2020 Election

[BmorePat87]

Trump tweeted that he plans on declaring victory tonight and made references to Democrats stealing the election by counting mail ballots after the “poles” closed.

This is incredibly dangerous and irresponsible for the president to do. Ballots mailed today are valid.

[Dill]

(11-04-2020, 12:07 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Yeah, it's early but it's starting to seem like Trump is just immune to polling.  If he wins this it'll be interesting to see if polling is just no longer applicable, or if it's just something Trump managed to throw way off.

I know it hain't over yet, but Biden's inability to take any Trump states thus far doesn't bode well for him.

I'm noticing that in many rural counties of Georgia, PA and Wisconsin, Trump turnout is higher than 2016.  

Quite possible there is a blind spot to current polling, despite all the efforts to fix that.

From the NYT election map, I don't see where the Biden can pull enough remaining votes in Wisconsin.

At 1:02 am, PA looking like a strong red mirage. Mail in ballots will kick in tomorrow.

[Dill]

(11-04-2020, 02:55 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Trump tweeted that he plans on declaring victory tonight and made references to Democrats stealing the election by counting mail ballots after the “poles” closed.

This is incredibly dangerous and irresponsible for the president to do. Ballots mailed today are valid.

We've been talking "dangerous and irresponsible" all day.

But not enough American voters care.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-04-2020, 02:55 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Trump tweeted that he plans on declaring victory tonight and made references to Democrats stealing the election by counting mail ballots after the “poles” closed.

This is incredibly dangerous and irresponsible for the president to do. Ballots mailed today are valid.

Reminds me of why I don’t want him to win. Just can’t do that.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-04-2020, 01:42 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Ain’t gonna know shit until tomorrow at the earliest. Larger populated areas still underreported in PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The latter two won’t have final counts until tomorrow. PA may not have counts until Friday.

Comes down to them and Arizona. Biden needs to keep Clinton states and take PA and 2 of the 3.

Don’t they have most of Pittsburgh? That should go big Biden.

I found out I feel disgusted when Trump looks strong and I feel sick when Biden looks strong. I’ve disconnected a lot from national politics and maybe that’s irresponsible on some level, but I’m a happier person. I want peace in my life, and that shit show in DC is the anti-peace.

[Belsnickel]

(11-04-2020, 04:18 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Don’t they have most of Pittsburgh? That should go big Biden.

I found out I feel disgusted when Trump looks strong and I feel sick when Biden looks strong. I’ve disconnected a lot from national politics and maybe that’s irresponsible on some level, but I’m a happier person. I want peace in my life, and that shit show in DC is the anti-peace.

Last night I only watched the results in my city. I focused in hard on the city council race and ignored (for the most part) national election coverage. I had a much less stressful night than in past elections.

[Belsnickel]

One thing that I keep looking at with these maps is that every race left to be decided is very close right now. All of them really hang on mail-in ballots, which favor Biden and other Democrats, heavily. Will it be enough, though, to swing the tide in some of these states? If not, we are going to see another instance of an EC victory without a popular vote victory. However, this one could be unique. Based on current vote totals and percentages, if the trend remains and Trump wins the EC, it could possibly be with Biden having the majority of the popular vote, and not just the plurality.

[hollodero]

(11-04-2020, 07:39 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Last night I only watched the results in my city. I focused in hard on the city council race and ignored (for the most part) national election coverage. I had a much less stressful night than in past elections.

How did the city council race turn out?

[fredtoast]

I didn't watch anything last night because I knew nothing would be final til this morning.

From the results I see posted it looks like Trump wins.

But what is this about mail in ballots not even being counted yet?

[CKwi88]

(11-04-2020, 08:43 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I didn't watch anything last night because I knew nothing would be final til this morning.

From the results I see posted it looks like Trump wins.

But what is this about mail in ballots not even being counted yet?

Some of the outstanding states could not start counting those votes until Tuesday. There are so many that they haven't been able to count them yet. Trump is going to want states to stop counting because such votes lean (sometimes quite a bit) Biden.

[Belsnickel]

(11-04-2020, 08:09 AM)hollodero Wrote: How did the city council race turn out?

