The New NAFTA

[Benton]

(10-03-2018, 07:19 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Econ 101 is telling me if our dairy is being shipped out that lowers the supply and increases the demand...

So my next vehicle will be more expensive and my milk and cheese?

According to the National Farmers Organization, milk prices have fallen 50 percent in the last four years. And given that Wisconsin has more dairy cows than all of Canada, this isn't going to have much impact on the over supply. It will be a .3 percent increase in exports, mostly in powdered milk (we would export 3.5 percent of Canada's total milk consumption under this deal, up from the current 3.2 percent).

The .3 percent more will be more than lost in the China tariffs on lactose and casein. China was the highest importer of US dairy after Canada and Mexico.

So, don't worry, your cheese will probably be the same price. Dairy farmers are unhappy, though, but their issue is having too much white stuff and not enough domestic consumption.

[*bfine32*]

(10-03-2018, 07:19 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Econ 101 is telling me if our dairy is being shipped out that lowers the supply and increases the demand...

So my next vehicle will be more expensive and my milk and cheese?

Would that be Micro or Macro Eon 101

[Dill]

(10-03-2018, 12:00 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: There are some minor improvements, and Trump deserves credit for that, but as someone who called NAFTA"the worst approved trade deal, maybe ever" this is pretty underwhelming.

But hey, US comes first in the name, campaign promise fulfilled, #MAGA!!!!1!!!!1!!!1!!!1!!!1!

Stop being so sensible!

It's the BEST deal now. Maybe the best ever!

[Dill]

(10-03-2018, 07:34 PM)Millhouse Wrote: Hopefully it wont be as bad as last NAFTA was in drugs coming across. One of those little talked about side effects of NAFTA was the massive increase in illegal drugs coming over from Mexico after NAFTA passed. Coincidentally that led to the Mexican cartels becoming more rich and powerful, which is effecting their current state today.

What is the linkage between NAFTA and drugs then? More trade meant more smuggling opportunities, more vehicles and persons crossing the border?  Just curious.

[Millhouse]

(10-10-2018, 01:44 PM)Dill Wrote: What is the linkage between NAFTA and drugs then? More trade meant more smuggling opportunities, more vehicles and persons crossing the border?  Just curious.

Pretty much that. With the massive increase in free trade, Ive read elsewhere that maybe 10% of imported cargo if that could be thoroughly inspected for illicit drugs, because of the lack of manpower to do so.

Another researched aspect is that as cheap U.S. agriculture goods flooded into Mexico due to NAFTA, it hurt Mexico's farmers big time. And as a result there was an increase of cultivating of drug crops as a way to make money. 

Here is an article about it from COHA's site. Also just do a google search like "nafta drug trade"

http://www.coha.org/nafta-and-drug-trafficking-perpetuating-violence-and-the-illicit-supply-chain/

http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-230   about halfway down briefly talks about NAFTA

[Dill]

(10-10-2018, 02:22 PM)Millhouse Wrote: Pretty much that. With the massive increase in free trade, Ive read elsewhere that maybe 10% of imported cargo if that could be thoroughly inspected for illicit drugs, because of the lack of manpower to do so.

Another researched aspect is that as cheap U.S. agriculture goods flooded into Mexico due to NAFTA, it hurt Mexico's farmers big time. And as a result there was an increase of cultivating of drug crops as a way to make money. 

Here is an article about it from COHA's site. Also just do a google search like "nafta drug trade"

http://www.coha.org/nafta-and-drug-trafficking-perpetuating-violence-and-the-illicit-supply-chain/

http://latinamericanhistory.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199366439.001.0001/acrefore-9780199366439-e-230   about halfway down briefly talks about NAFTA

Informative. Thanks for the links, Mill.

[GMDino]

So soybean purchases in China are down 94% and Trump says that China is doing it because they think if they hurt the farmers they hurt him.  

(That's the reaction of a narcissist...but I digress.)

His statement that the farmers don't care because they are "patriots" who are suffering for the good the country is kind of bothering me.  A "man" who has never sacrificed a damn thing for anyone can't understand what is going on.

Can his supporters give me an estimate on when Trump will start "acting more Presidential" and "learning" anything about the job?  We're kinda running out of time in this term.

[GMDino]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-grains-idUSKCN1NQ0GA

Quote:Harvesting in a trade war: U.S. crops rot as storage costs soar


(Reuters) - U.S. farmers finishing their harvests are facing a big problem - where to put the mountain of grain they cannot sell to Chinese buyers.

For Louisiana farmer Richard Fontenot and his neighbors, the solution was a costly one: Let the crops rot.


Fontenot plowed under 1,000 of his 1,700 soybean acres this fall, chopping plants into the dirt instead of harvesting more than $300,000 worth of beans.

His beans were damaged by bad weather, made worse by a wet harvest. Normally, he could sell them anyway to a local elevator - giant silos usually run by international grains merchants that store grain.

But this year they aren’t buying as much damaged grain. The elevators are already chock full.


“No one wants them,” Fontenot said in a telephone interview. As he spoke, he drove his tractor across a soybean field, tilling under his crop. “I don’t know what else to do.”


Across the United States, grain farmers are plowing under crops, leaving them to rot or piling them on the ground, in hopes of better prices next year, according to interviews with more than two dozen farmers, academic researchers and farm lenders. It’s one of the results, they say, of a U.S. trade war with China that has sharply hurt export demand and swamped storage facilities with excess grain.


