Tee Higgins, down the road in '24?

[SunsetBengal]

(11-16-2023, 12:55 AM)J24 Wrote: Reader will get payed this off season. Nose Tackles that can rush the passer do not grow on trees. The Bengals could consider trading Trey( would save 12.3 million against the cap; would have 7.8 in dead money though) to free up room to sign Reader.

Why would they do that?  Hendrickson is a bargain for what he brings to the table, and the team just rewarded him with a contract extension this year. Besides, who would make up for his lost production?  I do believe that Reader gets re-signed, but not at the expense of cutting one of the team's most valuable assets.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(11-15-2023, 04:51 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: That would be the best way to go if Jonah did stick around.

Agree with Synric as usual as well, Reader will be our must have extension this Offseason. He is still playing damn good even if 
others around him aren't, BJ is playing good, but nonexistent it seems play from Carter, Tupou and Ossai and Murphy of the Ends.

I do like Cam Sample to stick around hopefully when his time for an extension comes. He is young and seems to be growing into 
his own before our very eyes.

I'd be shocked if they re-sign Reader. He signed here when the Bengals were crap because they were the highest bidder. If he isn't tagged, he's cashing in elsewhere.

Chase is the one that I'm worried about. His comment to CTB after an INT "Get paid, boy" . . . I have a feeling it will get ugly and might involve a couple of Franchise tags.

[reuben.ahmed]

so if we KNOW we're going to lose him, we must think we're going to win the superbowl this year or next year because they didn't accept any trade offers?

who knows how a tagged tee plays in that year

[J24]

(11-16-2023, 08:47 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Why would they do that?  Hendrickson is a bargain for what he brings to the table, and the team just rewarded him with a contract extension this year. Besides, who would make up for his lost production?  I do believe that Reader gets re-signed, but not at the expense of cutting one of the team's most valuable assets.

We're better prepared for losing Hendrickson than we are for losing Reader. (Granted losing either of the two is like picking what you rather have up your ass, A pineapple or a grapefruit? Either way it's going to be a pain in the ass!)

We just drafted a first RD pick in Murphy and have two talented youmg players behind Trey in Ossai and Sample. 

Also, Reader will probably be way more expensive than people(thinking  in the 18 million to 20 million dollar range per year) think, and we have no one under contract that can replace his snaps on the roster next season. 

Ideally I would like to keep both along with adding a top 3T in FA  but that's just unrealistic. One of the two will  have to go for cap reasons. The question  then becomes. Would we rather have Reader + a 2nd RD pick next season or Trey this upcoming season?

Now if Trey doesn't have that robust of a trade market then  I would keep Trey over Reader!

[SunsetBengal]

(11-16-2023, 11:03 AM)J24 Wrote: We're better prepared for losing Hendrickson than we are for losing Reader. (Granted losing either of the two is like picking what you rather have up your ass, A pineapple or a grapefruit? Either way it's going to be a pain in the ass!)

We just drafted a first RD pick in Murphy and have two talented youmg players behind Trey in Ossai and Sample. 

Also, Reader will probably be way more expensive than people(thinking  in the 18 million to 20 million dollar range per year) think, and we have no one under contract that can replace his snaps on the roster next season. 

Ideally I would like to keep both along with adding a top 3T in FA  but that's just unrealistic. One of the two will  have to go for cap reasons. The question  then becomes. Would we rather have Reader + a 2nd RD pick next season or Trey this upcoming season?

Now if Trey doesn't have that robust of a trade market then  I would keep Trey over Reader!

Out of those 3, the only one that could possibly hold up to extended playing time right now is Sample.  Those others have already shown that they can't cover for Hubbard, let alone Hendrickson.  So I'm not sure that the Bengals are 'prepared' to be losing any starters on the DL, let alone their only elite level sack and pressure producer.

[Garrus]

I really like Higgins, but Chase is better, and also Higgins is a bit injury prone thus far in his career. Obviously, that doesn't mean it will continue to be an issue, but he misses too many games to be given that much money imo.

