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+--- Thread: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? (/Thread-Coronavirus-Information-who-do-you-trust)
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 09:34 AM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Sometimes it's the simple minded that have the easiest time seeing the forest through the trees.
As it stands right now, with all the current numbers, the likelihood of a healthy individual dying from Covid in the US is around .01% and possibly much less.
The odds of an infected, healthy individual dying from Covid in the US is .7% and that is being extremely generous with the numbers. I used 25% of deaths as healthy individuals. The real number is probably closer to .3% - .5%.
But ya, let's keep it all locked down. You can say i'm uneducated and too stupid to discuss lock downs, but you cannot change those numbers and you cannot change the harm being done by the lock downs. KISS applies here.
Do you have a source for your numbers or info? Or at least show your work. To say I'm skeptical is an understatement.
Here's an analysis of the numbers by John Hopkins . . .
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Their numbers are significantly different than your numbers. Same applies to credibility. If forced to choose between believing John Hopkins or the guy who learned how to calculate 25% off socks at Walmart less than 24 hours ago, I'm gonna go with John Hopkins. You wanna know why? They know what they're talking about. How's that for KISS?
Also, I didn't say you were uneducated and stupid. I said your opinion on masks and epidemiology data is uninformed and uneducated because 1) you admitted you don't know how masks work therefore you aren't qualified to advise the hospital you work at on mask protocols let alone the entire country, 2) you didn't know how to calculate percentages until the last night. Those are facts, not opinions. Like Trump, I'm just telling it like it is. Except, unlike Trump, I literally mean what I just wrote.
You don't even know enough to know when to be quiet. Do you wanna know why I don't hand out IT security advice? Because I don't know what the F I'm talking about when it comes to IT security. I defer to the experts and keep my uniformed opinions to myself.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Nately120 - 09-17-2020
If you would have told me the day after Trump got elected we'd be heading into the 2020 election debating on the semantics and/or magnitude of 200k American deaths even I, the most pessimistic person around, would have been a bit surprised.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 12:09 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Show me where I called for a single mask mandate. You can’t because I didn’t. I’d settle for a President who doesn’t lie about the need for wearing them so he could have avoided declaring a state of emergency after sitting with his thumb up his ass for 2.5 months.Show me where I called for a single mask mandate. You can’t because I didn’t. I’d settle for a President who doesn’t lie about the need for wearing them so he could have avoided declaring a state of emergency after sitting with his thumb up his ass for 2.5 months.
Name these mysteriously nonspecific ancillary harms. And remember, it’s 200K dead and climbing in 6 months and we’re probably not even halfway to a vaccine.
Now multiple the suffering for that one person x 200K Covid deaths and climbing.
You keep claiming there isn’t any evidence to support lock downs, so I’d like to see your data on lockdown related suicides and child abuse.
Show me the data. I grew up in an abusive home. As much as it sucked, I’d prefer it to death. Because the beatings eventually stopped. Death is permanent.
The economy recovered after the pandemic in 1918.
All that’s important. Which is why we need we need strategies to avoid lock downs. Not lies and political rallies which helped spread the disease leading to the lockdowns.
After your tutorial on the mortality rate of 3% producing 9M deaths you still don’t get it.
Let’s talk about them. Because so far all you’ve offered is speculation and fear mongering and little to no actual facts. Careful, you don’t want to start a panic. So maybe you should just lie to us about how the ancillary harms are a Democrat hoax. You know, for our own good.
Remember back in March when Trump said keeping Covid deaths under 100K would be a good job? I do. Well, all I got to say is, “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!”
Hell, I can’t educate you on masks. I’m not a miracle worker.
I never said you did. I was trying to restate my position more clearly.
Name these mysteriously nonspecific ancillary harms. And remember, it’s 200K dead and climbing in 6 months and we’re probably not even halfway to a vaccine.
Just Google man! And I thought I wrote 3 paragraphs on it.
Now multiple the suffering for that one person x 200K Covid deaths and climbing.
Context bro. While it is awful that anyone has died from Covid, the fact is that a huge majority of deaths are elderly or elderly with comorbitities. And over 40% of the deaths were from elderly in nursing homes. They were end of life or close to it already. We are talking about 10's of millions of healthy people who have lots of life left. We are talking about business owners, employees, kids.
You keep claiming there isn’t any evidence to support lock downs, so I’d like to see your data on lockdown related suicides and child abuse.
