So Trump?

[Sovereign Nation]

As everyone should know, I have anarchist tendencies. I find it laughable that we vote for a "leader".

However, Trump, against all predictions is just steamrolling through the primaries.

The only "loss" was to Cruz in Iowa and there is some controversy surrounding Cruz's victory.

So far he has won in NH, SC (yes, I voted for him) and now NV.

Against either Democratic candidate, he looks for superior. Sanders looks like a joke, making promises that he has no way of following through on, even if he was telling the truth and Clinton is a criminal and should be locked up and not even eligible to run for president.

So does Trump continue to steam roll through this election and win? Even against all currently held beliefs? Are we as a country just that racist?

[Belsnickel]

He won't be able to win the general election. He can win the nomination for the GOP because of the large field splitting things out so much, but there are more people in the GOP, and the country, that dislike him than like him. That being said, the third party/independent candidates will make the general interesting because I can see a lot of GOP types going that route instead of voting for Trump.

[Sovereign Nation]

(02-24-2016, 09:54 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: He won't be able to win the general election. He can win the nomination for the GOP because of the large field splitting things out so much, but there are more people in the GOP, and the country, that dislike him than like him. That being said, the third party/independent candidates will make the general interesting because I can see a lot of GOP types going that route instead of voting for Trump.

Can't disagree at all.  

[Benton]

Pretty much what Matt said. If a couple of the GOP candidates dropped out, you'd see Rubio or Cruz surge. There wasn't much of an impact when Paul dropped out because his support was low and they split pretty well between the fringe (Trump) and conservatives (Rubio/Carson). His supporters weren't going to push anyone forward. But Bush dropping out should push more into Cruz's RINO camp. Rubio is scrambling for the endorsement, but I'm not sure if it will be enough to lure his folks over.

Cruz and Rubio are going to butt heads and keep Trump in the game. But unless one of them drops out and heavily endorses Trump, there's no way he gets the nomination.

And if he runs third party, that pretty well locks up a Democrat president. His following would be enough to split the party vote and the Dem party voters would vote for a potato.

[Sovereign Nation]

(02-24-2016, 11:27 AM)Benton Wrote: Pretty much what Matt said. If a couple of the GOP candidates dropped out, you'd see Rubio or Cruz surge. There wasn't much of an impact when Paul dropped out because his support was low and they split pretty well between the fringe (Trump) and conservatives (Rubio/Carson). His supporters weren't going to push anyone forward. But Bush dropping out should push more into Cruz's RINO camp. Rubio is scrambling for the endorsement, but I'm not sure if it will be enough to lure his folks over.

Cruz and Rubio are going to butt heads and keep Trump in the game. But unless one of them drops out and heavily endorses Trump, there's no way he gets the nomination.

And if he runs third party, that pretty well locks up a Democrat president. His following would be enough to split the party vote and the Dem party voters would vote for a potato.

Sorry to say, but this is false.  Trump is dominating the polls.

He has lead by double digits in NH, SC and even NV.

Again Iowa is the lone loss, and that had Cruz using deceit to garner the needed people.  Trump didn't lose by double digits.  Like Cruz and Rubio has.

Now as to 3rd party.  Sure, I can see the party, not embracing Trump.  However I think if Trump is forced to 3rd party, that will just lead to more people wondering WHY?  Why isn't Trump the nominee when he has done so well in the primaries?

[*bfine32*]

Folks have been discounting Trump from the moment he threw his hat in the ring. He has proved them all to be wrong (he was supposed to be out by Iowa). Something drastic is going to have to change for him not to get the RNC nod. He is not my first choice; however, if it come down to him and Shady Clinton in the General Election, it will be hard not to push the button for Trump.

I do not think I'm alone as a Rebuplican in the train of thought. Also a disgruntled general population longs for change.  

[Sovereign Nation]

(02-24-2016, 11:40 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Folks have been discounting Trump from the moment he threw his hat in the ring. He has proved them all to be wrong (he was supposed to be out by Iowa). Something drastic is going to have to change for him not to get the RNC nod. He is not my first choice; however, if it come down to him and Shady Clinton in the General Election, it will be hard not to push the button for Trump.

