pay to the workers that enable them to gain that profit. 

[Luvnit2]

(09-04-2023, 03:01 PM)pally Wrote: And in 2020 Trump showed he can't win via Trump supporters alone which means he has to expand his pool of voters.  So the question remains, what is he doing to bring in voters who did not vote for him in 2016 and/or 2020?

He only got 8% of the black vote in 2020. He is polling 20% now with black voters. Why? The Biden economy is crushing low income and the middle class. Black, Hispanic, Latino and yes women did well under the Trump economy.

Also, it appears Biden has a good shot of being impeached. His policies have hurt the middle and lower classes a lot and no way that improves by 2024 election.

But as you said in an earlier post and I said as well, long way to go. You did not mention what you feel happens if Manchin joins the race as the "no labels" candidate. Would he take votes from Trump or Biden in the purple states?

[Luvnit2]

(09-04-2023, 03:52 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He needs to do nothing, actually.  In my lifetime the vast majority of my "swing voter" friends all say that they vote with their wallets.  So, while the Democrat party is focused on pushing social and climate issues, they are forgetting that the voting base in general is getting poorer and poorer.  Big regulation = Big Government, with which Big Government = Big Taxes for most.  Not a hard choice when Trump starts spewing about how deregulation his agenda is.  If you haven't noticed anything over the years, a lot of voters will go for the short term win that equals more money in their pockets over holding out for the long term good for most 9/10.  

Some like to claim that the Democrat way is the way for general citizen prosperity, but just look at the long terms effects of the NAFTA program that Bill Clinton championed.  All it did was to put more money in the pockets of the corporations, and put pressure on American workers to compete for jobs versus people in countries paying much less, like Mexico for example.  How are all of those non-union workers doing now?  Democrats also want to raise the minimum wage, which is due at this point in time, but that still isn't going to force greedy corporations from paying more than they have to, i.e. a living wage to their lowest earners.  

Raising taxes on the working class earners will never be the answer, but at some point Corporate entities must be forced to pay the difference from the huge amount that they prosper compared to what they pay to the workers that enable them to gain that profit. 

Spot on!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree with the swing (independent voters) voters have seen enough of Je Biden and God forbid Kamala Harris if Joe can't fulfill another 4 years.

Joe has had 3 years to win votes, it is said Trump has only a certain threshold of voters. Raise your hand if you feel Biden can keep all those who voted for him in 2024. As for the young voters, Biden promised he would eliminate student loan debt. College students will not fall for that lie a second time. Add in the country now knows the HB laptop is real, they know the Biden family made almost (minimum) 1 million dollars from China.
I see a POTUS with no energy who damaged our economy with bad policy decisions.

[SunsetBengal]

(09-04-2023, 05:25 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Spot on!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree with the swing (independent voters) voters have seen enough of Je Biden and God forbid Kamala Harris if Joe can't fulfill another 4 years.

Joe has had 3 years to win votes, it is said Trump has only a certain threshold of voters. Raise your hand if you feel Biden can keep all those who voted for him in 2024. As for the young voters, Biden promised he would eliminate student loan debt. College students will not fall for that lie a second time. Add in the country now knows the HB laptop is real, they know the Biden family made almost (minimum) 1 million dollars from China.
I see a POTUS with no energy who damaged our economy with bad policy decisions.

It seems that a Ross Perot might just have another chance of influencing an election.

[*Nately120*]

(09-04-2023, 03:52 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Raising taxes on the working class earners will never be the answer, but at some point Corporate entities must be forced to pay the difference from the huge amount that they prosper compared to what they pay to the workers that enable them to gain that profit. 

I simply don't see a situation where the government directly intervenes and forces corporations to pay what is deemed to be a fair share to the workers that enable them to gain that profit, particularly while we are entertaining the idea of putting Trump back in office.

I'll admit I haven't kept up on his policies for 2024 outside of the DOJ stuff, but I can't see him running on a platform of forcing corporations to start socializing the wealth they bring in.  This is some Bernie Sanders style stuff, as far as I can tell.