In Louisiana, up to 15 percent of the oilseed crop is being plowed under or is too damaged to market, according to data analyzed by Louisiana State University staff. Crops are going to waste in parts of Mississippi and Arkansas. Grain piles, dusted by snow, sit on the ground in North and South Dakota. And in Illinois and Indiana, some farmers are struggling to protect silo bags stuffed with crops from animals.

U.S. farmers planted 89.1 million acres of soybeans this year, the second most ever, expecting China’s rising demand to give them better returns than other bulk crops.


But Beijing slapped a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans in retaliation for duties imposed by Washington on Chinese exports. 


That effectively shut down U.S. soybean exports to China, worth around $12 billion last year. China typically takes around 60 percent of U.S. supplies.


The U.S. government rolled out an aid program of around the same size - $12 billion - to help farmers absorb the cost of the trade war. As of mid-November, $837.8 million had been paid out.


Some of that money will pass from farmers to grain merchants such as Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM.N) and Bunge Ltd (BG.N), who are charging farmers more to store crops at elevators where there is limited space. Bunge and ADM did not respond to requests for comment on storage fees.


The storage crunch and higher fees have boosted revenues at grain elevator Andersons [ANDE.O], Chief Executive Officer Pat Bowe said in an interview.

“It’s paying a grain handler to store - it’s the old-fashioned way to make money,” Bowe said.


These are also boom times for John Wierenga, president of grain storage bag retailer Neeralta. Sales of their bags - white tubes up to 300 feet now littering Midwest fields - are up 30 percent from a year ago.


“The demand has been huge,” Wierenga said. “We are sold out.”


HIGHER FEES


Farmers are feeling the pinch. Those in central Illinois could pay up to 40 percent more than in previous years to store crops over the coming weeks, agricultural consultant Matt Bennett estimated.

That amounts to between 3 cents to 6 cents a bushel, Bennett said, a painful expense for a crop that was already expected to deliver little income to farmers.


Storage rates are swinging wildly, depending on the elevator location. Grain dealers at rivers typically charge more than their inland counterparts because they are more dependent on export markets.


At some Midwest river terminals, farmers were paying 60 cents a bushel to store soybeans until the end of the year - more than twice as much as a year ago. Some commercial terminals are charging farmers to just drop off their soybeans.


The trade war has only exacerbated the strain on storage, which has been a persistent problem in recent years due largely to a worldwide oversupply of grains.


Even before this fall’s harvest, around 20 percent of total grain storage available in the U.S. was full with corn, soybeans and wheat from previous harvests, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That was the highest in 12 years for this time of year.


Some grain merchants are also charging additional fees for farmers who deliver less-than-perfect soybeans, said Russell Altom, a soybean farmer and senior vice president of agricultural lending at Relyance Bank in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.


“I’ve never seen things this bad,” Altom said. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the pricing and fees issues.”


Eric Maupin, a farmer in Newbern, Tennessee, said he was facing so-called dockage rates of between 60 cents at $1.20 per bushels at Bunge Elevators in his area - more than three times as high as a year ago.


“Damage can be anything - a split bean, one that’s too small, one that’s too big - whatever,” Maupin said.


Some farmers are pulling farm equipment out of barns to make room for the overflow of grains.

After packing nearly half a million bushels of corn and soybeans in their usual steel bins, Terry Honselman and his family found some additional space in 35-year-old shed on their Casey, Illinois, farm.


Most years, the building protects farm equipment and bags of seed. Now, it is stuffed with 75,000 bushels of corn.


Like others, Honselman is banking on a resolution to the trade war before this spring - when he says he will need the space back for his planting supplies.

[Benton]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/26/gm-lay-off-percent-salaried-workers-halt-production-five-plants-us-canada/?utm_term=.e7c88851cd75

Personally, less of a trade war victim and more a victim of corporate greed. but at least their stock value is up!

[GMDino]

(11-26-2018, 05:21 PM)Benton Wrote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/26/gm-lay-off-percent-salaried-workers-halt-production-five-plants-us-canada/?utm_term=.e7c88851cd75

Personally, less of a trade war victim and more a victim of corporate greed. but at least their stock value is up!

I just don't get it...all they have to do is make something that sells better.  

[*bfine32*]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-grant-highest-honor-jared-kushner-233121511.html

Quote:Mexico will bestow its highest honor for foreign nationals on US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner for his role in saving the country's free-trade agreement with the United States and Canada.

It appears Mexico is pleased with the new agreement.

[GMDino]

(11-27-2018, 09:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-grant-highest-honor-jared-kushner-233121511.html


It appears Mexico is pleased with the new agreement.

Thought family wasn't supposed to work on policy? 

[Benton]

(11-27-2018, 09:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-grant-highest-honor-jared-kushner-233121511.html


It appears Mexico is pleased with the new agreement.

Of the three countries, it benefits them most.

Would be great if they'd negotiated a trade agreement that benefited American workers over foreign workers, or international comoanies. 

[*bfine32*]

(11-28-2018, 01:13 AM)Benton Wrote: Of the three countries, it benefits them most.

Would be great if they'd negotiated a trade agreement that benefited American workers over foreign workers, or international comoanies. 

How Nationalistic of you. 

[GMDino]

When you’ve gotta copy off of someone else’s homework...? pic.twitter.com/qW7kXSyBgs

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