"No Tax on Tips" Vote Trump

[SunsetBengal]

(06-17-2024, 11:34 AM)CKwi88 Wrote: You mean paying customers aren't expected to subsidize the establishment's cost of paying their employees a living wage?

Smells like Commusocialism. Some -ism. Not sure which. Bet the service stinks too. I mean, without dangling the carrot of meaningful pay as motivation why would anyone do the job they are paid to do?

Whenever any discussion on the topic of tipping comes along, it immediately takes me to an episode of 3rd Rock from the Sun. Dick is at a restaurant and places a stack of ones on the table and informs the server that that represents the maximum tip that they can earn from satisfactory service. He goes onto explain that every time the server does something that he doesn't like, he removes dollars from the stack, etc. If you've never seen it, I suggest watching for a good laugh.

[CJD]

(06-18-2024, 03:03 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Simple, Trump's last year in office inflation was less than 2%. Biden's first year in office it spiked to almost 8% due to his energy policies. Then in 2022, it was even worse. All of the inflation caused by Bidenomics created higher interest rates as Feds were forced to hike interest rates to curb Biden's inflation.

Look at one key energy fact. Bidenomics green emery policies caused the price of gasoline to raise 50%. As Carville says, it's the economy stupid and Bidenomics specific poor policy decisions were the cause, not a pandemic.

I hear liberals tout the job numbers but fail to mention Biden was going against a Pandemic of job losses. Fast forward to 2024, the jobs report shows an increase of part time and immigrant workers. In fact, more immigrant job creation than US citizen job creation under Biden. Biden is also under water with wage growth versus inflation. Simply, people make more money, but pay more taxes on net income and their dollar also does not go as far. An average family of 4 spends $11,000 more per year under Biden due to inflation and high interest rates.

Considering inflation rates similar to (or worse than) America occurred worldwide, I question how much Biden's policies had an effect on this, especially considering the largest inflation rate increase from the previous year was 2021 (3.46% increase from 2020). In order for Biden to be responsible for that, his policies would have had to have been enacted incredibly quickly, especially since policies tend to create a lagged response in terms of their reflection in the economy.

For example, research has shown that federal fund rate changes typically start affecting the most responsive prices about 18 months after enactment. If Biden's policies that you vaguely alluded to were 3 times as fast to affect the market, 2021's inflation rate would likely still not have been noticeably affected.

Given the global inflation rates in that time frame and the timing of the inflation rate increases, I find the odds that Biden's policies caused the inflation to be doubtful.

But if you have resources, I'd be open to reading them.

In that linked article, the conclusions were presented as such:

Quote:Applying the typical impact timing of the most responsive group of goods and services to the most recent tightening cycle, shown by the federal funds rate line in Figure 4, leads to several conclusions. First, rate cuts from 2019 to early 2020 could have contributed upward price pressures starting in mid- to late 2020 and thus could explain some of the rise in inflation over this period. Second, the tightening cycle that began in March 2022 likely started putting downward pressure on prices in mid-2023 and will continue to do so in the near term. This is consistent with the view that the full effects of monetary policy tightening have yet to be felt. Finally, though inflation for the most responsive categories has been falling since mid-2022, the early part of this decline was likely to have been driven more by changes in prevailing economic conditions than by policy tightening, given estimated policy lags.

Now, I am not one to blame Trump's rate cuts in 2019 and early 2020 for the inflation rises in the 2020 to early 2022 time frame, but this researcher thinks it's possible that the inflation rates you're blaming on Biden might actually be Trump's fault.

Wouldn't that be funny if it were the case?

[SunsetBengal]

(06-18-2024, 03:25 PM)CJD Wrote: Considering inflation rates similar to (or worse than) America occurred worldwide, I question how much Biden's policies had an effect on this, especially considering the largest inflation rate increase from the previous year was 2021 (3.46% increase from 2020). In order for Biden to be responsible for that, his policies would have had to have been enacted incredibly quickly, especially since policies tend to create a lagged response in terms of their reflection in the economy.

