With Merkel's Foes in Disarray, Germany Defies the Trump Trend

[GMDino]

I'm certain we had other threads about this topic but I'm not searching for one of them tonight.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-21/merkel-s-populist-foes-in-disarray-as-germany-defies-trump-surge

Quote:Back in January, Frauke Petry of the Alternative for Germany party shared a stage with her fellow populist leaders from across Europe to mark what was billed as “the Year of Patriots.”


Buoyed by the election of Donald Trump, Petry joined Marine Le Pen of France and Dutchman Geert Wilders in the German city of Koblenz to predict that Europe’s establishment was about to be swept away.


Frauke Petry in Koblenz.

Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

Three months later, the meeting at the confluence of the Rhine and Mosel rivers looks like it may have been the high-water mark for Petry and her party. The AfD has since lost a third of its support as it descended into infighting, and this week Petry relinquished her bid to lead the party’s campaign for this year’s German elections.


It’s a dramatic reversal for a party that until recently posed the most serious threat in years to Angela Merkel and her Christian Democratic-led bloc. While several factors have contributed to the AfD’s slide, not least the easing of the refugee crisis that helped it to reach record highs in the polls last year, many voters in Germany have been turned off the populist message by the performance of the Trump administration, according to Werner Patzelt, a political science professor at the Technical University of Dresden.


Trump’s early days in office show that “it’s not enough to come to power with populist positions,” Patzelt said in an interview. “Reality gets in the way.” In addition, he said that Merkel’s party and its affiliates “have changed their refugee policy by nearly 180 degrees, without, of course, declaring that they have done so.”


Cologne Convention
AfD delegates will attempt to turn around the party’s fortunes this weekend as they gather in Cologne for a national convention that is due to decide on their main candidates and platform for the Sept. 24 election. Outside the meeting in Germany’s fourth-largest city, thousands of demonstrators gathered to protest a party they accuse of spreading xenophobia and racism.

The party met three days after Petry, the 41-year-old public face of the party, responded to sustained political attacks from right-wing rivals by announcing that she won’t be a top contender for the vote, which supporters hope -- and polls have long suggested -- will propel the AfD into the federal parliament for the first time.


“It’s a pity for the party,” Georg Pazderski, the AfD’s leader in Berlin’s state parliament, said in an interview. “I can relate to that from a human perspective because I noted in recent weeks that the attacks on her were very, very abusive in some cases.”


Petry sought to allay the atmosphere of disunity at the party conference, railing against Merkel’s “multicultural and socially destructive” policies and calling for a return to a “Europe of sovereign states.”


“Let’s try to engage a broad sector of the population,” Petry said on Saturday. “We won’t surrender the playing field and the government bench to the old parties and their shouting supporters outside.”


As National Front leader Le Pen moves within reach of the French presidency and Wilders builds on his Freedom Party’s seats in parliament, the AfD has been riven by internal battles over the party’s direction. Formed to protest euro-area bailouts before the focus was shifted to immigration, Petry’s camp now says it wants to plot a course toward the political mainstream. Her rivals, particularly among right-wing nationalists, accuse Petry of concentrating too much power in her hands. 


Holocaust Memorial
The current rift broke open in January when Bjoern Hoecke, the AfD’s leader in the eastern state of Thuringia, gave a speech in which he assailed Germany’s atonement for the Nazi era. Referencing the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin’s center, Hoecke said that Germans were the only people who “planted a monument of shame in the heart of their capital.” The comments drew a firestorm of criticism from across the political spectrum, including from Petry, who is pushing for Hoecke’s expulsion from the AfD.


The party convention was shaping up to be a showdown between Petry and her political foes. In a video statement, Petry said it would decide “what kind of future strategy” the party would adopt. “So far, different parts of the AfD have pursued different strategies -- although one must understand that the AfD’s image has recently been dominated by the strategy of fundamental opposition.”


The infighting has translated into dwindling poll numbers, abetted by the easing of anxiety over the influx of a million refugees, which dominated public debate throughout 2016, and by the revival of support for the Social Democrats under Martin Schulz.


By channeling German fears and anxieties over the worst refugee crisis since World War II, the AfD had threatened to revive the specter of far-right nationalism in a country that has spent the entire postwar period trying to ensure such sentiment never returns. Now Merkel has a window of opportunity to focus on the more potent threat ahead of the election: Schulz’s Social Democrats.


For a profile of the Social Democratic leader, click here


Polls show Merkel’s faction gaining ground after the SPD initially surged on the back of Schulz’s surprise emergence in January as her challenger. Her CDU-led bloc is polling at 34-36 percent support compared to the SPD’s 30-32 percent. The AfD has 8-10 percent, down from a high of about 15 percent in December.

