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Clear Politics Updates General election and States
#41
(09-07-2023, 12:46 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Idk, 61% covers a lot more than extreme Right Wingers and lunatic fringe tin foil hatters..  Hell, that's actually getting close to a veto-proof majority.

The bad for Joe Biden is Comer and Jordan are like a dog after a bone (same as Smith is after Trump) and it appears those emails have the possibility of providing the definitive evidence so required by the 39% who think Joe had no business dealings with Hunter and foreign countries.

I watched a little of CNN today and Axelrod (Obama advisor) appears to be suggesting Joe Biden bow out very soon if he can't get the numbers up. All is has to do is fix the economy, fix immigration and prove he had no involvement with son HB's foreign business deals in next 3 months and he is home free.  Sarcasm
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#42
(09-07-2023, 05:49 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: The bad for Joe Biden is Comer and Jordan are like a dog after a bone (same as Smith is after Trump) and it appears those emails have the possibility of providing the definitive evidence so required by the 39% who think Joe had no business dealings with Hunter and foreign countries.

I watched a little of CNN today and Axelrod (Obama advisor) appears to be suggesting Joe Biden bow out very soon if he can't get the numbers up. All is has to do is fix the economy, fix immigration and prove he had no involvement with son HB's foreign business deals in next 3 months and he is home free.  Sarcasm

If I were a betting man, I'd put some money on Gavin Newsome being the 2024 democrat candidate for president.
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#43
(09-07-2023, 05:46 PM)basballguy Wrote: I'd be interested to see if being condescending warrants discipline around here because there are a few posters that (in past) have reeked of it and have always gone unchecked.

Like me! Ninja
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
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#44
(09-07-2023, 12:46 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Idk, 61% covers a lot more than extreme Right Wingers and lunatic fringe tin foil hatters..  Hell, that's actually getting close to a veto-proof majority.

I mean, Democratic leaning voters don't want Biden, they just want Trump even less and the same is true for most independent voters as well right now, though not enough to say for certain what will happen in 2024, plus that is a long ways away.

We can look at all the polls we want right now but between now and then we will see Trump on trial in at least one state criminal case and in one federal criminal case. We will see Hunter Biden indicted and put on trial with a continuation of a special counsel investigation into his mess. We really do not know what is going to happen. I am a defender of polls and statistics, but when you're this far out general election polling is meaningless in a normal cycle. This cycle is the one that Beelzebub has conjured up to make the US pay for their sins, I think.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
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#45
(09-07-2023, 08:16 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: This cycle is the one that Beelzebub has conjured up to make the US pay for their sins, I think.

Well, imho in this case the sin is never reforming an electoral system that by far has outrun its usefulness. The two-party construct is failing you.

I just have to throw this in every month or two.
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#46
(09-07-2023, 10:51 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Speaking of polls..

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/politics/poll-hunter-biden/index.html


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#47
(09-07-2023, 05:43 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Didn't you call people idiots? I have not called you any names, in fact I was making a joke. Relax, football season starts in a few hours.

People in general.

And it always falls back to 'it was a joke, bro'. Of course it's just a joke when you're called on it. Anything to save your own hide when hurling insults directly at someone.
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#48
(09-07-2023, 05:46 PM)basballguy Wrote: I'd be interested to see if being condescending warrants discipline around here because there are a few posters that (in past) have reeked of it and have always gone unchecked.

I imagine that I fall in that group and trust me that I have been checked on it.
Our father, who art in Hell
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Cursed be thy sons and daughters
Of our nemesis who are to blame
Thy kingdom come, Nema
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#49
(09-07-2023, 10:24 PM)GMDino Wrote: [Image: Screenshot-2023-09-07-212302.jpg]






[Image: F5bx8a7b0AAdIv4?format=jpg&name=large]

It's not the poll's fault if they couldn't find anyone on the street to support Biden and defend his alleged profiting from position.
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#50
(09-08-2023, 08:23 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's not the poll's fault if they couldn't find anyone on the street to support Biden and defend his alleged profiting from position.

Ok, you can take that position if you want but it still means the poll is skewed before the questions are even asked and waters down what the poll "means".
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#51
(09-07-2023, 09:33 PM)hollodero Wrote: Well, imho in this case the sin is never reforming an electoral system that by far has outrun its usefulness. The two-party construct is failing you.

I just have to throw this in every month or two.

It is certainly one of many.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
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#52
(09-08-2023, 08:40 AM)GMDino Wrote: Ok, you can take that position if you want but it still means the poll is skewed before the questions are even asked and waters down what the poll "means".

these polls become more and more iffy as long as these polling companies keep relying on landlines to make contact.
 

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#53
(09-08-2023, 08:23 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It's not the poll's fault if they couldn't find anyone on the street to support Biden and defend his alleged profiting from position.

That's because most progressives and liberals aren't in a cult and will openly bash the people on their side when they **** around.