[*Synric*]

(11-15-2023, 11:25 PM)Whatever Wrote: I don't know that the feeling around the league is that Tee is worth a 1st, especially with the year he's having.  He's not a proven WR1, has had a lot of different injuries, disappears whenever Burrow is out or not his normal self, and is tracking to have a pretty terrible year.  He's currently not even the top WR in FA to me, as I have Evans and Pittman higher.  Plus it's a strong FA WR class, as well.

We know the two sides didn't get close on a deal, so we have to assume that setting a $22-23 million APY floor for another round of negotiations will go nowhere.  That's a ton of cap dollars for a one year rental on a WR2 that could be put towards an elite FA at another position.  If the Giants are giving up their 2nd for a WR, it's to move up and get Harrison.  They already got burned on an injury prone pseudo WR1 in Golladay.  We know Carolina came calling, but we don't know the offer and they've given up so much draft capital for this year and next that I doubt they'll be giving up a 2nd and 4th, especially without seeing who falls.  It's highly likely that you tie up a huge chunk of cap dollars and hamstring yourself in FA just to hope someone panics on draft day.

I wanna unpack some stuff here.

I mentioned the Giants because I expect them to go QB if they end up with one of the top 2 picks. We can argue about the Daniel Jones signing but I mean its Daniel Jones... The Panthers and Giants would be teaming up a young veteran receiver with a young QB.

Ok as for waiting in the draft These are the WR's taken since 2020 draft first 2 rounds (Not including Top 10 Picks or 2023)

2020
1st Round
Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk
2nd Round
Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr, Laviska Shenualt, KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims

2021
1st Round
Kadarius Toney, Rashod Batman
2nd Round 
Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Dwayne Eskridege, Tutu Atwell, Terrance Marshall

2022
1st Round
Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks
2nd Round
Christian Watson, Wan'dale Robinson, John Metchie, Tyquan Thorton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore



That list doesn't expire alot of confidence when saying hey we need a high quality WR especially if you are looking specifically late first into the second round. Tee Higgins is a proven NFL WR with 50+ games of NFL tape. He is definitely worth low first round value.   (The whole easy to replace Tee crowd is wrong too lol.)

[Knightmare on Elm Street]

When was the last time the Bengals did a tag and trade? I highly doubt we do that, probably let Tee play on the 2024 tag and say goodbye in 2025. I still hold out hope for a Tee extension because we have money to play with this upcoming offseason and we don't have any "stars" that need to get paid soon outside of Chase. Burrow, Wilson, Pratt and Trey are taken care of, Brown Jr is locked up as well. I know many may say Reader, but at this juncture is he really going to break the bank. Plus with the way the team has structured deals recently, that gives me a small glimmer of hope for a Tee deal. Small glimmer, but glimmer nonetheless.

[The D.O.Z.]

(11-16-2023, 12:55 AM)J24 Wrote: Reader will get payed this off season. Nose Tackles that can rush the passer do not grow on trees. The Bengals could consider trading Trey( would save 12.3 million against the cap; would have 7.8 in dead money though) to free up room to sign Reader.

And who will rush the passer then? Trey is our only consistent pass rusher, he's a guy you build around, not trade off or cut. Our pass rush outside of him is spotty at best.

[casear2727]

(11-15-2023, 04:01 PM)Synric Wrote: Remember to tag and trade Tee you have first to get his 22.9m tag under the cap while finding a trade. After the trade the Bengals are responsible for half the tag salary of 11.5m dead cap.

Why would we have dead cap?   Never heard of this? 

[The D.O.Z.]

(11-16-2023, 08:47 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Why would they do that?  Hendrickson is a bargain for what he brings to the table, and the team just rewarded him with a contract extension this year. Besides, who would make up for his lost production?  I do believe that Reader gets re-signed, but not at the expense of cutting one of the team's most valuable assets.

Absolutely!

[*Synric*]

(11-15-2023, 09:41 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Why?  There is no signing bonus attached to the tag as it's pure salary.  The new team would be paying all of his salary.  There's no dead money involved.

(11-16-2023, 01:33 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Why would we have dead cap?   Never heard of this? 

You guys are right on this. I remembered Texans paid half of Clowney's salary in a tag and trade and thought it was a part of it but the Texans just had to pay half to get a trade done lol. 

[CJD]

I don't know who we will franchise tag this off season, but I'd be shocked if we don't franchise tag someone, between Reader, Higgins and Williams.

