+- Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise (http://thebengalsboard.com)
+-- Forum: Off Topic Forums (http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Off-Topic-Forums)
+--- Forum: Politics & Religion 2.0 (http://thebengalsboard.com/Forum-Politics-Religion-2-0)
+--- Thread: 2020 Election (/Thread-2020-Election)
Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
RE: 2020 Election - bfine32 - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 09:31 AM)michaelsean Wrote: PA is only at 64% counted. My guess is that could easily flip to Biden. Then I think he just needs NV and WI. Of course all this just comes from looking at a map in my phone so...
Can't expect folks to find time to riot and vote.
My take:
POTUS is closer than folks thought. Going to need someone to explain to me how polls are right again
House is no surprise
Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
It's a shame in the year of 2020 we cannot do an election in a timely manner.
RE: 2020 Election - michaelsean - 11-04-2020
I’ll be honest that I’m not a big fan of mail in ballots received after Election Day unless they were post marked like a week before. You’ve had two months.
RE: 2020 Election - Au165 - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:07 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I’ll be honest that I’m not a big fan of mail in ballots received after Election Day unless they were post marked like a week before. You’ve had two months.
That isn't what is holding things up currently. The issue currently is they weren't allowed to start counting until election day due to recent legislation passed. This has created backlogs in the midwest states that most people are waiting on.
RE: 2020 Election - Nately120 - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:05 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Can't expect folks to find time to riot and vote.
My take:
POTUS is closer than folks thought. Going to need someone to explain to me how polls are right again
House is no surprise
Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
It's a shame in the year of 2020 we cannot do an election in a timely manner.
I'm thinking being immune to polling is just another of the new aspects Trump has brought to the presidency. There has to be a reason modern polling was right all but once for nearly 60 years and then whiffed twice by a country mile when we had a non-politician wildest of wild cards running.
Basically, if Trump wins this but in 2024 we have two normal politicians running I'm not going to be so sure that polls are no longer applicable so much as the Trump effect will be gone. Just my take.
RE: 2020 Election - CJD - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:09 AM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm thinking being immune to polling is just another of the new aspects Trump has brought to the presidency. There has to be a reason modern polling was right all but once for nearly 60 years and then whiffed twice by a country mile when we had a non-politician wildest of wild cards running.
Basically, if Trump wins this but in 2024 we have two normal politicians running I'm not going to be so sure that polls are no longer applicable so much as the Trump effect will be gone. Just my take.
If Trump wins again, there's no way the Rs wouldn't run a Trump-like candidate.
RE: 2020 Election - michaelsean - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:05 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Can't expect folks to find time to riot and vote.
My take:
POTUS is closer than folks thought. Going to need someone to explain to me how polls are right again
House is no surprise
Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
It's a shame in the year of 2020 we cannot do an election in a timely manner.
The polls were actually correct. If you look at the precinct by precinct breakdown, then divide by two and add seven then subtract the year you were born you get 9% lead for Biden.
RE: 2020 Election - Nately120 - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:11 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: If Trump wins again, there's no way the Rs wouldn't run a Trump-like candidate.
True, I just don't think anyone can quite hit all the myriad of absurd sweet spots like he does. I guess it's possible the republican party becomes the party of the Trump impersonator or Don Jr. runs...hell, I can't rule anything out at this point.
Maybe in 2024 we have a democrat doing a JFK impression running against a republican who copies the Trump playbook.
RE: 2020 Election - KillerGoose - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:05 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Can't expect folks to find time to riot and vote.
My take:
POTUS is closer than folks thought. Going to need someone to explain to me how polls are right again
House is no surprise
Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
It's a shame in the year of 2020 we cannot do an election in a timely manner.
I never saw any polls that were predicting any sort of blowout, just that most polls/data models had Biden winning. Michigan and Wisconsin were both states that were predicted to go blue. With over 90% of the votes counted, they are both blue. If Biden takes those states, the election is essentially over. Biden would just need Nevada, where he is favored to win as well.
Now, is a blowout possible? Yes, for both sides, really. If Trump were to flip Wisconsin and Michigan, keep Georgia and take PA then he would cook Biden. That isn’t incredibly likely, but possible. If Biden wins MI and WI, takes GA (NYT has him at a 64% chance to win) and takes PA, he would also win in a landslide.
Back to your original point, the polls have largely been accurate. The states like Florida where Biden was leading were well within the margin of error, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that those states went red. The toss-up states were NC, FL, GA, AZ and PA. The rest of the states have gone as predicted, and Biden has a favorable outlook in GA and PA.
RE: 2020 Election - michaelsean - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:08 AM)Au165 Wrote: That isn't what is holding things up currently. The issue currently is they weren't allowed to start counting until election day due to recent legislation passed. This has created backlogs in the midwest states that most people are waiting on.
No that’s just a general statement. Nothing about any delays.
RE: 2020 Election - michaelsean - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I never saw any polls that were predicting any sort of blowout, just that most polls/data models had Biden winning. Michigan and Wisconsin were both states that were predicted to go blue. With over 90% of the votes counted, they are both blue. If Biden takes those states, the election is essentially over. Biden would just need Nevada, where he is favored to win as well.