It’s still too early to write the party off, both amid signs that the SPD’s “Schulz effect” may have peaked and Merkel’s continued vulnerability on the refugees issue and on terrorism. Petry remains the party’s co-leader alongside Joerg Meuthen, an economics professor. And unless she resigns the post, she’ll still be in charge and able to help the AfD regroup however the party navigates the turbulence through the weekend.



“Certainly some mistakes have been made in the past,” said the AfD’s Pazderski. But as far as he is concerned, Petry “will continue to play a very important role.”

I'm certain Matt will know more about the truth of this.

[Belsnickel]

I am on my phone and didn't read all of it, but I just have to say: Hoheenergie! MEGA! Der Schulzzug hat keine Bremsen!

[Dill]

(04-23-2017, 09:43 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I am on my phone and didn't read all of it, but I just have to say: Hoheenergie! MEGA! Der Schulzzug hat keine Bremsen!

LOL Im gegenteil--die Angie ist immer noch eine starke Gegnerin!

[GMDino]

(04-23-2017, 09:43 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I am on my phone and didn't read all of it, but I just have to say: Hoheenergie! MEGA! Der Schulzzug hat keine Bremsen!

(04-23-2017, 10:25 PM)Dill Wrote: LOL Im gegenteil, die Angie ist immer noch eine starke Gegnerin!

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

Sadly, Germany seems so haunted by its recent past that they are willingly engaging in cultural suicide. Guilt is not a solid foundation for national decision making.

[Dill]

(04-23-2017, 10:47 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Sadly, Germany seems so haunted by its recent past that they are willingly engaging in cultural suicide.  Guilt is not a solid foundation for national decision making.

Time for cultural hygiene.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-23-2017, 11:49 PM)Dill Wrote: Time for cultural hygiene.

So typical of the left wing to indulge in Nazi analogies.  It'd be amusing if the consequences weren't so far reaching.  BTW, you're response will be imminently predictable. 

[hollodero]

(04-23-2017, 10:47 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Sadly, Germany seems so haunted by its recent past that they are willingly engaging in cultural suicide.  Guilt is not a solid foundation for national decision making.

"Cultural suicide"?
Not voting for AfD is "cultural suicide" to you?

Please expand.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-24-2017, 12:05 AM)hollodero Wrote: "Cultural suicide"?
Not voting for AfD is "cultural suicide" to you?

Please expand.

No, not at all, I never even mentioned AfD.  The intake of millions of people from a foreign culture within a limited time frame will undoubtedly affect cultural change.  Germany is not the United States, there is no concept of the "melting pot".  German culture within twenty years will be unrecognizable from that twenty years prior to now.  I have friends in Germany who already report profound differences.  Do you disagree that every nation is entitled to nurture its own cultural heritage?

[hollodero]

(04-24-2017, 12:20 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: No, not at all, I never even mentioned AfD.  The intake of millions of people from a foreign culture within a limited time frame will undoubtedly affect cultural change.  Germany is not the United States, there is no concept of the "melting pot".  German culture within twenty years will be unrecognizable from that twenty years prior to now.  I have friends in Germany who already report profound differences.  Do you disagree that every nation is entitled to nurture its own cultural heritage?

OK. It was an AfD thread and they are the only party who takes your stance, so.

Of course, every nation is entitled to nurture its cultural heritage. I think it's very far fetched to say this nurturing is no longer possible because of refugees.

I understand (or better said, I acknowledge) there are problems in Germany. There definitely are. I don't take issue if someone sees things a bit stricter as I do regarding giving refugees safe haven or on immigration in general. I personally think becoming a "melting pot" of some sorts is inevitable in a world that's getting smaller, I also think that is actually a good thing and that culture is nothing static to be conserved unchanged throughout the generations - but there are other opinons out there that I respect. All good.
I do take issue with using the word "cultural suicide" though. This is Russian Troll speak and is not based on reality.

(And friends are always a questionable source. People here have friends in the US giving them all kinds of biased pictures about their country.)

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-24-2017, 12:58 AM)hollodero Wrote: OK. It was an AfD thread and they are the only party who takes your stance, so.

Fair enough, I get the confusion.

Quote:Of course, every nation is entitled to nurture its cultural heritage. I think it's very far fetched to say this nurturing is no longer possible because of refugees.

Too much of any cultural influx will have profound effects.  This isn't a radical concept.  I do get what you are saying though.

Quote:I understand (or better said, I acknowledge) there are problems in Germany. There definitely are. I don't take issue if someone sees things a bit stricter as I do regarding giving refugees safe haven or on immigration in general. I personally think becoming a "melting pot" of some sorts is inevitable in a world that's getting smaller, I also think that is actually a good thing and that culture is nothing static to be conserved unchanged throughout the generations - but there are other opinons out there that I respect.