I do not think I'm alone as a Rebuplican in the train of thought. Also a disgruntled general population longs for change.  

As a person that leads toward anarchistic, I don't think for a moment that Trump will actually do anything that he claims that he will do.

However, I do like how he plans to handle immigration.  Not a complete shut down, but I agree with the premise that we don't need another Manny the Gardener, but if we can get Manuel the Brain Surgeon?  YES.

I will vote for Trump so far, but I am so jaded, Obama was supposed to bring Hope and Change, so I don't hold out any belief that Trump will do anything.

Consider me an apathetic voter.  One that isn't even sure if he will be an American in 5 years.

[BmorePat87]

(02-24-2016, 11:34 AM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: Sorry to say, but this is false.  Trump is dominating the polls.

He has lead by double digits in NH, SC and even NV.

Again Iowa is the lone loss, and that had Cruz using deceit to garner the needed people.  Trump didn't lose by double digits.  Like Cruz and Rubio has.

Now as to 3rd party.  Sure, I can see the party, not embracing Trump.  However I think if Trump is forced to 3rd party, that will just lead to more people wondering WHY?  Why isn't Trump the nominee when he has done so well in the primaries?

It's not false. Trump has struggled to pass his 30-35% ceiling in national polls among all GOP candidates. As candidates have dropped out, we have seen Cruz and Rubio rise in the polls while Trump has stayed the same. Trump is still winning as there are enough candidates to split the remaining 60-65% of Republicans, but if Kasich dropped out and either Cruz or Rubio, the remaining candidate would be well pass 40-45%. 

Trump is benefiting from the fact that the GOP field is stubborn and their egos prevent them from getting behind one candidate. He turns off too many Republicans to ever get above 51% of their support. As Matt said, Republicans will opt for a 3rd party or stay home in November. He had a 35% unfavorable rating with the GOP in January (only Bush was higher). In the latest Ohio poll, he scored the highest on GOP candidates you would definitely not support with 32% of GOP voters saying they wouldn't back him if he won the nomination. 

So has he done well is the sense that he has won 3 of 4? Sure. Has he done well in the sense that he has garnered a majority of Republican's support? No. 

[McC]

(02-24-2016, 11:56 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: It's not false. Trump has struggled to pass his 30-35% ceiling in national polls among all GOP candidates. As candidates have dropped out, we have seen Cruz and Rubio rise in the polls while Trump has stayed the same. Trump is still winning as there are enough candidates to split the remaining 60-65% of Republicans, but if Kasich dropped out and either Cruz or Rubio, the remaining candidate would be well pass 40-45%. 

Trump is benefiting from the fact that the GOP field is stubborn and their egos prevent them from getting behind one candidate. He turns off too many Republicans to ever get above 51% of their support. As Matt said, Republicans will opt for a 3rd party or stay home in November. He had a 35% unfavorable rating with the GOP in January (only Bush was higher). In the latest Ohio poll, he scored the highest on GOP candidates you would definitely not support with 32% of GOP voters saying they wouldn't back him if he won the nomination. 

So has he done well is the sense that he has won 3 of 4? Sure. Has he done well in the sense that he has garnered a majority of Republican's support? No. 

How can Cruz even be President?  He's Canadian.  Don't you still have to be born an American to even qualify?

No more Texans in the White House, please.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(02-24-2016, 09:54 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: He won't be able to win the general election. He can win the nomination for the GOP because of the large field splitting things out so much, but there are more people in the GOP, and the country, that dislike him than like him. That being said, the third party/independent candidates will make the general interesting because I can see a lot of GOP types going that route instead of voting for Trump.

