9 months to less than 1 year Polling Trump, Biden, Kennedy, Westand Stein

[*Nately120*]

(02-01-2024, 10:51 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: We are long way from November, but here is polling data prior to 2020 Presidential race. Some say 538 is more accurate, but in reality based off this, they had Biden winning by 8.4%. It appears Harris and Rasmussen were the closest to actual outcome, 2 polling places also on real clear politics.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Weirdly enough, smarkets has the most likely D presidential candidate at the moment as Biden with 83.3% and second place is Michelle Obama at 10.64%. I guess the idea is that Biden may drop dead and democrats would just put a familiar name on the ticket? Hell if I know. I'm not taking that bet. 

https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee

[Luvnit2]

(02-01-2024, 10:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Weirdly enough, smarkets has the most likely D presidential candidate at the moment as Biden with 83.3% and second place is Michelle Obama at 10.64%.  I guess the idea is that Biden may drop dead and democrats would just put a familiar name on the ticket?  Hell if I know.  I'm not taking that bet. 

https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee

Many share the view Joe Biden is not capable to be the POTUS for 5 more years (still almost 1 left) and/or is not capable of beating Trump or Haley.

I think Michelle Obama would be the Democrat's best bet after the show Biden the door. I think SC and Super Tuesday in March will tell Democrats if Biden can win in 2024. The exit approval polls for blacks, hispanics, economy, immigration and other key voting items will boost him or not. SC propelled him to win the Democratic nomination in 2020, funny thing is this year it is Haley who needs a strong showing in her home state to continue and challenge Trump.

[*Nately120*]

(02-01-2024, 11:06 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Many share the view Joe Biden is not capable to be the POTUS for 5 more years (still almost 1 left) and/or is not capable of beating Trump or Haley.

I think Michelle Obama would be the Democrat's best bet after the show Biden the door. I think SC and Super Tuesday in March will tell Democrats if Biden can win in 2024. The exit approval polls for blacks, hispanics, economy, immigration and other key voting items will boost him or not. SC propelled him to win the Democratic nomination in 2020, funny thing is this year it is Haley who needs a strong showing in her home state to continue and challenge Trump.

Michelle Obama seems like an odd choice, but it would be amusing seeing Trump supporters arguing that people voting for a household name with no political office over an experienced politician is stupid.

[Luvnit2]

NBC Poll Feb.4, 2024 which is 9 months from the election.
Sunday, February 4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden
NBC News
Trump 47, Biden 42
Trump
+5
2024 Republican Presidential Nomination
NBC News
Trump 79, Haley 19, DeSantis , Ramaswamy
Trump
+60
General Election: Haley vs. Biden
NBC News
Haley 45, Biden 36
Haley
+9
President Biden Job Approval
NBC News
Approve 37, Disapprove 60
Disapprove
+23
2024 Generic Congressional Vote
NBC News
Republicans 49, Democrats 45
Republicans
+4
Direction of Country
NBC News
Right Direction 22, Wrong Track 73
Wrong Track
+51

[*pally*]

(02-01-2024, 11:06 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Many share the view Joe Biden is not capable to be the POTUS for 5 more years (still almost 1 left) and/or is not capable of beating Trump or Haley.

I think Michelle Obama would be the Democrat's best bet after the show Biden the door. I think SC and Super Tuesday in March will tell Democrats if Biden can win in 2024. The exit approval polls for blacks, hispanics, economy, immigration and other key voting items will boost him or not. SC propelled him to win the Democratic nomination in 2020, funny thing is this year it is Haley who needs a strong showing in her home state to continue and challenge Trump.

The Democratic South Carolina primary was on Feb 3, Joe Biden received 96.2% of the votes

[Luvnit2]

NBC poll end of Jan. 2024.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidenomics-falls-flat-with-voters-trump-take-huge-lead-new-poll

'Bidenomics' falls flat with voters as Trump takes huge lead in new poll
Trump leads Biden overall by 5 percentage points
By Michael Lee Fox News
Published February 4, 2024 5:05pm EST
President Biden is having a difficult time competing with former President Trump on issues such as the economy and the border, despite recent job growth numbers and slowing inflation.

Biden trails Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, by 23 points when voters were asked who would be a better candidate to handle the economy, according to the results of a national NBC News poll released Sunday.

Those numbers come despite Biden's recent argument that his administration's economic policies are starting to work, telling voters in Michigan on Thursday that "inflation is coming down" and that they had "created 800,000 manufacturing jobs."

Despite that, 55% of registered voters said they believe Trump would be the better candidate to steer the economy, compared to 33% who chose Biden.