In general I'd agree with you.  Especially in the United States, we are better for the assimilation (not that we're the Borg) of all the cultures that have immigrated to our country.  Sadly, and please bear with me, I think Europe, and Germany in particular, are attempting to assimilate large numbers of people with a cultural outlook in diametric opposition to western democratic values.  This is not a new point from me, I have often pointed out that i find the "alliance" between the western left and Islam to be a Frankenstein monster.   

Quote:All good.
I do take issue with using the word "cultural suicide" though. This is Russian Troll speak and is not based on reality.

If that is a loaded term I am not familiar with it, honestly.  As previously stated I find Islam as generally practiced in the middle east to be inimical to western democratic values.  I do not think this is a radical or ill formed opinion.  

Quote:(And friends are always a questionable source. People here have friends in the US giving them all kinds of biased pictures about their country.)

Also fair enough.  

[hollodero]

(04-24-2017, 01:30 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: Sadly, and please bear with me, I think Europe, and Germany in particular, are attempting to assimilate large numbers of people with a cultural outlook in diametric opposition to western democratic values.

Oh I do bear with you, why wouldn't I. And I can't really disagree, as much as I'd like to. They are indeed in diametric opposition, and this problem needs to be talked about and addressed.
And there are problems.
I just try to give that the weight it has. Islam won't be the end of western civilization. Refugees don't bring a significant rise in crime rates (until now), they don't threaten our way of living, they don't undermine our values and beliefs and laws and customs, and they are not the ones with the bombs. But many are assimilating without accepting, and ever since the European Turks voted for Erdogan in large numbers, I have to adapt my point of view. I always thought at some time we have to support a more secular Islam and immigrants are a good aid in doing so, but that obviously isn't working. 

(Stupid Erdogan-voting Turkish immigrants, they make me angry, I find myself agreeing with Geert Wilders on that particular issue. You vote for an islamic de facto-dictatorship in your country, why stay in the freedom-loving democracy and not go live in said country then. Bad fits, I'm not for forcing them to leave, but I actually feel they should leave. See, I can be harsh.)

I don't think stopping immigration is the answer though.
Concerning the current "influx", I still think we have a moral obligation to help those fleeing death and destruction. The pictures of the Sarin attack just vizualized what is going on day in day out in Syria, killing, massacring and so forth. Some flee Assad and other gruesome murderers, but many of the refugees flee radical Islam too, they are not here to promote it. Our position gets a bit tricky if we refute to help those fleeing radical Islam out of refusal of radical Islam. 
Merkel took a brave stance, wise or not so wise - a humanitarian one that doesn't benefit her in any way, and that I feel needs to be respected in a politician. I think the problem starts with what happens with the people after they are allowed to stay. There we fail. Miserably.

(04-24-2017, 01:30 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: If that is a loaded term I am not familiar with it, honestly.  As previously stated I find Islam as generally practiced in the middle east to be inimical to western democratic values.  I do not think this is a radical or ill formed opinion.  

Your opinion is not ill formed. Denying the truth in these words is.
Cultural suicide just takes it too far :) (and it's loaded.)

[Belsnickel]

(04-24-2017, 02:57 AM)hollodero Wrote: I don't think stopping immigration is the answer though.
Concerning the current "influx", I still think we have a moral obligation to help those fleeing death and destruction. The pictures of the Sarin attack just vizualized what is going on day in day out in Syria, killing, massacring and so forth. Some flee Assad and other gruesome murderers, but many of the refugees flee radical Islam too, they are not here to promote it. Our position gets a bit tricky if we refute to help those fleeing radical Islam out of refusal of radical Islam. 
Merkel took a brave stance, wise or not so wise - a humanitarian one that doesn't benefit her in any way, and that I feel needs to be respected in a politician. I think the problem starts with what happens with the people after they are allowed to stay. There we fail. Miserably.

And, it should be noted, the goal is not for the refugees to remain in Europe permanently. Those refugees would rather be home, and the goal is to make that happen.

I think the problem is that a lot of people conflate several different issues into one when it comes to what is going on in Europe.

[Dill]

(04-24-2017, 12:01 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: So typical of the left wing to indulge in Nazi analogies.  It'd be amusing if the consequences weren't so far reaching.  BTW, you're response will be imminently predictable. 

I certainly did not predict you would pop on this thread to lament German guilt and speak of "cultural suicide."

Wow. 

And soon thereafter you note a supposed '"alliance" between the western left and Islam" which you term "a Frankenstein monster."

What are the far-reaching consequences of "Nazi analogies"?  Discomfort with right wing politics? Discomfort with history? Tragic.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-24-2017, 09:08 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: And, it should be noted, the goal is not for the refugees to remain in Europe permanently. Those refugees would rather be home, and the goal is to make that happen.