I didn't say there was no evidence for locking down. I said at this point in time we are causing more harm by the lock downs than the lives that are being saved by it.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/05/27/coronavirus-lockdown-costing-more-lives-its-saving-14815
https://kmph.com/news/nation-world/letter-from-doctors-calls-on-president-trump-to-end-lockdown
Show me the data. I grew up in an abusive home. As much as it sucked, I’d prefer it to death. Because the beatings eventually stopped. Death is permanent.
https://www.city-journal.org/child-abuse-covid-19-lockdown
The economy recovered after the pandemic in 1918.
They also didn't impose lockdowns and 102 years ago is a completely different time with completely different tech.
All that’s important. Which is why we need we need strategies to avoid lock downs. Not lies and political rallies which helped spread the disease leading to the lockdowns.
"helped spread the disease". See: "peaceful protests" that are A OK, with CNN and MSNBC. The best was on the same day CNN was hammering Trump for some gathering (not rally) with optional masks and social distancing, CNN was also showing coverage and praising thousands having a legit peaceful protest (I forget where) with optional masks and little social distancing. I mean the hypocrisy is just absolutely astounding at this point. How about Gov. Cuomo going off on a normal citizen because normal citizen called Cuomo out in real time for violating his own mask mandate and rhetoric. Rules for thee, not for me! See: Nancy "Blowout" Pelosi. It's bad on both sides.
After your tutorial on the mortality rate of 3% producing 9M deaths you still don’t get it.
I guess I will have to show my dumbness again. We are at 200K after 7 months of mostly Elderly and elderly with comorbitities. How did we get to 9M again? And the mortality rate of healthy, infected individuals is far less than 1%.
Let’s talk about them. Because so far all you’ve offered is speculation and fear mongering and little to no actual facts. Careful, you don’t want to start a panic. So maybe you should just lie to us about how the ancillary harms are a Democrat hoax. You know, for our own good.
I have offered fear mongering? By saying we should open because Covid and the stats, imo, don't warrant a lockdown and it's not as bad as the media is making it out to be and the ancillary harms could potentially be worse than Covid in the end? That's fear mongering???? Lie about ancillary harms being a Dem hoax? I'm just giving my opinion.
Remember back in March when Trump said keeping Covid deaths under 100K would be a good job? I do. Well, all I got to say is, “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!” If you subtract the 40%+ nursing home deaths brought on by the incompetent Dem governors you are pretty close to that number after 7 months of Covid.
How did Florida do in nursing home deaths again? And Florida has more elderly care facilities than NY.Hell, I can’t educate you on masks. I’m not a miracle worker.
Sorry. I guess I am just a big , stupid uneducated dumb dumb.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 09:56 AM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Your numbers don't change the facts. NY 32,662 deaths and FL 12,938 deaths. I'm pretty sure the dead people don't care what geographical location they died in.
Not true, I can do percentages now!
The numbers don't change the fact population density plays an important role in disease transmission and mortality. Why do you think I pointed it out?
Phil's a saint. I on the other hand don't have the patience to deal with people who don't know how masks work advising the entire country on wearing masks. Or doing statistics without being able to calculate a percentage. Probably because I just don't understand their thought process. I'd compare it to someone who doesn't understand how an internal combustion engine works, but doesn't think they really need to put gas in the car despite the manufacturer's recommendations to put gas in the car because that's their opinion. An unpopular opinion, but still their opinion. Or like me coming to your work and claiming, "Gee, I don't think we really need all this network security to protect patient's PHI. Hell, we can probably get rid of the whole IT department and save a lot of money. Although, that's probably not a popular opinion in the IT department."
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 10:38 AM)Nately120 Wrote: If you would have told me the day after Trump got elected we'd be heading into the 2020 election debating on the semantics and/or magnitude of 200k American deaths even I, the most pessimistic person around, would have been a bit surprised.
There are less than 4500 US KIAs due to our invasion and occupation of Iraq. So 200K US Covid deaths is the equivalent of 45 Operation Iraqi Freedoms back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - BmorePat87 - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 10:38 AM)Nately120 Wrote: If you would have told me the day after Trump got elected we'd be heading into the 2020 election debating on the semantics and/or magnitude of 200k American deaths even I, the most pessimistic person around, would have been a bit surprised.
It's been a gradual slide into absurdity.
I think we'd react differently in 2016 to someone arguing that sacrificing 150k dead Americans are worth not wearing masks and being able to go out to restaurants for a few months.
At this point in the thread I have told that 5000 dead people a month and rising versus 150 a month and decreasing is okay because the economy might be better.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-17-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And if they run out of bread then just let them eat cake, right?
