Trump nightmare scenario

[fredtoast]

I don't see any way Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination. He only has 30% of the party, and he is so strongly opposed by so many others that I don't see him ever getting a majority. As people drop out more of them will go to candidates other than Trump. HOWEVER I could be wrong. And even if I am right about the nomination there is still another hightmaer possibility

Trump splits the Republican party, and Hillary nose dives in the polls. Trump either runs as a independant in the general election, or if he wins the Republican nomination it forces a moderate Republican to run as a third party. No one of the candidates can win enough electorial votes te get elected. This throws the election to the House of Representatives.

Due to gerrymandering of districts most seats in the House are held by the most extreme members of each party. The districts arec drawn up so that everyone knows which party will win. So the winner usually has to be the most extreme to win. The Republicans hold a commanding control of the House (234 TO 201) This means the House is one of the few groups that has enough nut job members to elect Donald Trump. He would not have to come close to winning the general election. If he could just draw 20% that would easily be enough to send it to the house. No matter how weak the Democrat candidate runs then party ticket will get 35% of the votes. I know you would have to look at it state by state and see how many electorial votes could be won in each, but I am guessing that a three way split would hurt both major parties enough keep either of them from getting the necessary votes.

[Belsnickel]

Translation: I need to start job hunting in Hamburg.

[*michaelsean*]

Do you need to win 50% to win a state? If not, the Democrat should easily win a plurality in enough states against a split ticket.

Trump's negatives are so high that he seriously may not get an additional vote in the general election beyond the people who support him right now.

[BmorePat87]

I mentioned before that I was reading some PPP polls in November and Trump is no one's "second choice" candidate. That's where Rubio and Cruz clean up.

Trump is dominating in a crowded field in early states that are fairly irrelevant in a general election. We'll see what happens to Rubio and Cruz when the others realize they need to drop out.

[Belsnickel]

(01-27-2016, 02:08 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Do you need to win 50% to win a state? If not, the Democrat should easily win a plurality in enough states against a split ticket.

I think that is determined by the state. Like how almost all states are 'all or none' except for, what is it, Nebraska?

[BmorePat87]

(01-27-2016, 02:12 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I think that is determined by the state. Like how almost all states are 'all or none' except for, what is it, Nebraska?

All states are winner take all except for Nebraska and Maine who give out electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district (plus 2 extras to whoever wins the state).

But, no, you wouldn't need more than 50% to win the state.

[Belsnickel]

(01-27-2016, 02:17 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: All states are winner take all except for Nebraska and Maine who give out electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district (plus 2 extras to whoever wins the state).

But, no, you wouldn't need more than 50% to win the state.

Of course Maine would be like that. I didn't think they would need to get them all for the all or none, it would just be whoever has the most.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

I don't know why this is even being discussed.

If Trump wins the GOP Nomination, the country will elect Sanders or Clinton as president
If Trump doesn't win the GOP Nomination, he will run as an Independant and Sanders or Clinton will win.

It all hinges on whether or not Trump runs as an Independant if he doesn't win the GOP Nomination.

[Goalpost]

Trump was at 19 percent in August and now is at 36 percent. Every time someone says he is at his ceiling he goes higher. So..i don't think it is played out yet

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

[6andcounting]

Any party that has two candidates running - one being an independent - would lose the election. Unless Bloomberg runs and each party has an independent running against the nominee.

[JustWinBaby]

hahaha...I love it. Repubs have "voter fraud" and Dems have "gerrymandering"

[fredtoast]

(01-27-2016, 02:08 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Do you need to win 50% to win a state?  If not, the Democrat should easily win a plurality in enough states against a split ticket.

Trump's negatives are so high that he seriously may not get an additional vote in the general election beyond the people who support him right now.

I think you are both probably correct.  But say Hillary gets drunk and tries to rape Taylor Swift.  Then Bernie gets the nomination and an uneducated general public is scared away by the "socialist" label.  

[Vlad]

(01-27-2016, 03:49 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I think you are both probably correct.  But say Hillary gets drunk and tries to rape Taylor Swift.  Then Bernie gets the nomination and an uneducated general public is scared away by the "socialist" label.  

You quoted "socialist". That is exactly what he is.

[fredtoast]

(01-27-2016, 04:17 PM)Vlad Wrote: You quoted "socialist". That is exactly what he is.

No he isn't.  He does not support the government control of all services and means of production.  He believes in a capitalist economy.  

Bernie describes himself as a "Democratic Socialist".  He believes in a capitalist society with a lot of benefits for the working class that makes it ll run.  I don't know why so many people oppose that.  It is a system that works well in many other countries around the world.  In fact the United States is the only industrialized country that does not have some form of socialized health care for all citizens.

[*wildcats forever*]

(01-27-2016, 04:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No he isn't.  He does not support the government control of all services and means of production.  He believes in a capitalist economy.  

Bernie describes himself as a "Democratic Socialist".  He believes in a capitalist society with a lot of benefits for the working class that makes it ll run.  I don't know why so many people oppose that.  It is a system that works well in many other countries around the world.  In fact the United States is the only industrialized country that does not have some form of socialized health care for all citizens.

Exactly! It's so frustrating with how the words "Democratic Socialist" have been misconstrued. Socialism in America has been alive and well for decades here. Look at our roads, military, libraries, public schools, Social Security and on and on.....all socialist programs. Media-hyping this as something bad isn't helping. Instead of educating those about Democratic Socialism, these numb nuts just keep harping on fear and lies. 
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/3/29/1078852/-75-Ways-Socialism-Has-Improved-America

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

You missed another possible wrinkle Fred.  If Bloomberg enters the race he splits the Dem vote. 

[Benton]

I don't see him getting the nomination. In the off shoot he does, no way he wins against a Democrat. Any Democrat. His appeal is among a still small amount of, for the most part, tea partiers.

[*bfine32*]

(01-27-2016, 04:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No he isn't.  He does not support the government control of all services and means of production.  He believes in a capitalist economy.  

Bernie describes himself as a "Democratic Socialist".  He believes in a capitalist society with a lot of benefits for the working class that makes it ll run.  I don't know why so many people oppose that.  It is a system that works well in many other countries around the world.  In fact the United States is the only industrialized country that does not have some form of socialized health care for all citizens.

.........so he's a Socialist

[StLucieBengal]

He only claims to be a democrat socialist because he knows his path to victory isn't yelling he is a socialist

[StLucieBengal]

 Sociopathicsteeler Wrote:You missed another possible wrinkle Fred.  If Bloomberg enters the race he splits the Dem vote. 

Trump will split the democrat vote as well .   He will take a chunk.