Clear Politics Updates General election and States

[Rotobeast]

(11-13-2023, 10:03 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Many think I am 100% Trump. The truth is I am for anyone other than a liberal like Biden who has failed the country the past almost 3 years.

I would be on board with a Haley/Scott ticket for example, but only if they can beat Biden easily.

If it is Trump, I hope he chooses Scott or Haley as his running mate. I think based on both the front runners age, the VP choice will carry a lot more weight knowing at a moment's notice the VP could be the POTUS.

I always say long way to go, I could be wrong but not sure Bidenomics will show great improvement in 2024. We also have learned the number of new hire results are skewed due to number of people forced to work 2nd and 3rd jobs.

I think Trump would choose Vivek Ramaswamy and weaponize him.

Biden is not good. I half expect the Dems to pull the "Joe's not in very good health" and trot Michelle Obama out against Trump. I'd wager DJT would refuse to debate her, and he'd have a tough road in defeating her.

Too bad Romney didn't jump into the GOP primary. That would have been some interesting tv...lol

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[*Nately120*]

(11-13-2023, 09:40 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: We still have a long way to go before election season, but I think there is enough here to start worrying if you are a Democrat (or Trump opponent). Biden has been polling behind Trump fairly consistently for a few weeks now, including trailing in all but one battleground state. Nate Silver talks about it a little more on his blog, which I enjoy. He is floating the idea of replacing Biden late in the cycle, which is a risk, but also points out how risky it is to nominate him in the first place.

One year ago, I would have said "If the election was today, Trump loses." Today, I am not saying that anymore. We'll have to see how this starts shaping as we get into Q1 & Q2 of 2024.

It's possible a late swap benefits democrats since people really seem to sour on folks the more they know them.  People knew and didn't like Hillary so they gave Trump a shot and then went crawling back to the Obama admin via Biden and then once Biden was president his approval sank like a stone and now people are thinking of crawling back to Trump.

I can see democrats just tossing Gavin Newsom out there and being like "Hey, he's tall and 23 years younger than Biden and 20 years younger than Trump and did we mention he isn't Trump or Biden?" and then hoping that's enough to win in 2024.  

And again, this isn't me saying Newsom should be president or would be a good one, but I can just see the DNC letting conservatives and liberals alike complain about old ass politicians and then being like "Ok well here is a guy who isn't old so vote for him before you change your mind on all that age stuff."  

[Luvnit2]

(11-13-2023, 11:11 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I think Trump would choose Vivek Ramaswamy and weaponize him.

Biden is not good. I half expect the Dems to pull the "Joe's not in very good health" and trot Michelle Obama out against Trump. I'd wager DJT would refuse to debate her, and he'd have a tough road in defeating her.

Too bad Romney didn't jump into the GOP primary. That would have been some interesting tv...lol

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I don't see ay way Trump would add Vivek, what alone weaponize him. I do see one of these three as they would have a path to 2028 if their ticket wins in 2024 with Trump as he would be a 1 term President.

1. Scott
2. Haley
3. Noem (governor) who is squeaky clean and a great female governor

The next few months will be interesting with both big parties having their winner picked by end of May at the latest.

[*Nately120*]

(11-13-2023, 11:11 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I think Trump would choose Vivek Ramaswamy and weaponize him.

Biden is not good. I half expect the Dems to pull the "Joe's not in very good health" and trot Michelle Obama out against Trump. I'd wager DJT would refuse to debate her, and he'd have a tough road in defeating her.

I can see Trump giving Vivek a spot in his cabinet or something, but Trump is going to put Tudor Dixon or Kristi Noem on as VP, I'd wager.  I can't see Vivek getting elected to a major position, because he's got that wild card crazy "what the hell is he going to do" energy that Trump has, but he's not an old white guy so he's going to have a hard time getting that "He's crazy and might do bad stuff, but he's on our side" kind of trust from rural folks.  Plus evangelicals might get cold feet putting a proud Hindu one step from the presidency behind a 78-82 year old Trump.

I don't get the whole Michelle Obama for president thing, so I may be missing something here.  And Trump would refuse to debate her, but he's 100% going to refuse to debate anyone isn't he?

(11-13-2023, 11:22 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I don't see ay way Trump would add Vivek, what alone weaponize him. I do see one of these three as they would have a path to 2028 if their ticket wins in 2024 with Trump as he would be a 1 term President.

If Trump wins in 2024 I doubt the GOP can move on from the Trump family if Trump and Don Jr. are going to tempt them with a succession and endorsement plan. As long as Trump is alive, whomever wins the GOP primary is going to need to get his direct endorsement.

[GMDino]

(11-13-2023, 11:22 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I don't see ay way Trump would add Vivek, what alone weaponize him. I do see one of these three as they would have a path to 2028 if their ticket wins in 2024 with Trump as he would be a 1 term President.

1. Scott
2. Haley
3. Noem (governor) who is squeaky clean and a great female governor

The next few months will be interesting with both big parties having their winner picked by end of May at the latest.

