Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[Au165]

Lukashenko slipped up and basically showed a map yesterday pointing to Moldova as the next stop, which I had alluded to earlier in this thread. The plan was never for this to end in Ukraine but with as poorly as it has gone I wonder if they will rethink where they go from here.

[Interceptor]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1498960392848039937

[StrictlyBiz]

(03-02-2022, 10:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Lukashenko slipped up and basically showed a map yesterday pointing to Moldova as the next stop, which I had alluded to earlier in this thread. The plan was never for this to end in Ukraine but with as poorly as it has gone I wonder if they will rethink where they go from here.

Hasn't it been speculated that Putin wants to reunite the old USSR? If so, you have to think that Ukraine and Moldova could be "easy" first steps to gauge NATO's reaction and resolve. If that's true then the next logical steps would be southwest into Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. 
 
I have friends in Armenia and have been monitoring their FB pages. No concerns or fears or even opinions about Russia....yet. Still just a lot of dog pictures and videos. Although, from what I understand, Armenia is heavily allied with Russia. Not sure if they'd welcome occupation though. 

[StrictlyBiz]

(03-02-2022, 10:37 AM)Interceptor Wrote: https://twitter.com/i/status/1498960392848039937

Taking cities is one thing. Holding them is another. Ukraine will bleed the Russians to death with guerrilla warfare, just like the Afghani's did to us and them. 

However, if Russia can circle Kyiv they may be able to starve them out. It will become a game of how many Russians can you kill in a month. 

[Interceptor]

(03-02-2022, 10:45 AM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Taking cities is one thing. Holding them is another. Ukraine will bleed the Russians to death with guerrilla warfare, just like the Afghani's did to us and them. 

However, if Russia can circle Kyiv they may be able to starve them out. It will become a game of how many Russians can you kill in a month. 

Russians are encountering logistical problems. Looks like nobody wants to drive the fuel trucks and food trucks in with the invasion force. What, they are being afraid of becoming a meme just because you drove a blini truck to invade another country?

[samhain]

(03-02-2022, 10:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Lukashenko slipped up and basically showed a map yesterday pointing to Moldova as the next stop, which I had alluded to earlier in this thread. The plan was never for this to end in Ukraine but with as poorly as it has gone I wonder if they will rethink where they go from here.

As others have said, this is probably going to be a slow and painful advance for the Russians.  If they really want Kyiv, they will take it, but it will come at an enormous human and economic cost to them.  

By the time they have established their own proxy government in Ukraine, it will require even more to hold it and holding it will be just as if not more painful than taking it.  When that scenario comes to be, you'd have to think both the Russian citizenry and military leadership will grow pretty exhausted with Putin's desire to forge ahead.  

I don't think Moldova has the same resources available to defend itself as Ukraine does, but if it becomes certain that they are a target, then I think the West will supply them with as much military and economic aid as they have for Ukraine.  

Russia has seemingly tried to avoid urban street to street combat thus far, because they know how taxing it is on soldiers and morale.  They won't be able to do this forever if they want to control major cities long-term.  

My hope is that the Russian people will decide to cut the head off of the snake and depose Putin before it gets even more out of control for all parties involved.  Americans are plenty patriotic and war-hungry, but we also tire quickly of any kind of occupation, even when we are comfortably home enjoying our various comforts.  The Russians won't have it that good.  They'll be enduring major economic hardship and open-ended death to their family members being fed into the military machine for a very long time as this plays out.  I hope they decide they've had enough before things spiral even more out of control.

[Bengalzona]

(03-02-2022, 10:25 AM)Au165 Wrote: Lukashenko slipped up and basically showed a map yesterday pointing to Moldova as the next stop, which I had alluded to earlier in this thread. The plan was never for this to end in Ukraine but with as poorly as it has gone I wonder if they will rethink where they go from here.

Moldova already has a Moscow-friendly government. They are currently allowing Russian troops there and a new front may be opened from there if the war goes too long for Putin

[samhain]

(03-02-2022, 11:37 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Moldova already has a Moscow-friendly government. They are currently allowing Russian troops there and a new front may be opened from there if the war goes too long for Putin

Well, that sucks.

[CKwi88]

(03-02-2022, 11:37 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Moldova already has a Moscow-friendly government. They are currently allowing Russian troops there and a new front may be opened from there if the war goes too long for Putin

Not sure I'd equate Transnistria's Moscow position with Moldova as a whole. Moldova does seem like a likely next target as Russia has largely followed the same playbook as Ukraine: back separatists and then use that as an excuse for a larger offensive. 

[Au165]

(03-02-2022, 11:37 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Moldova already has a Moscow-friendly government. They are currently allowing Russian troops there and a new front may be opened from there if the war goes too long for Putin

They are actually very similar to Ukraine, the government isn't Russian friendly but they have a section that is Russian "friendly" (Tiraspol) that Russia would love to use the same pretext to invade that they did in Ukraine. 

[Bengalzona]

(03-02-2022, 11:46 AM)samhain Wrote: Well, that sucks.