But if you're polling in Cousin ****, Alabama versus Boston, Massachusetts you know exactly the kinds of folks you're asking.
Our father, who art in Hell
Unhallowed, be thy name
Cursed be thy sons and daughters
Of our nemesis who are to blame
Thy kingdom come, Nema
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#54
(09-07-2023, 10:24 PM)GMDino Wrote: [Image: Screenshot-2023-09-07-212302.jpg]






[Image: F5bx8a7b0AAdIv4?format=jpg&name=large]

You do comprehend the only reason they had to do this is because they did not get enough Republican surveys so they had to use norms to represent the Republican view point.

But polling is not an exact science. Does the poll consider shifts in the voting base based on current polling versus from 2020 election results? My guess is no. For example, Trump only won 8% in 2020, but some polls having him winning 20% of the black vote in 2024 due to the negative impact the economy has had on black voters.
https://www.vox.com/2020/11/4/21537966/trump-black-voters-exit-polls

If Trump wins even 12% of the black vote in 2024, it is game over for Biden.
[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]
Free Agency ain't over until it is over. 

First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
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#55
(09-08-2023, 11:27 AM)BigPapaKain Wrote: That's because most progressives and liberals aren't in a cult and will openly bash the people on their side when they **** around.

But if you're polling in Cousin ****, Alabama versus Boston, Massachusetts you know exactly the kinds of folks you're asking.

You and others in this forum keep calling anyone who supports Trump a cult member. I understand that is a talking point for the liberal playbook, but that does not make it true.

Could you provide definitive proof every supporter of Trump is in the "Trump cult"?

Otherwise, it is another example of name calling which is not permitted in this forum.
[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]
Free Agency ain't over until it is over. 

First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
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#56
(09-07-2023, 08:16 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I mean, Democratic leaning voters don't want Biden, they just want Trump even less and the same is true for most independent voters as well right now, though not enough to say for certain what will happen in 2024, plus that is a long ways away.

We can look at all the polls we want right now but between now and then we will see Trump on trial in at least one state criminal case and in one federal criminal case. We will see Hunter Biden indicted and put on trial with a continuation of a special counsel investigation into his mess. We really do not know what is going to happen. I am a defender of polls and statistics, but when you're this far out general election polling is meaningless in a normal cycle. This cycle is the one that Beelzebub has conjured up to make the US pay for their sins, I think.

Please provide a link Independents favor Biden over Trump. Of course Democrats favor Biden over Trump and Republicans favor Trump over Biden.

The key is the Independent voter in 2024. 

Sp please provide a recent poll update or proof Independents favor Biden over Trump.
[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]
Free Agency ain't over until it is over. 

First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
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#57
(09-08-2023, 09:16 AM)pally Wrote: these polls become more and more iffy as long as these polling companies keep relying on landlines to make contact.

I agree, I don't own a landline. But shockingly, the polls have been fairly accurate within margin of error. Of course I think their margin of error is BS, kind of like weather prediction of 20% chance of rain and it rains, but they said they called it correctly.  Sarcasm
[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]
Free Agency ain't over until it is over. 

First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
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#58
(09-08-2023, 12:39 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You and others in this forum keep calling anyone who supports Trump a cult member. I understand that is a talking point for the liberal playbook, but that does not make it true.

Could you provide definitive proof every supporter of Trump is in the "Trump cult"?

Otherwise, it is another example of name calling which is not permitted in this forum.

I've never called anyone here a cult member. 

Your guilty conscience is showing, though.

However, if one were to look up common cult behaviors and compare them to members of Meal Team Six and the visible folks who wave MAGA flags, and listen to the way the parties all speak, you'll find the Venn Diagram of Cult/MAGA movement is a circle.

I'd provide links to save you the Google algorithm hit of searching for cult member behavior, but I'm at a quarry in BFE and am genuinely surprised I could get this page to load. I imagine it'll take about 5 minutes for this to post.

Edit: back in civilization and I just went ahead and Googled all of that for you. I went ahead and posted a screen shot so you can see what I searched and Google's top responses.


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Our father, who art in Hell
Unhallowed, be thy name
Cursed be thy sons and daughters
Of our nemesis who are to blame
Thy kingdom come, Nema
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#59
(09-08-2023, 09:16 AM)pally Wrote: these polls become more and more iffy as long as these polling companies keep relying on landlines to make contact.

Is it "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN" all over again?
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#60
(09-08-2023, 01:26 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: I've never called anyone here a cult member. 

Your guilty conscience is showing, though.

However, if one were to look up common cult behaviors and compare them to members of Meal Team Six and the visible folks who wave MAGA flags, and listen to the way the parties all speak, you'll find the Venn Diagram of Cult/MAGA movement is a circle.

I'd provide links to save you the Google algorithm hit of searching for cult member behavior, but I'm at a quarry in BFE and am genuinely surprised I could get this page to load. I imagine it'll take about 5 minutes for this to post.

Edit: back in civilization and I just went ahead and Googled all of that for you. I went ahead and posted a screen shot so you can see what I searched and Google's top responses.

That describes every politician and both parties.

Again, you keep saying the Trump cult, what makes anyone in a cult due to agreeing with the policies of Trump? First Trump supporters were deplorables, now they are in a cult. Is there like a meeting and they chant and stuff?

So easy. to place labels on things you either don't understand or don't like. We can all have much better debates if we keep it civil (includes me as I know I am guilty a times) and respectful.
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Free Agency ain't over until it is over. 

First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
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