[*pally*]

(09-04-2023, 03:52 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He needs to do nothing, actually.  In my lifetime the vast majority of my "swing voter" friends all say that they vote with their wallets.  So, while the Democrat party is focused on pushing social and climate issues, they are forgetting that the voting base in general is getting poorer and poorer.  Big regulation = Big Government, with which Big Government = Big Taxes for most.  Not a hard choice when Trump starts spewing about how deregulation his agenda is.  If you haven't noticed anything over the years, a lot of voters will go for the short term win that equals more money in their pockets over holding out for the long term good for most 9/10.  

Some like to claim that the Democrat way is the way for general citizen prosperity, but just look at the long terms effects of the NAFTA program that Bill Clinton championed.  All it did was to put more money in the pockets of the corporations, and put pressure on American workers to compete for jobs versus people in countries paying much less, like Mexico for example.  How are all of those non-union workers doing now?  Democrats also want to raise the minimum wage, which is due at this point in time, but that still isn't going to force greedy corporations from paying more than they have to, i.e. a living wage to their lowest earners.  

Raising taxes on the working class earners will never be the answer, but at some point Corporate entities must be forced to pay the difference from the huge amount that they prosper compared to what they pay to the workers that enable them to gain that profit. 

Joe is the ONLY candidate talking about corporations paying their fair share.  Don't forget the Republicans LOWERED corporate taxes and taxes on the 1%

Trump is only talking about 2020.  DeSantis is banking on "anti-woke",  Vivek is counting on being a younger Trump.  There is no Republican actually talking about plans to improve the economy.   The do talk about how "awful" things are with lots of fearmongering to gin things up.

 The ONLY candidate who talks about jobs and the economy, and what still needs to happen is Biden  

And if polls more than a year in advance were accurate...then we would have several different presidents, including President Hillary Clinton who beat Jeb Bush in the 2016 election.

Biden vs Trump will NOT come down to most people voting with their pocketbooks.  It will come down to whether want chaos and revenge  of Trump vs normality with challenges of Biden

[SunsetBengal]

(09-04-2023, 06:13 PM)pally Wrote: Joe is the ONLY candidate talking about corporations paying their fair share.  Don't forget the Republicans LOWERED corporate taxes and taxes on the 1%

Trump is only talking about 2020.  DeSantis is banking on "anti-woke",  Vivek is counting on being a younger Trump.  There is no Republican actually talking about plans to improve the economy.   The do talk about how "awful" things are with lots of fearmongering to gin things up.

 The ONLY candidate who talks about jobs and the economy, and what still needs to happen is Biden  

And if polls more than a year in advance were accurate...then we would have several different presidents, including President Hillary Clinton who beat Jeb Bush in the 2016 election.

Biden vs Trump will NOT come down to most people voting with their pocketbooks.  It will come down to whether want chaos and revenge  of Trump vs normality with challenges of Biden

Really?  Biden gets tangled on the text from his teleprompter, not sure that "he's" saying much of anything at this point. 

I see you chose to totally dodge the NAFTA part of my post.  Why would the so-called party of the working class propose and support a measure to remove good paying jobs from Americans, and move them out of the country?  

[*pally*]

(09-04-2023, 06:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Really?  Biden gets tangled on the text from his teleprompter, not sure that "he's" saying much of anything at this point. 

I see you chose to totally dodge the NAFTA part of my post.  Why would the so-called party of the working class propose and support a measure to remove good paying jobs from Americans, and move them out of the country?  

NAFTA was signed 30 years ago.  It was not signed with the idea that jobs would move to Mexico and Canada.  I'm sure when he first proposed it Ronald Readen didn't think so.  I'm equally sure that George H. W. Bush when he started the negotiations in 1991,  didn't think job loss would be the consequence either.

