Johnson/Weld Ad

[BmorePat87]

Based on the polls chosen, it looks like Johnson will not make the cut for the debates.

4 of the 5 polls chosen include Stein in addition to Johnson. In a three person poll, Johnson gets 10-13%. In a 4 person poll, he gets only 8-10%. With a month less to raise his stock, going from 10 to 15% is a more daunting task than going from 13 to 15%.

[Rotobeast]

(08-17-2016, 12:12 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Based on the polls chosen, it looks like Johnson will not make the cut for the debates.

4 of the 5 polls chosen include Stein in addition to Johnson. In a three person poll, Johnson gets 10-13%. In a 4 person poll, he gets only 8-10%. With a month less to raise his stock, going from 10 to 15% is a more daunting task than going from 13 to 15%.

I think it will be close.
He has a lot more money to work with and there's been a couple more Republicans jump to his side.
If Romney and Bush would follow through, we'd be in there.

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[JustWinBaby]

Hmmmm....that's even shadier if a candidate can get to 15%, but when a fourth party is included they fall below.

Technically, it doesn't change their argument. But if that's allowed, then all you have to do is throw in a big name, say a Biden, in the 11th hour to take away a few points and knock them below the threshold.

[Rotobeast]

(08-17-2016, 02:17 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Hmmmm....that's even shadier if a candidate can get to 15%, but when a fourth party is included they fall below.

Technically, it doesn't change their argument. But if that's allowed, then all you have to do is throw in a big name, say a Biden, in the 11th hour to take away a few points and knock them below the threshold.

Yeah, that seems possible.
I wouldn't put it past them.


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[Rotobeast]

So..... in Miami last night, the auditorium filled to capacity.
There were 100 people turned away.

What does Gary Johnson do ?

He goes out to meet and take pictures with those people.


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[JustWinBaby]

(08-18-2016, 03:40 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: So..... in Miami last night, the auditorium filled to capacity.
There were 100 people turned away.

Polling at 10% is no joke - that's @ 13M voters.

Problem is he seems to have plateaued...I still believe if he got into the debates and did well he picks up at least another 13M voters.

With Trump and Clinton somewhere north of 50% unfavorable ratings, there is theoretically easily 20-25% of voters just waiting to discover a decent candidate (most of whom, presumably, know little-to-nothing about Gary Johnson).

That's why he won't be allowed in the debates.  If he pulls 20% of the vote, slightly more from Trump or Hillary or vice versa will reverse results in some key swing states.

[Rotobeast]

(08-18-2016, 04:06 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Polling at 10% is no joke - that's @ 13M voters.

Problem is he seems to have plateaued...I still believe if he got into the debates and did well he picks up at least another 13M voters.

With Trump and Clinton somewhere north of 50% unfavorable ratings, there is theoretically easily 20-25% of voters just waiting to discover a decent candidate (most of whom, presumably, know little-to-nothing about Gary Johnson).

That's why he won't be allowed in the debates.  If he pulls 20% of the vote, slightly more from Trump or Hillary or vice versa will reverse results in some key swing states.

If he gets anywhere near 20% in polling before November, he'll have a he'll of a shot at winning.

If he garners 20% in the election, I'd say he wins a couple states outright.

If not enough electoral votes are obtained and the president & vp are picked by Senate/House, do they pick only from the field of current candidates, or can they pull anyone out of their hat ?



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[JustWinBaby]

(08-18-2016, 04:19 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: If not enough electoral votes are obtained and the president & vp are picked by Senate/House, do they pick only from the field of current candidates, or can they pull anyone out of their hat ?

I think they pick from the people on Presidential ballots, but don't have to pick an entire ticket....Possibly would end-up Johnson as POTUS and Pence as VP.

That would be the most likely scenario, with Johnson winning a few states preventing neither Trump nor Hillary getting 270...but would require Trump winning key swing states (a distinct possibility if Johnson pulls a little more support from Hillary's camp than Trump's).

My guess is Repubs are perfectly happy with Hillary winning, and will hope to leverage that into mid-term gains in the House and Senate, then take another shot at her in 2020 when a flailing Obamacare and expected recession will severely dampen her re-election chances.