Not that long ago I'd be in agreement with you.  Now I'm not so sure.  Polling over hypothetical match ups are never that reliable.  Once the match up becomes a reality and people are faced with the actual choice those opinions tend to change.  I think Trump/Sanders is a major win for Trump and I'm starting to think that Trump/Clinton will be very close.  Look at swing states alone.  I can see Trump's message playing well in Ohio and I can absolutely see him winning Florida as well.  People tend to think Hispanics won't vote for Trump but Cubans tend to vote conservative and, I realize I'm generalizing, they don't really identify with other Hispanics and generally wouldn't mind seeing illegals deported.  As someone who grew up in CA I can absolutely tell you that there is a huge amount of animosity between Hispanics of different national origin.  I believe I told you guys about the Puerto Rican girl I dated who would be furious if people thought she was Mexican.

So, give Trump Ohio and Florida and he absolutely has a path towards an EC victory.  Again, I didn't think this possible just a month or two ago, I see it becoming progressively (no pun intended) likely though.

[Sovereign Nation]

(02-24-2016, 12:02 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Not that long ago I'd be in agreement with you.  Now I'm not so sure.  Polling over hypothetical match ups are never that reliable.  Once the match up becomes a reality and people are faced with the actual choice those opinions tend to change.  I think Trump/Sanders is a major win for Trump and I'm starting to think that Trump/Clinton will be very close.  Look at swing states alone.  I can see Trump's message playing well in Ohio and I can absolutely see him winning Florida as well.  People tend to think Hispanics won't vote for Trump but Cubans tend to vote conservative and, I realize I'm generalizing, they don't really identify with other Hispanics and generally wouldn't mind seeing illegals deported.  As someone who grew up in CA I can absolutely tell you that there is a huge amount of animosity between Hispanics of different national origin.  I believe I told you guys about the Puerto Rican girl I dated who would be furious if people thought she was Mexican.

So, give Trump Ohio and Florida and he absolutely has a path towards an EC victory.  Again, I didn't think this possible just a month or two ago, I see it becoming progressively (no pun intended) likely though.

Hey SSF, it is me Cincy's Best!  I chose this name based off of your view of me.  Anyway.  LOVE ya!  (I know you don't return the sentiment.)

[*michaelsean*]

Trump versus Clinton could be a boon for third party. I can see people from both sides fleeing to an alternate choice.

[*michaelsean*]

(02-24-2016, 12:02 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Not that long ago I'd be in agreement with you.  Now I'm not so sure.  Polling over hypothetical match ups are never that reliable.  Once the match up becomes a reality and people are faced with the actual choice those opinions tend to change.  I think Trump/Sanders is a major win for Trump and I'm starting to think that Trump/Clinton will be very close.  Look at swing states alone.  I can see Trump's message playing well in Ohio and I can absolutely see him winning Florida as well.  People tend to think Hispanics won't vote for Trump but Cubans tend to vote conservative and, I realize I'm generalizing, they don't really identify with other Hispanics and generally wouldn't mind seeing illegals deported.  As someone who grew up in CA I can absolutely tell you that there is a huge amount of animosity between Hispanics of different national origin.  I believe I told you guys about the Puerto Rican girl I dated who would be furious if people thought she was Mexican.

So, give Trump Ohio and Florida and he absolutely has a path towards an EC victory.  Again, I didn't think this possible just a month or two ago, I see it becoming progressively (no pun intended) likely though.

I get it.  Someone asked me if I was a Canadian once.  Once.

[*bfine32*]

(02-24-2016, 11:56 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: It's not false. Trump has struggled to pass his 30-35% ceiling in national polls among all GOP candidates. As candidates have dropped out, we have seen Cruz and Rubio rise in the polls while Trump has stayed the same. Trump is still winning as there are enough candidates to split the remaining 60-65% of Republicans, but if Kasich dropped out and either Cruz or Rubio, the remaining candidate would be well pass 40-45%. 

Trump is benefiting from the fact that the GOP field is stubborn and their egos prevent them from getting behind one candidate. He turns off too many Republicans to ever get above 51% of their support. As Matt said, Republicans will opt for a 3rd party or stay home in November. He had a 35% unfavorable rating with the GOP in January (only Bush was higher). In the latest Ohio poll, he scored the highest on GOP candidates you would definitely not support with 32% of GOP voters saying they wouldn't back him if he won the nomination. 