I think the problem is that a lot of people conflate several different issues into one when it comes to what is going on in Europe.

I have trouble believing that. How many of them tried to get to the UK or Sweden before they stopped accepting anymore? We're talking like ~3,000 miles from Syria to Sweden.

If you were interested in getting back home, why not stop in Turkey, Italy, Greece, Spain? Places close to your home, where it would be easy to return.

Instead you head 3,000-ish miles, through half a dozen/a dozen perfectly safe countries, to the ones with the best benefits and accommodations. Once you pass by more than 1 safe country to your destination, you stop being a refugee and start being an attempted immigrant looking for good benefits, nice economy, well paying jobs, etc. A lot of the refugees aren't even from Syria. Many are coming from Africa.

[Belsnickel]

(04-24-2017, 04:02 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I have trouble believing that. How many of them tried to get to the UK or Sweden before they stopped accepting anymore? We're talking like ~3,000 miles from Syria to Sweden.

If you were interested in getting back home, why not stop in Turkey, Italy, Greece, Spain? Places close to your home, where it would be easy to return.

Instead you head 3,000-ish miles, through half a dozen/a dozen perfectly safe countries, to the ones with the best benefits and accommodations. Once you pass by more than 1 safe country to your destination, you stop being a refugee and start being an attempted immigrant looking for good benefits, nice economy, well paying jobs, etc. A lot of the refugees aren't even from Syria. Many are coming from Africa.

Short, simple answer: those countries wouldn't accept them.

[*michaelsean*]

(04-24-2017, 03:35 PM)Dill Wrote: I certainly did not predict you would pop on this thread to lament German guilt and speak of "cultural suicide."

Wow. 

And soon thereafter you note a supposed '"alliance" between the western left and Islam" which you term "a Frankenstein monster."

What are the far-reaching consequences of "Nazi analogies"?  Discomfort with right wing politics? Discomfort with history? Tragic.

Nazi analogies are just plain moronic.  Just like comparing Obama to Stalin, it's nonsense.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-24-2017, 04:24 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Short, simple answer: those countries wouldn't accept them.

Or they never tried because they knew that until mid-2016, Sweden gave daily allowances of money even to refugees who were denied asylum.

I would love to know how many people who went to Sweden had paperwork from Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, AND Denmark showing they were denied asylum... because that's the countries you'd need to pass through in the straightest mostly land route from Syria to Sweden, even if you ignore the countries around those who they could have gone to.

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(04-24-2017, 03:35 PM)Dill Wrote: I certainly did not predict you would pop on this thread to lament German guilt and speak of "cultural suicide."

Wow.

German's today should have no guilt, they took no part in the atrocities of their ancestors. The fact that many still do is sad, how much of a burden to feel obligated and guilty due to the actions of people decades before you were born.

Quote:And soon thereafter you note a supposed '"alliance" between the western left and Islam" which you term "a Frankenstein monster."

Yes, I find it odd that the left has latched on to the most misogynistic, homophobic and theocratic organization on Earth.  Normally the left is against things like treating woman as third class citizens and executing homosexuals for the crime of being homosexual. I find it odd that you don't find that odd.

Quote:What are the far-reaching consequences of "Nazi analogies"?

 
They lose all meaning.  That line is about a thousand miles behind us btw.

Quote:Discomfort with right wing politics? Discomfort with history? Tragic.

Sad!

[hollodero]

(04-24-2017, 09:08 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: And, it should be noted, the goal is not for the refugees to remain in Europe permanently. Those refugees would rather be home, and the goal is to make that happen.

I think the problem is that a lot of people conflate several different issues into one when it comes to what is going on in Europe.

Yeah, that's a good goal, it's just questionable how realistic that is. You can keep people on hold only for so many months. At some point, you would need to get then some perspective. Allowance to work. At some point, they will want a place to live. At some point, they want to start a family. If they already have one, the kids will go to school. They strike some roots. As the years go by, less and less people will be willing to go back into a wasted homeland. 
And no one knows how long Syria will be in war, and no one knows what peace looks like. Who will be the victor, Assad? Muslim brotherhood? Do they want the refugees back? There are a lot of question marks, and it's not unreasonable to believe most refugees in the end are here to stay. Happened with Jugoslavia too.

(04-24-2017, 04:51 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Or they never tried because they knew that until mid-2016, Sweden gave daily allowances of money even to refugees who were denied asylum. 

I would love to know how many people who went to Sweden had paperwork from Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, AND Denmark showing they were denied asylum... because that's the countries you'd need to pass through in the straightest mostly land route from Syria to Sweden, even if you ignore the countries around those who they could have gone to.

Now that's a fairly complicated route... but really, most refugees are appointed through the EU administration. We have quotas.