For example, research has shown that federal fund rate changes typically start affecting the most responsive prices about 18 months after enactment. If Biden's policies that you vaguely alluded to were 3 times as fast to affect the market, 2021's inflation rate would likely still not have been noticeably affected.

Given the global inflation rates in that time frame and the timing of the inflation rate increases, I find the odds that Biden's policies caused the inflation to be doubtful.

But if you have resources, I'd be open to reading them.

In that linked article, the conclusions were presented as such:


Now, I am not one to blame Trump's rate cuts in 2019 and early 2020 for the inflation rises in the 2020 to early 2022 time frame, but this researcher thinks it's possible that the inflation rates you're blaming on Biden might actually be Trump's fault.

Wouldn't that be funny if it were the case?

One has to be careful when quoting statistics like that one. Some of the 'adjusted numbers' have been recalculated omitting the cost of fuel and food, so that the claimed inflationary number is smaller than what was/is actually felt by the average consumer.  Most average American consumers buy food and fuel. 

[CJD]

(06-18-2024, 03:37 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: One has to be careful when quoting statistics like that one. Some of the 'adjusted numbers' have been recalculated omitting the cost of fuel and food, so that the claimed inflationary number is smaller than what was/is actually felt by the average consumer.  Most average American consumers buy food and fuel. 

I got the number from here.

it seemed to be in line with other reports of inflation like here, where the rise from 2020 to 2021 was 3.5% (from 1.2% to 4.7%).

If they're unreliable or inaccurate, I can just delete the number because the actual number is immaterial to the point I was making.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-18-2024, 03:46 PM)CJD Wrote: I got the number from here.

it seemed to be in line with other reports of inflation like here, where the rise from 2020 to 2021 was 3.5% (from 1.2% to 4.7%).

If they're unreliable or inaccurate, I can just delete the number because the actual number is immaterial to the point I was making.

Fair enough. I just get anxious when I see inflation numbers, because I've seen articles comparing the adjusted to unadjusted numbers. Not unlike the jobs report, which always seems to be presented as great news because it is projected data, then a month or so later the adjusted jobs report comes along and the media keeps a low tone about it.

[Luvnit2]

(06-18-2024, 03:46 PM)CJD Wrote: I got the number from here.

it seemed to be in line with other reports of inflation like here, where the rise from 2020 to 2021 was 3.5% (from 1.2% to 4.7%).

If they're unreliable or inaccurate, I can just delete the number because the actual number is immaterial to the point I was making.

What was inflation around the world from 2017 two 2020? Was it a little over 5% year over year for the combined 4 years. I am sure you want to use the same apples to apples comparison, so you are accurate. 

Did you forget gasoline is not even calculated for inflation? But Biden's energy policies killed gasoline prices and had more to do with change in policy from Trump than a Pandemic. The inflation went crazy because if poor economic energy policies.

You are trying way too hard. Your problem in the end, voters blame Biden for high prices of gasoline, food and everything else. Voters blame Biden for the 100% increase in mortgage rates. Good luck convincing them it is Trump's fault they now have to skip meals.

[CJD]

(06-18-2024, 06:40 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: What was inflation around the world from 2017 two 2020? Was it a little over 5% year over year for the combined 4 years. I am sure you want to use the same apples to apples comparison, so you are accurate. 

Did you forget gasoline is not even calculated for inflation? But Biden's energy policies killed gasoline prices and had more to do with change in policy from Trump than a Pandemic. The inflation went crazy because if poor economic energy policies.

You are trying way too hard. Your problem in the end, voters blame Biden for high prices of gasoline, food and everything else. Voters blame Biden for the 100% increase in mortgage rates. Good luck convincing them it is Trump's fault they now have to skip meals.

I am "trying way too hard" relative to you because I've provided sources for things I've said and you are either unable or unwilling to refute them. In addition, you have not yet provided any sources for the things you've said.

I do agree that the problem is voters often blame the president for inflation (or economic struggles in general), even when it is not necessarily his fault. Overall, people attribute way too much to the president, for better or worse, when it comes to the performance of the economy. They have some impact, but nowhere near the impact that the casual voter thinks.

Informing ignorant voters without making them feel ignorant (and thus defensive) is a skill that very few politicians have.