So has he done well is the sense that he has won 3 of 4? Sure. Has he done well in the sense that he has garnered a majority of Republican's support? No. 

Trump just got 46% of the vote in Neveda. This was more than Cruz and Rubio combined. if something drastic doesn't happen by Tuesday you can pretty much write Trump in for the GOP nod.

Regardless of what polls say; Republicans will not stay at home and give the White House to Clinton because they don't like Trump. They are smart enough to realize that a president goes the way of his/her cabinet.  

[Belsnickel]

(02-24-2016, 12:41 PM)michaelsean Wrote: I get it.  Someone asked me if I was a Canadian once.  Once.

Did you show them you weren't nice enough to be Canadian?

"Excuse me, eh! Didn't mean to be in your way like that! Have a Timbit!"

[Benton]

(02-24-2016, 11:34 AM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: Sorry to say, but this is false.  Trump is dominating the polls.

He has lead by double digits in NH, SC and even NV.

Again Iowa is the lone loss, and that had Cruz using deceit to garner the needed people.  Trump didn't lose by double digits.  Like Cruz and Rubio has.

Now as to 3rd party.  Sure, I can see the party, not embracing Trump.  However I think if Trump is forced to 3rd party, that will just lead to more people wondering WHY?  Why isn't Trump the nominee when he has done so well in the primaries?

Well, no.

Trump's number is leading because his base doesn't change much. 30-40%. That leaves 60-70% voting for [other]. And that's divided between four(ish) establishment candidates. That 60-70% is going to vote for whichever of those candidates isn't named Trump.

As I said, if Cruz and Rubio stop butting heads (doesn't look like they will) or enough of the supporters for the other camps move to one of those two (which is starting to happen now that Jeb's out), you'll see one of the two establishment guys picking up more delegates. Right now Cruz and Rubio are brokering for who that's going to be, and who is going to get the push.

The only way I see it working out for Trump is if the party can't convince Rubio or Cruz to take a back seat before Super Tuesday. Leap Day could make a big difference this year.

As to the third party, it's like the first part of the post. He's doing well because he's one of several. It's not like the Dem race where it's the lesser of two evils, for GOP voters it's '6-of-1, half dozen of another.' Same thing, more or less, happened with Ross Perot. There's always going to be a fringe segment that enjoy being different and supporting a candidate that's seen as an outsider, regardless of how well his policies match up to their interests. Trump is right, many of his supporters would still vote for him if he shot somebody. Why? Because they don't care about the man or his actions, they care about how they perceive their individuality. It's not about Trump, it's about them.

[fredtoast]

So far Trump has nto been able to garner even 40% of one party that accounts for a third of the general population. And even among his own party there are more people who hate him than like him. There is no way in hell he wins a general election. Americans are not all politcally savvy, but they are not dumb enough to elect Trump.

SN just wants him elected because he is dreaming of an all white united states with black people returned to their subservient position and separated from white people so that white people can be safe.

[*bfine32*]

(02-24-2016, 12:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: SN just wants him elected because he is dreaming of an all white united states with black people returned to their subservient position and separated from white people so that white people can be safe.

For anyone wondering what has happened to this forum.

[SteelCitySouth]

(02-24-2016, 12:01 PM)McC Wrote: How can Cruz even be President?  He's Canadian.  Don't you still have to be born an American to even qualify?

No more Texans in the White House, please.

One of Cruz' parents (mother I think) is a naturally born citizen of the US.  Also McCain was not born in the US.  There is an constant argument as to what the constitution means in regards to qualification to be a president.  It seems to me that thus far it has only been used to disqualify a first generation migrant.

[Benton]

(02-24-2016, 12:02 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote:  Once the match up becomes a reality and people are faced with the actual choice those opinions tend to change.  I think Trump/Sanders is a major win for Trump and I'm starting to think that Trump/Clinton will be very close. 

I don't see that happening. Even Harry Reid could defeat Trump in a national election.