Ummmmm
philhos Wrote:... grocery stores offering delivery ...
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-17-2020
(09-16-2020, 06:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Trust the desperate and poor to handle your life-line of sustenance at your own risk. Hope they don't covid-up your dinner! Hell, I assume those damn miscreants are starting the "spit in the grubhub challenge."
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/30/746600105/1-in-4-food-delivery-drivers-admit-to-eating-your-food
There are very very very few people who don't have contact with at least 1 other human being that could help them out. But, if someone chooses or for some other reason finds themselves living the hermit lifestyle, it's still easier than ever before to avoid leaving your domicile.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 10:38 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Do you have a source for your numbers or info? Or at least show your work. To say I'm skeptical is an understatement.Same numbers I keep using. 200K deaths. 6.61M infected. 40+% of the 200K deaths from nursing homes. 325M US population. Covid deaths by age. See link. And now I can do percentages!!!! I feel so powerful!! lol. Thanks PhilHos!!
Here's an analysis of the numbers by John Hopkins . . .
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Their numbers are significantly different than your numbers. Same applies to credibility. If forced to choose between believing John Hopkins or the guy who learned how to calculate 25% off socks at Walmart less than 24 hours ago, I'm gonna go with John Hopkins. You wanna know why? They know what they're talking about. How's that for KISS?
Also, I didn't say you were uneducated and stupid. I said your opinion on masks and epidemiology data is uninformed and uneducated because 1) you admitted you don't know how masks work therefore you aren't qualified to advise the hospital you work at on mask protocols let alone the entire country, 2) you didn't know how to calculate percentages until the last night. Those are facts, not opinions. Like Trump, I'm just telling it like it is. Except, unlike Trump, I literally mean what I just wrote.
You don't even know enough to know when to be quiet. Do you wanna know why I don't hand out IT security advice? Because I don't know what the F I'm talking about when it comes to IT security. I defer to the experts and keep my uniformed opinions to myself.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
If 50K perfectly healthy, but infected people die out of the 6.61M infected people, that is a mortality rate of .0075 or .75%. I'm pretty sure 25% of all Covid deaths were not perfectly healthy, but infected individuals. Credit to PhilHos for the math lesson!
I will ask again, you think we should be locked down and crushing our economy, hurting 10's of millions of people and causing untold ancillary damage that could possibly reverberate for years or decades to come for a mortality rate of healthy, infected individuals of realistically .3-.5%?
And total Covid deaths across the USA = .059%
Literally no need to cite Trump in what you typed, but people just can't contain the hate. TDS is real.
Thanks for the heads up.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 07:38 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Thanks for answering this one, Phil. I tend to not be on my computer at home as much as possible, so I just saw this.I had to make up for my earlier mathematical blunder SOMEhow.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-17-2020
(09-17-2020, 10:55 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Phil's a saint.
![[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=11573835]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/bb9f1c89fbc186e3775bad63261677cd/tenor.gif?itemid=11573835)
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-18-2020
(09-17-2020, 12:11 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Same numbers I keep using. 200K deaths. 6.61M infected. 40+% of the 200K deaths from nursing homes. 325M US population. Covid deaths by age. See link. And now I can do percentages!!!! I feel so powerful!! lol. Thanks PhilHos!!
If you're using the same numbers as John Hopkins why is their number 3% and your number is .75%?
Quote:https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
If 50K perfectly healthy, but infected people die out of the 6.61M infected people, that is a mortality rate of .0075 or .75%.
Where are you getting that number?
Also from the place of death table from your link: inpatient healthcare setting 118,222, nursing home/long term care facility 39,010.
Total Covid deaths: 182,095.
Do the percentages for me.
Also, after looking it up your 40% claim includes residents and staff. Do you have a source that separates those two groups?
Quote:I'm pretty sure 25% of all Covid deaths were not perfectly healthy, but infected individuals. Credit to PhilHos for the math lesson!
So you're pretty sure 25% of Covid deaths were infected with Covid? That's a bold statement. Would you say that 25% of cancer deaths are due to cancer?
Quote:I will ask again, you think we should be locked down and crushing our economy, hurting 10's of millions of people and causing untold ancillary damage that could possibly reverberate for years or decades to come for a mortality rate of healthy, infected individuals of realistically .3-.5%?
And total Covid deaths across the USA = .059%
Literally no need to cite Trump in what you typed, but people just can't contain the hate. TDS is real.
Thanks for the heads up.
