Final 2023 Offensive Line Rankings

[SunsetBengal]

(02-15-2023, 06:04 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Keep Jonah and Carmen at LT pushing each other.
Draft Darnell Wright to man the RT spot for the next decade.
Move LC to left guard, he's played it before and all of his issues in pass blocking was his inability to get wide on speed rushers and ending up on the ground.  LC in a phone booth could be tough to handle.

LC, Karras, and Cappa could make for a solid IOL....

I have a strong feeling that both Mixon and Colins have played their last games as Bengals.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 06:25 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I have a strong feeling that both Mixon and Colins have played their last games as Bengals.

They are definitely the obvious candidates.  Mixon might be easy to work with, not sure he has many other high paying options.  

We cant cut LC until he is healthy or they come to an injury settlement, who knows when that will be?

[Soonerpeace]

(02-15-2023, 06:04 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Keep Jonah and Carmen at LT pushing each other.
Draft Darnell Wright to man the RT spot for the next decade.
Move LC to left guard, he's played it before and all of his issues in pass blocking was his inability to get wide on speed rushers and ending up on the ground.  LC in a phone booth could be tough to handle.

LC, Karras, and Cappa could make for a solid IOL....

That sounds good. They didn’t win every QB sneak but a couple of times the Philly OL looked like a semi pushing back the KC DL.

[*Synric*]

(02-15-2023, 06:04 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Keep Jonah and Carmen at LT pushing each other.
Draft Darnell Wright to man the RT spot for the next decade.
Move LC to left guard, he's played it before and all of his issues in pass blocking was his inability to get wide on speed rushers and ending up on the ground.  LC in a phone booth could be tough to handle.

LC, Karras, and Cappa could make for a solid IOL....

If they add more offensive linemen with no range they will continue to struggle in the run game because they will be limited. If the Bengals IOL could pull I'd be all for getting a Tackle that is with limited range and good pass pro but they don't have IOL that can pull so they have to get that range through the tackles since they are locked into 3 of 3 IOL contracts.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 06:37 PM)Synric Wrote: If they add more offensive linemen with no range they will continue to struggle in the run game because they will be limited. If the Bengals IOL could pull I'd be all for getting a Tackle that is with limited range and good pass pro but they don't have IOL that can pull so they have to get that range through the tackles since they are locked into 3 of 3 IOL contracts.

You really think so?  I look at these three guys and I see the speed and agility of John Hannah, Demarcus Dawson and Larry Allen.....

Lol, let's just say LC, Karras and Cappa are not pulling for any power sweeps... ever.  But damn maybe they can our improve flaccid short yardage situation?  

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 06:37 PM)Synric Wrote: If they add more offensive linemen with no range they will continue to struggle in the run game because they will be limited. If the Bengals IOL could pull I'd be all for getting a Tackle that is with limited range and good pass pro but they don't have IOL that can pull so they have to get that range through the tackles since they are locked into 3 of 3 IOL contracts.

How is this for range?  No way Fitzpatrick gets a pick six vs us if we had LA...

[*Synric*]

(02-15-2023, 06:47 PM)casear2727 Wrote: You really think so?  I look at these three guys and I see the speed and agility of John Hannah, Demarcus Dawson and Larry Allen.....

Lol, let's just say LC, Karras and Cappa are not pulling for any power sweeps... ever.  But damn maybe they can our improve flaccid short yardage situation?  

People think gap/power is only inside runs and that's not true pin/pull is a major part of the gap/power system and the Bengals tried to run it but struggled. Right now its not gap or zone that's killing them its the ability to attack the edges of the defense with the rush offense. They ran Tight and Inside zone fairly well along with basic gaps duos and traps. Its everything outside of the tackle's shoulder they has issues with.. and with the coverages the Bengals routinely saw they had opportunities for big plays in the run offense.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 07:05 PM)Synric Wrote: People think gap/power is only inside runs and that's not true pin/pull is a major part of the gap/power system and the Bengals tried to run it but struggled. Right now its not gap or zone that's killing them its the ability to attack the edges of the defense with the rush offense. They ran Tight and Inside zone fairly well along with basic gaps duos and traps. Its everything outside of the tackle's shoulder they has issues with.. and with the coverages the Bengals routinely saw they had opportunities for big plays in the run offense.

I agree, the only designed outside run play that we have that is barely effective is a jet sweep with a motion man.  I can recall ONE actual pitch that was meant to go wide, went wide, and was successful, and Trayveon ran that vs the Titans.