Trump also boasts large leads over Biden when it comes to securing the border (+35 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+23), on dealing with crime and violence (+21). The former president also has double-digit leads over Biden when it comes to being competitive and effective (+16) and on improving America's standing in the world (+11).

The number on being competitive and effective may be the most concerning one for Biden, according to NBC News, as it represents a massive shift from 2020, when Biden led Trump in the same question by nine points.



What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago," Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said of the results. "On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated."

That reality could be contributing to Biden's continued decline in approval, which hit a new low for his presidency in the poll, coming in at just 37%.


Overall, the poll shows Trump leading Biden by five percentage points, 47% to 42%, among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general election rematch.

The poll was conducted January 26-30, surveying 1,000 registered voters and having a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

[Luvnit2]

Well this could play out as very bad news for not only Biden, but the entire down ballot black and hispanic voters across the country. Democrats are saying the black and hispanic voters do not feel the pain of Democrats decisions, in other words they are stupid and really are doing better under Biden and Democratic policies.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-support-black-voters-plummeting-democrats-blame-disinformation
Biden support from Black voters plummeting as Democrats blame ‘disinformation’
Polls show Biden's support among Black voters has dropped roughly 30 points since 2020
By Anders Hagstrom Fox News
Published February 5, 2024 11:07am EST
President Biden's support among Black voters has dropped significantly since 2020, and his supporters are beginning to blame the change on "disinformation."

The Democratic Party in South Carolina, where the Black vote essentially saved Biden's candidacy in the 2020 primary, launched a program seeking to "educate" the state's Black voters this month. Party officials went on a 30-stop bus tour of the state in an effort to close "the information gap" among Black voters.

"I think there’s a lot of disinformation out there," Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison told NOTUS. "There are a lot of folks who don’t want this president for whatever reason, and I think some foreign and some domestic. They don’t want the record to be straight in terms of what this president has done and accomplished."


"We needed to educate our voters and create a space for our candidates to come talk about their record," Christale Spain, the Democratic Party chair in South Carolina, told the outlet. "That’s really why we launched this historic effort, to fill what I feel is an information gap and not an enthusiasm gap."


Democrats argue Black voters need to be taught about what they say are Biden's major successes, pointing to the Inflation Reduction Act, student loan forgiveness and other issues.


According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released in January, Biden's support among Black voters has fallen to just 63%, down from the 92% that Pew Research Center data shows he won in the 2020 presidential election. His support among Hispanic voters is down to 34% from 59%.

People voting
According to a poll released in January, Biden's support among Black voters has fallen to just 63%, down from the 92% that data shows he won in the 2020 presidential election. (Getty Images)
One student at South Carolina State University told NOTUS that she only began supporting Biden after finding out his record on appointing Black judges to the bench.

"I really didn’t know the information," the student, Zyah Cephus, told the outlet. "I think those are things that the youth need to hear. I think, oftentimes, we’re kind of connected with the wrong things and disconnected with the right things. We know about Nicki Minaj and Megan Thee Stallion, but we don’t know about what’s going on in politics."


"Precisely how scared Democrats should be about Biden’s standing depends on how his plight compares with those of presidents past. And there’s no sugarcoating it: This might be the worst polling environment for an incumbent president one year out from an election since the advent of the polling era in the 1930s and also the most dire situation facing any Democratic presidential candidate in decades," David Faris, a writer and political science professor at Roosevelt University, said last month.

"Panic is entirely warranted," he added.

[Luvnit2]

Why is Biden trailing Trump in National polls and swing states? It is becasue Genocide Joe and Democrats are losing 2 groups who were essential in getting Biden and Democrats elected in 2020 and 2022.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-poll-reveals-dems-losing-significant-support-from-2-key-demographics-especially-concerning

New poll reveals Dems are losing significant support from these 2 key demographics: 'Especially concerning'
Most of the decline in Democrat support from Blacks and Hispanics has been 'recent', according to Gallup
By Andrew Mark Miller Fox News
Published February 7, 2024 12:03pm EST

New polling could potentially serve as a major warning sign for Democrats who have, according to the poll, "lost ground among some of their traditionally stronger support groups" including Black and Hispanic voters where their traditional advantage with those voters is "at record lows."

A Gallup poll released on Wednesday shows that while Democrats still hold a significant advantage over Republicans with Black voters, their 47-point lead is the "smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999."

When asked what political party they identify with, 19% of Black adults said Republican or lean Republican compared to 66% who said Democrat or lean Democrat.


Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones and Lydia Saad explained that most of the decline in Black voters calling themselves Democrat has been in the last few years.

"Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020," Gallup said. "At that time, 77% of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11% the Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation."