I didn't call for lockdowns. I stated we probably could have avoided them if we did basic mitigation strategies like wearing face coverings like the CDC recommended.
TDS is real, but not how you think. If you have to explain Trump really didn't mean what he said about disinfectant injections then you deranged because of Trump.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-18-2020
(09-18-2020, 03:59 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: If you're using the same numbers as John Hopkins why is their number 3% and your number is .75%?I have some things going on tonight and I will reply when I get a chance, but let me just say this.
Where are you getting that number?
Also from the place of death table from your link: inpatient healthcare setting 118,222, nursing home/long term care facility 39,010.
Total Covid deaths: 182,095.
Do the percentages for me.
Also, after looking it up your 40% claim includes residents and staff. Do you have a source that separates those two groups?
So you're pretty sure 25% of Covid deaths were infected with Covid? That's a bold statement. Would you say that 25% of cancer deaths are due to cancer?
I didn't call for lockdowns. I stated we probably could have avoided them if we did basic mitigation strategies like wearing face coverings like the CDC recommended.
TDS is real, but not how you think. If you have to explain Trump really didn't mean what he said about disinfectant injections then you deranged because of Trump.
I want to apologize for the TDS comment. I always try to keep it civil and that was uncalled for and un-productive.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-18-2020
I you get a minute, watch this video. You had asked about the ancillary harms of the lock downs. The whole video is not about that, but it is a real person experiencing some of those harms and the students she sees effected by the lock downs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41112PCse8g&pp=QAA%3D
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - GMDino - 09-21-2020
This is, how you say, not comforting. https://t.co/bgHQvPM5zH pic.twitter.com/ctUWwNfu8f
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) September 21, 2020
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-21-2020
(09-18-2020, 07:37 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I you get a minute, watch this video. You had asked about the ancillary harms of the lock downs. The whole video is not about that, but it is a real person experiencing some of those harms and the students she sees effected by the lock downs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41112PCse8g&pp=QAA%3D
1) That 17 y/o's murder had nothing to do with Covid.
2) Turning a student's murder into a rant on Covid is a pretty shitty thing to do.
3) The city council doesn't decide the Minneapolis public schools' response to Covid. The board of education does. If that principle wants to rant against someone at least rant against the right people.
4) The school district is responsible for the students. Not the law breakers or law enforcement. She's rambling.
So the ancillary harms is kids can't work out? That's odd because the school districts around here are holding fall sports which means kids can work out.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - michaelsean - 09-21-2020
(09-21-2020, 11:35 AM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: 1) That 17 y/o's murder had nothing to do with Covid.
2) Turning a student's murder into a rant on Covid is a pretty shitty thing to do.
3) The city council doesn't decide the Minneapolis public schools' response to Covid. The board of education does. If that principle wants to rant against someone at least rant against the right people.
4) The school district is responsible for the students. Not the law breakers or law enforcement. She's rambling.
So the ancillary harms is kids can't work out? That's odd because the school districts around here are holding fall sports which means kids can work out.
Principal is your pal.
I always wanted to be able to use that one.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-21-2020
(09-17-2020, 10:45 AM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I never said you did. I was trying to restate my position more clearly.
Cool. So how do you get people to wear a mask when they refuse to do it of their own accord?
Quote:Just Google man! And I thought I wrote 3 paragraphs on it.
Why should I do your work for you? You're the one suggesting the ancillary harms could be worse than the death count. It's not my job to make your point for you.
Quote:Context bro. While it is awful that anyone has died from Covid, the fact is that a huge majority of deaths are elderly or elderly with comorbitities. And over 40% of the deaths were from elderly in nursing homes. They were end of life or close to it already. We are talking about 10's of millions of healthy people who have lots of life left. We are talking about business owners, employees, kids.
So a 20 y/o losing a job is worse than a 65 y/o dying? Or a 20 y/o losing a job is worse than a 20 y/o with asthma dying of Covid?
Quote:I didn't say there was no evidence for locking down. I said at this point in time we are causing more harm by the lock downs than the lives that are being saved by it.
You didn't? Then what did you mean by this . . .
(09-16-2020, 02:04 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I also have not seen any hard evidence that shows lock downs help.
Quote:https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/05/27/coronavirus-lockdown-costing-more-lives-its-saving-14815
https://kmph.com/news/nation-world/letter-from-doctors-calls-on-president-trump-to-end-lockdown
Your first link isn't counting lives lost. It's counting hours lost. Which means all deaths aren't created equal because all lives aren't created equal. It other words. Your 9 y/o's life is more valuable than your 12 y/o's life. Are you willing to look your 12 y/o in the eye and tell him their sibling's life is more valuable?