[*Synric*]

(02-15-2023, 07:15 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I agree, the only designed outside run play that we have that is barely effective is a jet sweep with a motion man.  I can recall ONE actual pitch that was meant to go wide, went wide, and was successful, and Trayveon ran that vs the Titans.

Mixon had a pitch I think it was his first game back from injury that went 40 yards. One game that sticks out to me is the Buccaneers game all year teams had been attacking the edges with the run and finding alot of success against the Bucs. The Bengals come in and pull a ton to the boundaries and didn't get anywhere.

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 07:19 PM)Synric Wrote: Mixon had a pitch I think it was his first game back from injury that went 40 yards. One game that sticks out to me is the Buccaneers game all year teams had been attacking the edges with the run and finding alot of success against the Bucs. The Bengals come in and pull a ton to the boundaries and didn't get anywhere.

I think Joe had one as well but I couldnt remember if it was a quick toss to the 7 gap or if it was actually a wide sweep, I do recall he ended up on the outside.  Yep, Bucs defense is way faster than our running offense.

[Frank Booth]

Collins played his best years at LG, don’t forget that

[casear2727]

(02-15-2023, 07:58 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Collins played his best years at LG, don’t forget that

Those videos of him pulling and destroying multiple defenders were from LG.

[Essex Johnson]

We continue to be in the lower tier.. very sad

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-15-2023, 11:57 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I've posted stuff like this in here before, but I enjoy doing football analytics as a hobby, for those who aren't familiar. I've posted threads during the season which included a prediction of 11 wins as of week four, top WR in franchise history, franchise QB analysis, and more. One of the things that I have enjoyed the most is trying to find a formula that works for offensive line play. I know that PFF grades exist, but I am not a big fan of them or the process that they do. So, I started trying to develop something that allowed us to use numbers to rank the lines. Below is the result for the 2023 season...

           

The formatting is a bit wonky, sorry for that. When I write the code to create the final table, it spits it out as a long .html page. It is supposed to be able to be inserted into a website and you can interact with it, using a search bar and all. However, I can't embed that table onto the site, so screenshots will have to do. 

Methodology - There are five components to this formula - pressure percentage, sack percentage, yards before contact, penalty percentage, and time to throw. Time to throw is used as a small modifier to the overall passing score. The logic for including it was based on the idea of a team having a middle of the road pressure percentage but their QB had a TTT of nearly three seconds - one of the longest in the entire league. How does that factor in? Having an average pressure percentage allowed with a QB who is slow in releasing the ball is pretty good, when you consider the context. So, that is where it came in. Anyways, I take the league average and standard deviation of these metrics and calculate a z-score to figure out how they compare to the mean. Finally, I aggregate these numbers with some weights attached to them and normalize them to a scale of 100 for aesthetics. 

Results - Overall, I am happy with the results. There are some questionable rankings, and one that I keep going back to is the Jaguars. As a sanity check, I referenced a few end-of-season OL rankings. One of them was this PFF ranking. I'll touch on a few of the major discrepancies below...

• JAX - Perhaps there is context missing in my formula. That wouldn't surprise me at all, and I like to tinker with it, but based on what we have, the Jaguars played well this season. They allowed the 8th best pressure percentage, 12th best sack percentage, very minimal penalties and they blocked for the second best yards before contact. Now, Lawrence had a very fast TTT, only slightly slower than Joe Burrow, so that brings down their passing grade a bit. This makes me wonder if I am weighting rushing too heavily. Lowering the rushing weight takes them down to 6th and lowering it even more takes them to 8th. That may be more accurate, but I think the relative area of where they are ranked feels solid.
• CAROLINA - PFF has them ranked 15th and they are 32nd in mine. The reason why is because they allowed the highest pressure percentage in the league (36%), highest sack percentage in the league (6.6%), racked up a lot of penalties, and were mediocre in yards before contact. Carolina QBs held the ball slightly longer than league average, but nothing major. (2.76 vs. 2.77). 
• CHICAGO - Chicago is ranked 14th in the PFF rankings but 30th in mine. They ranked 26th in pressure percentage allowed, were 31st in sack percentage allowed, and were the worst team in the league in yards before contact.
  

I think that'll do, as far as explanations go. If anyone else has any specific questions, feel free to ask. 