At the moment, none of the three have a suitable replacement on the roster. Reader's back up is Tupou (who is also a free agent), Higgins back up is Iosivas, a 6th round rookie who has 3 career catches, and Williams back up is...Jesus...Cody Ford (free agent in 2024) or Jackson Carman.

I'm leaning towards Higgins, because Chase will still be on his rookie contract through 2025, so we could tag Higgins and still keep the overall WR room cost fairly low.

If we don't tag Higgins, then I think WR is our #1 need in the off season. Which is good, because this is a great draft for WRs. Which can be said each season, it seems, but still. Replacing Higgins with Nabers, Odunze, Egbuka, Worthy or Coleman could keep our offense running at a high level for the next 5 years pretty easily.

Honestly, that may be the biggest argument for tagging Williams. We are absolutely TERRIBLE at drafting offensive linemen, whereas we're pretty incredible at drafting WRs. With Williams actually playing pretty well at RT, we may not be willing to let go of that just to roll the dice in the draft.

[Whatever]

(11-16-2023, 11:34 AM)Synric Wrote: I wanna unpack some stuff here.

I mentioned the Giants because I expect them to go QB if they end up with one of the top 2 picks. We can argue about the Daniel Jones signing but I mean its Daniel Jones... The Panthers and Giants would be teaming up a young veteran receiver with a young QB.

Ok as for waiting in the draft These are the WR's taken since 2020 draft first 2 rounds (Not including Top 10 Picks or 2023)

2020
1st Round
Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk
2nd Round
Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr, Laviska Shenualt, KJ Hamler, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Denzel Mims

2021
1st Round
Kadarius Toney, Rashod Batman
2nd Round 
Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Dwayne Eskridege, Tutu Atwell, Terrance Marshall

2022
1st Round
Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks
2nd Round
Christian Watson, Wan'dale Robinson, John Metchie, Tyquan Thorton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore



That list doesn't expire alot of confidence when saying hey we need a high quality WR especially if you are looking specifically late first into the second round. Tee Higgins is a proven NFL WR with 50+ games of NFL tape. He is definitely worth low first round value.   (The whole easy to replace Tee crowd is wrong too lol.)

The math doesn't work in your Giants scenario.  They have $38 mil in cap space next year and would eat $69 mil in dead money vs a $36 mil cap savings in the form of salary.  Even if there was a QB they were in love with and they decided to dump Jones, they would put themselves in a full rebuild and wouldn't have cap space for a $22 mil APY deal for Higgins(not to mention Saquon is also set to hit UFA).  Plus, it's a terrible year to try and move a C tier starting QB like Jones with Cousins and Tannehill set to hit the market.  

I have a hard time believing Carolina will part with 33 and a 4th to sign Higgins to a monster deal when they just traded away DJ Moore.  This will be the second of three straight years where they will be short on picks and a ton of offers always come rolling in for that pick.  I really see them trading down out of that spot.  How desperate can they really be with Thielen on pace for 1000 yards?

The problem with tag and trade scenarios is you have to apply the tag before FA shakes out.  There's nothing that stops any hypothetical trade partner for Higgins from going out and getting a WR in FA.  You also don't know what else will transpire.  Will Atwell's performance with the Rams cause Cooper Kupp to become available for trade?  Will the Vikings blow it all up and try to move Jefferson after negotiations go bad?

$23 million is a lot to tie up in a player you have no desire to resign in the hopes that you can work out a trade.  For us, interior pass rush is a need.  The tag can be the difference between making a run at Chris Jones or not.  You could definitely re-up Reader with that money and then some.  You could resign Jonah and get an upgrade over Scott at S.  

Problem is, no NFL GM(or draftnik, for that matter), makes a pick assuming a guy won't live up to his draft position.  That's a big reason draft picks are so valuable.

[*Synric*]

(11-16-2023, 01:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: The math doesn't work in your Giants scenario.  They have $38 mil in cap space next year and would eat $69 mil in dead money vs a $36 mil cap savings in the form of salary.  Even if there was a QB they were in love with and they decided to dump Jones, they would put themselves in a full rebuild and wouldn't have cap space for a $22 mil APY deal for Higgins(not to mention Saquon is also set to hit UFA).  Plus, it's a terrible year to try and move a C tier starting QB like Jones with Cousins and Tannehill set to hit the market.  