Most of the conditions they are complaining about in your second source and used for that study aren't even in effect anymore, such as deferred cancer screening. Most of the doctor's complaints haven't been in effect since May and are no longer applicable. Which means their conclusion based upon conditions that no longer apply aren't applicable, either. If you need any sort of cancer screening here you can get it, but if you work at a restaurant you have to wear a face covering. Oh, boo freakin' hoo! Do you know why restaurant workers have to wear a face covering? For the same reason a guy working in IT at a hospital with zero patient contact has to wear one. Are you going to die from wearing a face covering? No, you're not. But, you just might save a life by wearing one by not infected someone else directly or indirectly.
Quote:https://www.city-journal.org/child-abuse-covid-19-lockdown
I asked for evidence to support your claim of increased prevalence of child abuse. This source does nothing to support your claim. The only thing that article identifies is a 50% decrease in child abuse reports in two states suggesting it is because students aren't in school. But, it also identifies teaches account for 20% of reports which wouldn't explain the 50% decrease. It also identified "some" hospitals have reports increased cases of child abuse without any statistics to support your claim. At best, you have speculation to support your speculation.
Quote:They also didn't impose lockdowns and 102 years ago is a completely different time with completely different tech.
And there were approximately 675,000 deaths in America over a 2 year period. We have almost 1/3rd the total deaths in 1/4th of the time span.
Quote:"helped spread the disease". See: "peaceful protests" that are A OK, with CNN and MSNBC. The best was on the same day CNN was hammering Trump for some gathering (not rally) with optional masks and social distancing, CNN was also showing coverage and praising thousands having a legit peaceful protest (I forget where) with optional masks and little social distancing. I mean the hypocrisy is just absolutely astounding at this point. How about Gov. Cuomo going off on a normal citizen because normal citizen called Cuomo out in real time for violating his own mask mandate and rhetoric. Rules for thee, not for me! See: Nancy "Blowout" Pelosi. It's bad on both sides.
Those peaceful protestors are doing exactly what you suggest. You don't get to suggest doing away with masks or masks mandates and opening everything up then complain about people not wearing masks and acting like everything is normal.
Quote:I guess I will have to show my dumbness again. We are at 200K after 7 months of mostly Elderly and elderly with comorbitities. How did we get to 9M again? And the mortality rate of healthy, infected individuals is far less than 1%.
This is an infectious disease which no one has immunity to it. So everyone is at risk of getting it. With a case fatality rate of 3% and a population of 325M who are susceptible that gives you 9M deaths without mitigation strategies.
It's like figuring out how many miles you can drive with a 17 gallon gas tank and truck that gets 21 mpg highway.
Quote:I have offered fear mongering? By saying we should open because Covid and the stats, imo, don't warrant a lockdown and it's not as bad as the media is making it out to be and the ancillary harms could potentially be worse than Covid in the end? That's fear mongering???? Lie about ancillary harms being a Dem hoax? I'm just giving my opinion.
Claiming the ancillary harms are worse than the lives lost without evidence is pretty much the definition of fear mongering.
Quote:If you subtract the 40%+ nursing home deaths brought on by the incompetent Dem governors you are pretty close to that number after 7 months of Covid.
From the CDC source you provided, those numbers are also unsupported and the 40% number includes residents and staff without separating the two or identifying age groups or comorbidities to actually fact check it.
Quote:Sorry. I guess I am just a big , stupid uneducated dumb dumb.
You know a helluva lot more than I do about IT. You just don't know the first thing about masks. Therefore, you shouldn't be handing out advice about who, when, what, where, or why about masks on a national level.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-21-2020
(09-21-2020, 12:43 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Principal is your pal.
LOL
Makin' wishes come true. Just like the state trooper . . .
https://jokesoftheday.com/the-state-trooper-makes-a-mans-wish-come-true/
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - bfine32 - 09-21-2020
Can we trust the CDC?
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/coronavirus-update-cdc-changes-then-deletes-new-guidance-on-airborne-transmission-164441858.html
Quote:The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday sowed confusion over its stance on the airborne transmission of the coronavirus, by publishing — and then removing — new guidance that suggested the virus can spread beyond the 6-foot parameter that’s become commonly accepted in social distancing policy.
The agency pulled the new guidance, which marked a significant shift in understanding of how the virus has spread. Previously, the CDC said the virus spread through direct exposure and inhalation of droplets only within about six feet of another person.