And interesting development would be, knowing results of the election, if the Senate were split 50/50 the House could appear to "compromise" choosing Hillary (not sure that isn't political suicide, though) with Pence as VP holding the deciding vote in the Senate.

[Rotobeast]

(08-18-2016, 04:27 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: I think they pick from the people on Presidential ballots, but don't have to pick an entire ticket....Possibly would end-up Johnson as POTUS and Pence as VP.

That would be the most likely scenario, with Johnson winning a few states preventing neither Trump nor Hillary getting 270...but would require Trump winning key swing states (a distinct possibility if Johnson pulls a little more support from Hillary's camp than Trump's).

My guess is Repubs are perfectly happy with Hillary winning, and will hope to leverage that into mid-term gains in the House and Senate, then take another shot at her in 2020 when a flailing Obamacare and expected recession will severely dampen her re-election chances.

From what I've read, Johnson is targeting pissed off Bernie voters and unsure Hilldog voters.
I'm guessing he figures that more republicans will jump onboard, should he get more endorsements.
He owns the military vote and the youth vote.
The Hispanic voters are currently starting to line up behind him, too.

I'm seeing his stagnant poll numbers, but it doesn't make sense.
He gaining A LOT more funds and has received more exposure.
Something doesn't add up, to me.

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[fredtoast]

(08-18-2016, 04:27 PM)JustWinBaby Wrote: And interesting development would be, knowing results of the election, if the Senate were split 50/50 the House could appear to "compromise" choosing Hillary (not sure that isn't political suicide, though) with Pence as VP holding the deciding vote in the Senate.

Senate does not get to vote.

President would be chosen by the House.  Since Republicans have a big majority and there are more Tea Party type nutjpbs in the House than the Senate there is a good chance Trump wins.

[JustWinBaby]

(08-18-2016, 04:35 PM)Rotobeast Wrote: I'm seeing his stagnant poll numbers, but it doesn't make sense.

I don't know.  When Stein is included, I think she clearly takes votes from him.  And I think Johnson had been taking some Bernie supporters who have either gotten behind Hillary after the convention or have gone to Stein.

And another sinister way polls can be manipulated is deliberately oversampling in a way that hurts Johnson.  No idea if that's the case, but it's something that can be done....especially given the CPD polls are major networks/news that are pretty clearly either pro-Dem or pro-Repub.

[JustWinBaby]

(08-18-2016, 04:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Senate does not get to vote.

I was referring to the fact that the VP breaks ties in the Senate.

[Rotobeast]

(08-18-2016, 04:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Senate does not get to vote.

President would be chosen by the House.  Since Republicans have a big majority and there are more Tea Party type nutjpbs in the House than the Senate there is a good chance Trump wins.

Sorry.... I thought they voted on VP, in the scenario.


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[BmorePat87]

(08-18-2016, 04:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Senate does not get to vote.

President would be chosen by the House.  Since Republicans have a big majority and there are more Tea Party type nutjpbs in the House than the Senate there is a good chance Trump wins.

Not necessarily. Remember, it's by state, with each state getting 1 vote. How many states have a majority that would support Trump over Johnson. How many Democratic controlled states would compromise with moderate Republicans and swing in his favor?

This would require Johnson to have some electoral votes (top 3 electoral vote getters are considered), but I could see a Johnson/Kaine compromise ticket if Congress has to vote. 

[BmorePat87]

(08-18-2016, 06:44 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Not necessarily. Remember, it's by state, with each state getting 1 vote. How many states have a majority that would support Trump over Johnson. How many Democratic controlled states would compromise with moderate Republicans and swing in his favor?

This would require Johnson to have some electoral votes (top 3 electoral vote getters are considered), but I could see a Johnson/Kaine compromise ticket if Congress has to vote. 

36 Republican states
3 tied states
11 Democratic states

They'd need those tied states and 12 of the Republican states. 