I have a hard time believing Carolina will part with 33 and a 4th to sign Higgins to a monster deal when they just traded away DJ Moore.  This will be the second of three straight years where they will be short on picks and a ton of offers always come rolling in for that pick.  I really see them trading down out of that spot.  How desperate can they really be with Thielen on pace for 1000 yards?

The problem with tag and trade scenarios is you have to apply the tag before FA shakes out.  There's nothing that stops any hypothetical trade partner for Higgins from going out and getting a WR in FA.  You also don't know what else will transpire.  Will Atwell's performance with the Rams cause Cooper Kupp to become available for trade?  Will the Vikings blow it all up and try to move Jefferson after negotiations go bad?

$23 million is a lot to tie up in a player you have no desire to resign in the hopes that you can work out a trade.  For us, interior pass rush is a need.  The tag can be the difference between making a run at Chris Jones or not.  You could definitely re-up Reader with that money and then some.  You could resign Jonah and get an upgrade over Scott at S.  

Problem is, no NFL GM(or draftnik, for that matter), makes a pick assuming a guy won't live up to his draft position.  That's a big reason draft picks are so valuable.

Have to agree to disagree.

Daniel Jones can be traded for a 11mil dead cap after June 1st or they can let the rookie sit behind him a year and cut him as a post June 1st cut in 2025. His trade value mid season in 2024 could be high. This year it would have been. 

As for Carolina I believe getting a young proven NFL vet for the same pick you are going to likely use a pick on a WR even if you are giving up an extra day 3 pick is definitely worth it. I would even go so far as adding a 2025 5th rounder that could be a conditional 3rd if Tee plays 80% of the snaps has 1100 yards and 8 TDs. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-16-2023, 09:06 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I'd be shocked if they re-sign Reader. He signed here when the Bengals were crap because they were the highest bidder. If he isn't tagged, he's cashing in elsewhere.

Chase is the one that I'm worried about. His comment to CTB after an INT "Get paid, boy" . . . I have a feeling it will get ugly and might involve a couple of Franchise tags.

I would be shocked if they didn't re-sign Reader. We didn't draft a Nose Tackle last Draft to be his future replacement, we don't have
his replacement on the roster or even close to it. Tupou is also on the last year of his contract and has played pretty poorly this year.

If we weren't planning on extending Reader, it would be a monumental mistake. Dude is a great run stopper and an underrated pass
rusher. Think our Defense is bad now? Try it without the big guy slowing the run down...

I don't know what Chase's comment has to do with anything, CTB is only in his 2nd season. Chase WILL be extended no question and
I believe Reader will as well and these are the right moves while adding a RT in Free Agency when Jonah leaves.

[Whatever]

(11-16-2023, 02:14 PM)Synric Wrote: Have to agree to disagree.

Daniel Jones can be traded for a 11mil dead cap after June 1st or they can let the rookie sit behind him a year and cut him as a post June 1st cut in 2025. His trade value mid season in 2024 could be high. This year it would have been. 

As for Carolina I believe getting a young proven NFL vet for the same pick you are going to likely use a pick on a WR even if you are giving up an extra day 3 pick is definitely worth it. I would even go so far as adding a 2025 5th rounder that could be a conditional 3rd if Tee plays 80% of the snaps has 1100 yards and 8 TDs. 

Jones can't be realistically moved until '25.  I'm not sure where you're getting he can be traded after June 1st in 2024 for only $11 mil.  Even if they're set on drafting a QB and having him sit a year behind Jones, they're still probably going to have to use that 2nd to move up and make sure they get their guy, anyways.  If they're sitting a QB behind Jones, they're writing off the season as a rebuild, so there's no reason to trade for a vet WR.  

If Carolina winds up with the 33rd pick, they are 95% trading down unless there is a guy they absolutely love there.  Beyond that, if they keep the pick and spend it on a WR, they are still $20+ mil in cap room ahead of the game and have all their picks.  They don't have a 2nd in 2025 and they're going to trade potentially their 3rd along with# 33 and a 4th for Higgins?  They have a roster with holes all over and aren't even close to contending.