Now, is a blowout possible? Yes, for both sides, really. If Trump were to flip Wisconsin and Michigan, keep Georgia and take PA then he would cook Biden. That isn’t incredibly likely, but possible. If Biden wins MI and WI, takes GA (NYT has him at a 64% chance to win) and takes PA, he would also win in a landslide.
Back to your original point, the polls have largely been accurate. The states like Florida where Biden was leading were well within the margin of error, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that those states went red. The toss-up states were NC, FL, GA, AZ and PA. The rest of the states have gone as predicted, and Biden has a favorable outlook in GA and PA.
Biden had a 9% national lead the last I saw. Unless that came down significantly they will be way off.
RE: 2020 Election - KillerGoose - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:16 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Biden had a 9% national lead the last I saw. Unless that came down significantly they will be way off.
It depends on where you were looking. 538 had him at 8.4%, RealClearPolitics had him at 6.5%, and NBC had him at 7%. There are still plenty of votes to be counted so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden grow his lead, but not by that much. At the end of the day, polls aren’t trying to predict margins of victory, they are just trying to eliminate uncertainty and give a picture of who is favored to win. So far, they have done a good job of that but there are still plenty of votes to be counted.
RE: 2020 Election - PhilHos - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:05 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
Certainly makes a Harris presidency more tolerable, that's for sure.
(11-04-2020, 11:07 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I’ll be honest that I’m not a big fan of mail in ballots received after Election Day unless they were post marked like a week before. You’ve had two months.
Yep. There's absolutely NO reason for your vote to be late unless the USPS screwed up big time.
RE: 2020 Election - michaelsean - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: It depends on where you were looking. 538 had him at 8.4%, RealClearPolitics had him at 6.5%, and NBC had him at 7%. There are still plenty of votes to be counted so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden grow his lead, but not by that much. At the end of the day, polls aren’t trying to predict margins of victory, they are just trying to eliminate uncertainty and give a picture of who is favored to win. So far, they have done a good job of that but there are still plenty of votes to be counted.
That’s true. We will have to see where it settles after all the mail ins.
RE: 2020 Election - BmorePat87 - 11-04-2020
Biden has passed Obama's 2008 popular vote total. He now has received more individual votes to be president in a single election than any other candidate in US history, but he could still lose.
Right now he leads in the states he needs: NV, AZ, MI, and WI. PA and GA would be bonus if he takes the lead but are not required.
RE: 2020 Election - Belsnickel - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:31 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Yep. There's absolutely NO reason for your vote to be late unless the USPS screwed up big time.
Well, considering they ignored a court order to sweep their facilities for ballots over the weekend...
RE: 2020 Election - Belsnickel - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:25 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: It depends on where you were looking. 538 had him at 8.4%, RealClearPolitics had him at 6.5%, and NBC had him at 7%. There are still plenty of votes to be counted so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Biden grow his lead, but not by that much. At the end of the day, polls aren’t trying to predict margins of victory, they are just trying to eliminate uncertainty and give a picture of who is favored to win. So far, they have done a good job of that but there are still plenty of votes to be counted.
And that's not even considering the margins of error. Honestly, the polling isn't too far off, just like in 2016. The issue is when people look at those numbers and get over-confident and don't understand the margins that exist in polling data. Does this mean the polls are perfect? Absolutely not. Low response rates have made modern polling extremely difficult, but a lot of the complaints about polling are coming from people who don't really understand it all, anyway.
RE: 2020 Election - bfine32 - 11-04-2020
I know if I were a citizen of PA I'd have another reason to be embarrassed today. I just read where they might not have an answer until next week.
What's so special about them?
RE: 2020 Election - Belsnickel - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:07 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I’ll be honest that I’m not a big fan of mail in ballots received after Election Day unless they were post marked like a week before. You’ve had two months.
Why? One of the big arguments about mail-in voting is that what if something happens on the day before or day of Election Day that could change your vote? If you're voting too early, you may not be making an informed choice. Take my household for instance. All of our ballots were returned before the first debate even took place. I'm a firm believer that if it is postmarked by Election Day, it should be counted. If someone was an undecided voter until the last minute, then so be it.
RE: 2020 Election - Nately120 - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:41 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Why? One of the big arguments about mail-in voting is that what if something happens on the day before or day of Election Day that could change your vote? If you're voting too early, you may not be making an informed choice. Take my household for instance. All of our ballots were returned before the first debate even took place. I'm a firm believer that if it is postmarked by Election Day, it should be counted. If someone was an undecided voter until the last minute, then so be it.
I know I flip flopped a bit after the first debate and then back after the 3rd and so on. I certainly wasn't decided months ago. I even, accidentally I swear, convinced a friend of mine to vote for Jorgensen while he was on the way to vote yesterday. You're welcome, Trump. We are in PA...I'm the new face of evil.
RE: 2020 Election - Sociopathicsteelerfan - 11-04-2020
(11-04-2020, 11:05 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Can't expect folks to find time to riot and vote.
My take:
POTUS is closer than folks thought. Going to need someone to explain to me how polls are right again
House is no surprise
Senate looks like the GOP will hang onto it. That's by far the most important thing to me.
It's a shame in the year of 2020 we cannot do an election in a timely manner.
The Senate was by far my biggest concern as well. Putting the breaks on the most excessive far left agenda items will be of paramount importance. I think the biggest lesson coming out of this election is that Hispanics are far from a guaranteed Dem vote. This will be of extreme importance going forward.