Things aren’t much better for Democrats when it comes to Hispanic adults where Gallup shows their current 12-point advantage on Republicans is the lowest since 2011.

Polling also shows that young adults are supporting Democrats at their lowest level in almost 2 decades.

"By 2010, young adults were the only age category giving the Democrats an edge, and their Democratic orientation remained strong until it fell to just eight points in 2023, the slimmest since 2005," Gallup explained.

Overall, Gallup concluded in its "bottom line" that the data should be "especially concerning" for Democrats.

"The data show the Democratic Party retaining advantages among people of color and young adults, but in 2023 it was in a weaker position among these groups than at any point in the past quarter century," Gallup wrote. "Democrats’ reduced support among Black and Hispanic adults should be especially concerning for the party, given Republicans’ continued strength among White adults, who remain the majority of the electorate."

The Gallup polling is in line with several other polls in recent months that have suggested Democrats are hemorrhaging support from minority communities they have historically depended on.

According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released in January, Biden's support among Black voters has fallen to just 63%, down from the 92% that Pew Research Center data shows he won in the 2020 presidential election. His support among Hispanic voters is down to 34% from 59%.

Fox News polling last month also showed that Biden's support among the Black community has shrunk in recent years and showed his approval slid 25% since 2021. He once stood at 87% approval, but that number declined to 62% in 2023.

"Biden cannot afford to lose any piece of his base, especially Black and Hispanic voters," GOP strategist Alex Conant, founding partner at Firehouse Strategies, told Fox News Digital in response to the Gallup poll. "Strong support among Black voters is how he won the nomination in 2016 and put him over the top in several states in the general."


"Everything swing state becomes significantly harder for Biden to win if there’s low turnout among Black or Hispanic voters. And if a lot of them vote for Trump, then it’s game over for Biden."

[Luvnit2]

More concerned black citizens upset with not only Biden but Democrats for their handling our illegal immigrants taking money from citizens who need help.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-aint-black-chicago-voters-blast-democrats-say-trump-better-fit-white-house

'Biden ain't doing s---': Black Chicago voters blast Democrats, say Trump a better fit for White House
Chicago residents shared harsh words for the president and Democratic Party as migrants overwhelm city resources
Taylor Penley By Taylor Penley Fox News
Published February 7, 2024 2:00pm EST
President Biden's support among one key Democratic voting bloc appears to be waning as Black voters blasted him on the streets of Chicago over the weekend.

"Biden ain't doing s---," one disgruntled voter told Quenton Jordan, vice president of the Black Conservative Federation, who spent the day on Chicago's South Side talking to residents.

"We need to get rid of his sleepy a--," she added.


Jordan asked multiple people on the street if they think Biden or former President Trump was best suited for the presidency. Several said Trump.

Some Black voters are becoming frustrated with Democratic policies, Quenton Jordan told Fox News. (Photographer: Jacquelyn Martin/AP/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

"He's a businessman. He's going to think [in terms of] business, and Biden is a racist," one claimed.

"No wars, best years in the stock market," said another about Trump's presidency.

Jordan told Fox News Wednesday that the "resounding response" he received is a reflection of Black Americans' shift toward the Republican Party amid growing frustrations over empty promises and feeling "used" for votes.

The migrant crisis in particular has become a turning point for voters who feel Democrat leaders have pushed Black and brown communities aside in favor of illegal immigrants.

"They've being given resources that Black Americans have been fighting for for decades, and the Democratic Party doesn't seem to have an answer for it," he told "Fox & Friends First" co-host Carley Shimkus.

"The Black community just feels as if, again, they've been lied to. They've been used for their votes, and it's obvious that the resources have been there because they're being given away to people who don't even pay taxes."

The video comes after Biden, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, touted his support among Black voters.

"We will be back here next year," Biden said. "This community [the Black community] is the reason why I'm standing here. I promised this administration would look like America, and I'm proud to have the most diverse administration in all American history," he continued

He also said the blue voting bloc's shift could be a byproduct of Republicans "actively" working to secure the border.


"If you see what's going on down in Texas, it's not the federal government. It's not Joe Biden and his administration. It's the state of Texas, their National Guard, who's actually putting up a fight to control the migrant crisis that we have," he said.

"I think that's evident. Not only Black Americans, but all Americans can see what's going on, and that will play a tremendous role come November."

Biden's support among Black voters has dropped 30 points since 2020.

According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released in January, Biden's support among Black voters has fallen to just 63%, down from the 92% that Pew Research Center data shows he won in the 2020 presidential election. His support among Hispanic voters is down to 34% from 59%.