Noem isn't squeaky clean.

https://www.siouxfallslive.com/news/south-dakota/stories-of-gov-kristi-noems-personal-life-distracting-from-real-challenges-insiders-say

Although having an affair might make her more likely to be P01135809's pick this round.

[Luvnit2]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-approval-rating-sinks-israel-hamas-war-support-trump-2024-rises-poll

Trump has not lead since Feb.in the Quinnipiac University Poll. Keep in mind, a National lead in polls translates to major trouble for Biden.

Biden's approval rating sinks over Israel-Hamas war; support for Trump in 2024 rises: poll
Just 37% of American voters approve of Biden's job performance

A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed President Biden's approval rating sinking and support for former President Donald Trump rising as the 2024 election looms.

According to the poll, American voters' worsening views of Biden were driven by his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, which has also given Trump his first lead in the poll since February.

Just 37% of voters said they approved of Biden's job performance, with 59% disapproving. The same number (37%) also said they viewed Biden favorably versus unfavorably (59%).

Concerning the war, just 37% said they approved of Biden's response while 54% said they disapproved. Those numbers have gotten dramatically worse for the president over the past two weeks, down from the 42% who said they approved and 46% who disapproved at the beginning of the month.

Trump fared better than Biden in terms of favorability, with 42% holding a favorable view of the former president and 55% an unfavorable one.

In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Trump led Biden 48% to 46% – his first lead in Quinnipiac's poll since February – although recent polls have still shown him within the margin of error behind Biden.

[Luvnit2]

(11-14-2023, 09:51 AM)GMDino Wrote: Noem isn't squeaky clean.

https://www.siouxfallslive.com/news/south-dakota/stories-of-gov-kristi-noems-personal-life-distracting-from-real-challenges-insiders-say

Although having an affair might make her more likely to be P01135809's pick this round.

In today's world having an affair is more likely than not. But, she is not my first choice, my first choice is Haley.

[GMDino]

(11-15-2023, 07:03 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: In today's world having an affair is more likely than not. But, she is not my first choice, my first choice is Haley.

Haley wants to go after social security AND make everyone on line use their real names.

Which of those do you support?

[Luvnit2]

Lots of interesting poll results. The biggest shocker is Haley 52% and Biden 41% in the Fox poll and in the Marquette Poll Haley up 10% on Biden Also, the polls had no head to head matchups Trump/Newsome and Trump/Whittmer and Trump /Manchin. It was weird them having a matchup of just Manchin and Trump and no Biden.

If you click on the link, you can also see how Trump/Biden fare with individual groups Independents/Black/Hispanic/Suburban/College Educated/Men.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Thursday, November 16
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Trump 50, Biden 46 Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein FOX News Trump 41, Biden 35, Kennedy 15, West 3, Stein 3 Trump +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. Manchin vs. Stein FOX News Trump 40, Biden 35, Kennedy 13, Manchin 5, Stein 4 Trump +5
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden FOX News DeSantis 50, Biden 45 DeSantis +5
General Election: Haley vs. Biden FOX News Haley 52, Biden 41 Haley +11
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination FOX News Trump 62, DeSantis 14, Haley 11, Ramaswamy 7, Scott, Christie 3, Burgum 0, Hutchinson 1 Trump +48
2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination FOX News Biden 72, Williamson 13, Phillips 3 Biden +59
General Election: Trump vs. Harris FOX News Trump 50, Harris 45 Trump +5
General Election: Trump vs. Newsom FOX News Trump 49, Newsom 45 Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Whitmer FOX News Trump 48, Whitmer 46 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Manchin FOX News Trump 47, Manchin 46 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Trump 52, Biden 48 Trump +4
General Election: DeSantis vs. Biden Marquette DeSantis 51, Biden 49 DeSantis +2
General Election: Haley vs. Biden Marquette Haley 55, Biden 45 Haley +10
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Marquette Trump 54, DeSantis 12, Haley 12, Ramaswamy 4, Scott 2, Christie 1, Burgum 0, Hutchinson Trump +42
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden WJW-TV/Emerson Trump 50, Biden 38 Trump +12
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein WJW-TV/Emerson Trump 45, Biden 31, Kennedy 8, Stein 2, West 1 Trump +14
2024 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary WJW-TV/Emerson Trump 62, Haley 10, DeSantis 8, Ramaswamy 6, Christie 2, Scott 1, Hutchinson 1, Burgum 1 Trump +52
2024 Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary WJW-TV/Emerson Biden 61, Williamson 7, Phillips 2 Biden +54
Ohio Senate - Republican Primary WJW-TV/Emerson LaRose 18, Dolan 15, Moreno 10, Mutchler 3 LaRose +3

[*Nately120*]

It's hard to picture someone other than Trump running in 2024 as a regular ol' straight up battle vs Biden.  I can't see Trump not telling everyone he's a 3rd party or to write him in or to not vote or otherwise mess with the winner of the GOP primary that he will 100% say was rigged. He might even hint that his supporters need to use their 2A to peacefully make sure he's the nominee.