I'm not downplaying the results of NAFTA and other decisions from the long-ago past that have an impact on today's voters.  But, the people who have let NAFTA be a guiding force in their votes are already in Tump's camp so am not really sure what impact that would have on 2024.  

You ignore the younger voters who care about things that are being ignored or poo-pooed by the Republicans.  Voters from ages 18-35 frankly don't give a damn about NAFTA.  

And mangled or not, at least Biden is talking about jobs which is more than anyone can say about the Republicans.

[Goalpost]

(09-04-2023, 07:04 PM)pally Wrote: NAFTA was signed 30 years ago.  It was not signed with the idea that jobs would move to Mexico and Canada.  I'm sure when he first proposed it Ronald Readen didn't think so.  I'm equally sure that George H. W. Bush when he started the negotiations in 1991,  didn't think job loss would be the consequence either.

I'm not downplaying the results of NAFTA and other decisions from the long-ago past that have an impact on today's voters.  But, the people who have let NAFTA be a guiding force in their votes are already in Tump's camp so am not really sure what impact that would have on 2024.  

You ignore the younger voters who care about things that are being ignored or poo-pooed by the Republicans.  Voters from ages 18-35 frankly don't give a damn about NAFTA.  

And mangled or not, at least Biden is talking about jobs which is more than anyone can say about the Republicans.

Jobs are kind of counter productive at this point.  The more jobs that are created the greater likelihood rates remain high.  That's why everyone is trying to create this soft landing.  Weaken the economy where rates can then be lowered to stimulate things.  Go ahead and watch it right now.  A strong jobs report creates a negative effect on the stock market because the Fed will keep the rates high from this.    

[Belsnickel]

(09-04-2023, 02:54 PM)basballguy Wrote: Except in 2016 when Nate Silver missed by a mile lol....granted, everyone did...

He actually didn't. The results were within the margins Nate Silver had calculated. The polls weren't as far off as most people tend to say; it's the way people were interpreting them that was problematic.

[basballguy]

(09-04-2023, 08:36 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: He actually didn't. The results were within the margins Nate Silver had calculated. The polls weren't as far off as most people tend to say; it's the way people were interpreting them that was problematic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Not sure how you interpret that as anything other than a miss

[KillerGoose]

(09-04-2023, 10:15 PM)basballguy Wrote: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Not sure how you interpret that as anything other than a miss

This doesn't refute what Bels said. The margin of error for the aggregate is typically 4-5 points, which was what Hillary's lead was. It's all statistics. The fact that Hillary was given a 71% chance of victory is a testament to that - she was absolutely not guaranteed to win, and she didn't. 

[basballguy]

(09-04-2023, 10:20 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: This doesn't refute what Bels said. The margin of error for the aggregate is typically 4-5 points, which was what Hillary's lead was. It's all statistics. The fact that Hillary was given a 71% chance of victory is a testament to that - she was absolutely not guaranteed to win, and she didn't. 

Thanks for the education on how statistics work.  I had no idea.... :)

Silver was closer than others....but it's still a miss...i'm not sure why this is worth arguing...he's still top notch at what he does.  

[KillerGoose]

(09-04-2023, 10:25 PM)basballguy Wrote: Thanks for the education on how statistics work.  I had no idea.... :)

Well, you seem to struggle understanding them so I had to lay out the basics.  

Quote:Silver was closer than others....but it's still a miss...i'm not sure why this is worth arguing...he's still top notch at what he does.  

I don't really agree. I tend to side with Bels that is all based on how people are interpreting them. Silver's model was just saying "Hillary is the favorite" but wasn't guaranteeing her the victory. In my opinion, if Trump had won in 2020, that would have been a miss. Silver's model was essentially guaranteeing a Biden victory. Biden was given a 90+% chance of victory up until the day of where he dropped to 89% IIRC. It's all about likelihood. It wasn't that unlikely for Trump to win in 2016, but it was quite unlikely for him to win in 2020. 

One thing about Trump is he has forced that margin of error in both elections so far.