[Luvnit2]

Small sample, but bad news for Biden and DNC. NYT conducted the interviews with Independent voters across the country.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/11-13-independent-voters-choose-narcissist-trump-over-unfit-biden-ny-times-focus-group

11 of 13 independent voters choose 'narcissist' Trump over 'unfit' Biden in NY Times focus group
The majority of the undecided voters in the focus group said they'd vote for Donald Trump if the election were held today
By Kristine Parks Fox News
Published February 14, 2024 6:00am EST
Independent voters from around the country had scathing remarks to describe President Biden in a focus group published Tuesday, with most admitting they are leaning toward former President Trump in 2024 despite their own derisive assessments of him.

The New York Times spoke with 13 undecided, independent voters at length about the two leading candidates and the issues most important to them heading into the election. The voters, ranging from 22-64 years old, were most concerned about the economy, citing the rising costs of groceries and other bills. Of 13 voters, 12 said they would base their vote on this issue, and 11 of them said they were leaning toward Trump in the election.

Others were "deeply troubled by the crisis at the southern border, and some were concerned about the Israel-Gaza war and disliked U.S. aid to other countries," The Times reported.


When asked what they thought about Biden, the voters didn't hold back in their blunt assessments.
Independent voters in a focus group gave a blistering assessment of President Biden's leadership and his performance in office. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

"He’s a little bit senile, and I do think if you can’t do the job, it’s time to step down," Natalie, 22, remarked.

"I think he’s unfit for the presidency. A president should be the commander in chief. And he does not appear to be a capable commander in chief," Richard, 36, said.
North Carolina counselor Kim, 43, called Biden a "puppet."

"That’s because I feel like he really tap-dances. I don’t know what he’s done. It just seems like he’s just throwing things out there to please almost anyone," she claimed.

Alabama mother Yalena, 22, also felt she couldn't trust the president.

The word that immediately came up was ‘disingenuous,’" she told The Times. "Nothing that is said really connects with me. I don’t feel like I’m being told the truth. I don’t feel like I’m being told anything upfront. I was just so disappointed — with the ounce of hope I had left — when we just started pouring money into the Israel conflict," she added.

BLACK VOTERS REJECTING BIDEN AS SUPPORT DWINDLES AHEAD OF 2024: ‘EVERYTHING WAS BETTER’ UNDER TRUMP
Some voters told The New York Times they couldn't trust President Biden because he had failed to deliver on promises about student loan forgiveness, for example. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Voters also had negative things to say about Trump that were largely centered on their perceptions of his personality, calling the former president "egotistical," a "narcissist" and "disastrous."

Despite these reservations, 11 of the 13 voters said they'd vote for Trump over Biden if the election were held today.

"Donald Trump did a better job. Joe Biden, I mean, I feel like I don’t have a president," Yalena said. She credited the former president with "starting a conversation" on immigration.

"Sure, it was divisive, and sure, it really wasn’t the most productive, but it really highlighted problems and the divisiveness that was already hidden inside of our country," she continued.

Some voters in the focus group weren't convinced there was anything Biden could do to win their vote.

"I don’t know what he could say, in my opinion, just because we’ve been a disaster since he’s been there," Meaghan, 36, remarked.


Independent undecided voters told The New York Times they would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held today. (Getty Images )

"Take a look at what’s happening with the economy. Look at it for real with your eyes and not all your people around you," Robin, 59, from New Hampshire added.

Even one of the two voters who said he'd vote for Biden over Trump if the election were held that day admitted Biden wasn't "inspiring, at all."

"There’s not much you could basically tell him other than just come up with great policies for the country," Henry, a consultant from Georgia, confessed.

When asked if their vote would be swayed if Trump was convicted on the many charges he's facing across different cases, the participants who responded said the outcome of his trials didn't matter to them.

"To me, it doesn’t affect anything. His life, he puts it right out there. I’m sick of hearing it, but it’s him. So if I’m going to vote for him, that’s part of what I accept," Robin said.
Some undecided independent voters said the outcome of Trump's trials wouldn't sway their vote. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
"I’ve already formed my opinion regarding Trump, so it wouldn’t hurt or help my opinion," Lorraine, 56 added.

The majority of the focus group also expressed they were anxious and worried about the upcoming election. Some voters said they felt the country was headed in the wrong direction and leaders had failed to represent Americans' interests.

"Like no matter who gets voted into office, I think our options suck either way, and I don’t really see any progress," Natalie confessed.

A Fox News poll from December found Trump leading Biden among young voters by a 13-point margin. However, the majority of Americans feel both candidates – Trump is 77 and Biden is 81 – are too old to serve another term as president, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.