(03-02-2022, 11:55 AM)CKwi88 Wrote: Not sure I'd equate Transnistria's Moscow position with Moldova as a whole. Moldova does seem like a likely next target as Russia has largely followed the same playbook as Ukraine: back separatists and then use that as an excuse for a larger offensive. 

(03-02-2022, 12:03 PM)Au165 Wrote: They are actually very similar to Ukraine, the government isn't Russian friendly but they have a section that is Russian "friendly" (Tiraspol) that Russia would love to use the same pretext to invade that they did in Ukraine. 

I stand corrected. CKwi88 and AU165 are correct. Transnistria has a separatist movement which has allowed Russian troops to enter there.

[Rotobeast]

Ughh...

The deal to receive fighter jets has collapsed.

No Fighter Jets for Ukraine, yet.

[Au165]

Allegedly invasion plans were captured by the Ukrainian’s, in them the plan says the whole thing was supposed to take 15 days…it appears Russia really was delusional after all.

[BFritz21]

My friend from Lithuania is posting all kinds of support for Ukraine and hate for Russia.

Hard to believe things like this are still happening..........

[basballguy]

https://www.gamepur.com/news/cd-projekt-red-suspends-sales-of-its-games-and-all-titles-on-gog-in-russia-and-belarus-in-support-of-ukraine

So here we have a software company suspending sales in Russia. In the grand scheme of things no big deal but this highlights something that bugs me.

I’m willing to bet a lot of people playing these games are kids..why punish them? The knee jerk reaction is to say “well it’s putins fault” and while it is…is it really worth it?

My extreme example would be Afghanistan. Do we think the citizens blamed the Taliban for all the havoc they incurred?

All these over the top sanctions that are crippling an entire country just doesn’t seem worth the collateral damage it can cause.

And no, I don’t have any better ideas.

[*michaelsean*]

(03-02-2022, 10:45 AM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Taking cities is one thing. Holding them is another. Ukraine will bleed the Russians to death with guerrilla warfare, just like the Afghani's did to us and them. 

However, if Russia can circle Kyiv they may be able to starve them out. It will become a game of how many Russians can you kill in a month. 

It's a lot like reservations.

[Belsnickel]

(03-03-2022, 12:25 PM)basballguy Wrote: https://www.gamepur.com/news/cd-projekt-red-suspends-sales-of-its-games-and-all-titles-on-gog-in-russia-and-belarus-in-support-of-ukraine

So here we have a software company suspending sales in Russia. In the grand scheme of things no big deal but this highlights something that bugs me.

I’m willing to bet a lot of people playing these games are kids..why punish them? The knee jerk reaction is to say “well it’s putins fault” and while it is…is it really worth it?

My extreme example would be Afghanistan. Do we think the citizens blamed the Taliban for all the havoc they incurred?

All these over the top sanctions that are crippling an entire country just doesn’t seem worth the collateral damage it can cause.

And no, I don’t have any better ideas.

I think the effectiveness of these sanctions is dependent on the country. Because of the propaganda machine in Russia, the people are not going to see this as the government being punished for doing wrong. They also don't have a real mechanism to do anything about it. Russia is only nominally democratic and they are oppressive of free speech beyond just about any western nation and even if there were avenues to do something, the majority of the country has been fed this propaganda for so long that they believe Russia is still in the right on this. Meaning, of course, that the sanctions are seen as attacks on Russia and not a justified retaliation.

[basballguy]

(03-03-2022, 01:18 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I think the effectiveness of these sanctions is dependent on the country. Because of the propaganda machine in Russia, the people are not going to see this as the government being punished for doing wrong. They also don't have a real mechanism to do anything about it. Russia is only nominally democratic and they are oppressive of free speech beyond just about any western nation and even if there were avenues to do something, the majority of the country has been fed this propaganda for so long that they believe Russia is still in the right on this. Meaning, of course, that the sanctions are seen as attacks on Russia and not a justified retaliation.

Right...and so these sanctions will legitimately ruin lives...and those lives ruined will only blame the west.  We're going to breed another generation of western hatred in another country....for what?  

Again I don't have any better ideas but I feel like we should know better by now.  

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

So don't boycott them because their government will spin it as our fault. You are right. You don't have better ideas.

People are having their homes destroyed. Most of these homes had video games. Maybe show some concern for them?

[Benton]

(03-03-2022, 01:30 PM)basballguy Wrote: Right...and so these sanctions will legitimately ruin lives...and those lives ruined will only blame the west.  We're going to breed another generation of western hatred in another country....for what?  

Again I don't have any better ideas but I feel like we should know better by now.  

I think that was the failing of 40 years ago now. But even in counties where information is controlled, word gets out differently now. The internet and access to it was difficult to control, even for some place like Russia. 

I think more people will come to question their country's actions or inactions now in a way that hasn't been seen before.

Used to, that only happened here because of freedom of the press. Now, the internet brings a lot of free information (some of admittedly false) to people who didn't have access before.