Some possible states that could turn from Trump:

Wyoming: Single at large
Wisconsin: You'd need 2 Republicans to join Democrats to oppose Trump
Virginia: 3 switch
South Dakota: single at large
North Dakota: single at large 
Nevada: 2 switch
Nebraska: 1 switch
Montana: Single at large 
Missouri: 3 switch
Mississippi: 3 switch
Minnesota: 3 switch
Louisiana: 3 switch 
Kentucky: 3 switch
Iowa: 2 switch
Indiana: 3 switch
Idaho: 2 switch
Colorado: 1 switch
Arkansas: 3 switch
Arizona: 1 switch
Alaska: Single at large 
Alabama: 3 switch

I'd throw out Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. That's 16 states you need 12 of which to reverse on Trump. 

Wyoming's Lummis was a Cruz supporter and has spoken out on Trump's need to balance his temperament with a solid VP pick.
Wisconsin will likely go to Clinton in the general, she's up double digits. Would they respect the voters anti-Trump sentiment and not back him?
Virginia will also likely go to Clinton. Ignore them and back Trump over someone else, or compromise with the Senate and get Kaine on the ticket?
South Dakota's Noem wouldn't commit to Trump until he locked it up. Could swap. 
Nevada is a SLIGHT Clinton lead right now. 
I'm assuming Nebraska isn't in play.
Montana's Zinke is a Trump man.
Missouri is a SLIGHT Trump lead. Could go Clinton.
Minnesota leans Clinton right now.
Iowa is a SLIGHT Clinton lead right now and went Cruz.
Indiana will back Trump and any effort to get Pence elected.
Idaho is unlikely to waiver but it's only 2 people, so who knows.
Colorado will almost definitely go Clinton, they only need one convert, and Johnson polls well there.
Arizona is in play and only 1 needs to switch.
Alaska's Don Young blamed "idiots" for letting Trump win the Primary. 


Again, this is a scenario that assumes three candidates get electoral votes and none reach 270. I expect Hillary to get well over 270.

[fredtoast]

(08-18-2016, 06:44 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Not necessarily. Remember, it's by state, with each state getting 1 vote.

I don't think that is right.  I think each state "delegation" has a single vote.  That means one vote for each seat in the House, correct?

Plus the House can only choose from the top three finishers in the general election.

[BmorePat87]

(08-20-2016, 02:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't think that is right.  I think each state "delegation" has a single vote.  That means one vote for each seat in the House, correct?

Plus the House can only choose from the top three finishers in the general election.

No, you're right, I forgot each delegation gets votes based on their total number of representatives, not evenly per state. Still opens it up for Trump losing. If you have moderates side with Democrats, they can ensure a Trump loss.

Also, the last part is correct. Top 3 who won electoral votes. As I said, this scenario would only happen if Johnson somehow won a state like New Mexico.

[Rotobeast]

Well now.....
Looks like Gary is making a smooth move to court Romney, a little harder.

http://beta.deseretnews.com/article/865660664/Gary-Johnson-wants-Mitt-Romney-and-Michael-Leavitt-in-administration.html?pg=all

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[fredtoast]

(08-22-2016, 01:01 AM)Rotobeast Wrote: Well now.....
Looks like Gary is making a smooth move to court Romney, a little harder.

http://beta.deseretnews.com/article/865660664/Gary-Johnson-wants-Mitt-Romney-and-Michael-Leavitt-in-administration.html?pg=all

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Pretty savvy

If corporations are people then they should each get a vote, right?

And I guarantee that Libertarians would carry about 99% of the corporation vote.

[BmorePat87]

(08-22-2016, 12:00 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: No, you're right, I forgot each delegation gets votes based on their total number of representatives, not evenly per state. Still opens it up for Trump losing. If you have moderates side with Democrats, they can ensure a Trump loss.

Also, the last part is correct. Top 3 who won electoral votes. As I said, this scenario would only happen if Johnson somehow won a state like New Mexico.

Ok, to clarify, I was correct, I read some stuff on 1824 incorrectly after Fred asked about my post.

Each state has a single vote. The reps from each state vote and the winning candidate in that state gets the state's 1 vote. If no one wins, there's a "no vote" cast by the state. A candidate needs 26 of 50 to win.