Cincinnati - These results are really disappointing, as far as Cincinnati goes. I did this ranking last year and Cincinnati came out as the worst ranked offensive line in the league. Unsurprisingly, that line was also one of the worst ranked lines in franchise history. You can see that analysis here. The line this year didn't really get much better, relatively speaking. They improved six spots but still struggled to keep Joe clean, even with a lightning fast release. Now, it is fair to give them credit where it is due. They did hit stride after week eight until week 17, logging a pressure percentage allowed of 21.1% and a sack percentage of 3.1%. If that would have been their actual season results, they would have ranked 6th in pressure percentage and 13th-ish in sack percentage. However, once the injuries started coming in, things deteriorated very quickly. From week 17 to the AFCCG, the Bengals surrendered a sack percentage of 4.6% (26th) and a pressure percentage of 30.7% (28th). Of course, the running game also never got going, either.

So, it really looks like the upgrades to the offensive line were working, but the injuries derailed all of that progress at the worst time in the season. I don't want to make this post any more long winded than it is, so I will end it here but if anyone has any questions, feel free to ask. 

Good stuff, but I don't see how the Browns offensive line is ranked so poorly.  All I heard (and saw) was how their RBs had so much space before initial contact and their QBs had all day to throw.  Seemed like bad QB play might have hurt their scores?  Watson clearly didn't have his timing and had tons of pressures that could have been avoided if he sped up the process a bit.  In other words, he would have been killed (like many others) behind Joe Burrow's line.  

[casear2727]

(02-16-2023, 10:32 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Good stuff, but I don't see how the Browns offensive line is ranked so poorly.  All I heard (and saw) was how their RBs had so much space before initial contact and their QBs had all day to throw.  Seemed like bad QB play might have hurt their scores?  Watson clearly didn't have his timing and had tons of pressures that could have been avoided if he sped up the process a bit.  In other words, he would have been killed (like many others) behind Joe Burrow's line.  

I believe the Browns oline was still Top 5 in rushing yards.

[KillerGoose]

(02-16-2023, 10:32 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Good stuff, but I don't see how the Browns offensive line is ranked so poorly.  All I heard (and saw) was how their RBs had so much space before initial contact and their QBs had all day to throw.  Seemed like bad QB play might have hurt their scores?  Watson clearly didn't have his timing and had tons of pressures that could have been avoided if he sped up the process a bit.  In other words, he would have been killed (like many others) behind Joe Burrow's line.  

Cleveland was quite poor in yards before contact. They ranked 24th, averaging only 1.05 yards before contact (league average was 1.29 yards). They were slightly better than league average in pressures allowed and slightly worse than league average in sacks allowed, but this is largely offset by the absurd TTT Cleveland QBs had (3.03 seconds). It's really their poor rushing that pushes them down. Removing the rushing data, they rank 16th. Adding the rushing data pushes them down to 20th. There's probably an argument for considering raising the impact of TTT, but I only want it to be a slight modifier so I would have to play with it some. 

EDIT - I just raised the impact of TTT and with all data included, Cleveland would rank 17th with this change. Cincinnati drops to 28th.

[casear2727]

(02-16-2023, 10:52 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Cleveland was quite poor in yards before contact. They ranked 24th, averaging only 1.05 yards before contact (league average was 1.29 yards). They were slightly better than league average in pressures allowed and slightly worse than league average in sacks allowed, but this is largely offset by the absurd TTT Cleveland QBs had (3.03 seconds). It's really their poor rushing that pushes them down. Removing the rushing data, they rank 16th. Adding the rushing data pushes them down to 20th. There's probably an argument for considering raising the impact of TTT, but I only want it to be a slight modifier so I would have to play with it some. 

EDIT - I just raised the impact of TTT and with all data included, Cleveland would rank 17th with this change. Cincinnati drops to 28th.

Wow, so how good is Chubb if the Browns were still 5th in the league in rushing yards per game and Top 10 in per attempt?

We were, pathetically, 29th and 28th respectively in these categories.  Maybe if we paid Mixon more money?

[KillerGoose]

(02-16-2023, 10:59 AM)casear2727 Wrote: Wow, so how good is Chubb if the Browns were still 5th in the league in rushing yards per game and Top 10 in per attempt?

We were, pathetically, 29th and 28th respectively in these categories.  Maybe if we paid Mixon more money?

Chubb is absolutely absurd. He averaged 3.5 yards after contact, totaling 1,050 of his 1,525 yards. This was good for 7th out of 45 RBs with 100+ carries. Mixon averaged 2.61, good for 39th out of 45. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-16-2023, 11:04 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Chubb is absolutely absurd. He averaged 3.5 yards after contact, totaling 1,050 of his 1,525 yards. This was good for 7th out of 45 RBs with 100+ carries. Mixon averaged 2.61, good for 39th out of 45. 

Whoa!

Thought he was the best in the league, this pretty much confirms it in my eyes.