We had an election for three of the five seats with two incumbents running. One incumbent is a Democrat, the other is an "independent," which I put in quotation marks because he is really a Republican. We had two other Democrats running and a Republican. The Republican is a Q-Anon supporting doctor.

The two incumbents and one other Democrat won after seeing the "red mirage" until the absentee ballots were counted. I dislike the "independent" incumbent because he just literally has no idea what he is doing and is a drunk. He used to be our local meteorologist and just wins on name recognition. But at least we avoided putting the Q-Anon lady on council.

[*Nately120*]

(11-04-2020, 08:58 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: We had an election for three of the five seats with two incumbents running. One incumbent is a Democrat, the other is an "independent," which I put in quotation marks because he is really a Republican. We had two other Democrats running and a Republican. The Republican is a Q-Anon supporting doctor.

The two incumbents and one other Democrat won after seeing the "red mirage" until the absentee ballots were counted. I dislike the "independent" incumbent because he just literally has no idea what he is doing and is a drunk. He used to be our local meteorologist and just wins on name recognition. But at least we avoided putting the Q-Anon lady on council.

Wow what a cast of characters.  I wanna get into politics now. 

[Goalpost]

So my general vibe is that things favor Biden right now. The House will stay Democratic. The Senate is a bit murkier but likely to remain Republican.

[*michaelsean*]

(11-04-2020, 08:43 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I didn't watch anything last night because I knew nothing would be final til this morning.

From the results I see posted it looks like Trump wins.

But what is this about mail in ballots not even being counted yet?

PA is only at 64% counted. My guess is that could easily flip to Biden. Then I think he just needs NV and WI. Of course all this just comes from looking at a map in my phone so...

[hollodero]

(11-04-2020, 08:58 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: We had an election for three of the five seats with two incumbents running. One incumbent is a Democrat, the other is an "independent," which I put in quotation marks because he is really a Republican. We had two other Democrats running and a Republican. The Republican is a Q-Anon supporting doctor.

The two incumbents and one other Democrat won after seeing the "red mirage" until the absentee ballots were counted. I dislike the "independent" incumbent because he just literally has no idea what he is doing and is a drunk. He used to be our local meteorologist and just wins on name recognition. But at least we avoided putting the Q-Anon lady on council.

Oh my. For one I'm glad sophisticated and rational people like you get engaged, but there's no sugercoating, that overall picture sounds rather horrifying.
The QAnon candidate alone. Apparently they show up in quite a lot of elections these days and you got one in Congress now. QAnon. Jeez. If at least it only were drunk celebrities.

- Who holds the other two seats?

[Belsnickel]

(11-04-2020, 10:17 AM)hollodero Wrote: Oh my. For one I'm glad sophisticated and rational people like you get engaged, but there's no sugercoating, that overall picture sounds rather horrifying.
The QAnon candidate alone. Apparently they show up in quite a lot of elections these days and you got one in Congress now. QAnon. Jeez. If at least it only were drunk celebrities.

- Who holds the other two seats?

Two Democrats. The city is heavily Democrat leaning which is why the only non-Democrat on the council is an "independent" with name recognition. We used to have some good Republicans on the council, too, but the city's GOP has been a shit show for a few years.

[Big Boss]

(11-04-2020, 09:31 AM)michaelsean Wrote: PA is only at 64% counted. My guess is that could easily flip to Biden.  Then I think he just needs NV and WI.  Of course all this just comes from looking at a map in my phone so...

Trump's already called for a halt on counting mail-ins and has indicated he will go to the Supreme Court (Republican-heavy, with 2 Trump appointees).  So any flips for Biden over the next couple of days are going to be contested.  

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(11-04-2020, 09:31 AM)michaelsean Wrote: PA is only at 64% counted. My guess is that could easily flip to Biden. Then I think he just needs NV and WI. Of course all this just comes from looking at a map in my phone so...

Went to bed myself at 11:30; indeed, looks like PA will be blue, which is a boon (if the mail-ins are counted).

'zona and NV should be blue as well and from what I gathered, it will be a toss-up between Wisconsin and Mchigan.

My own personal thoughts on the numbers and ballots, Biden will take Wisconsin, but lose Michigan. What would come into play at that point then, Maine?

How is not all of the Northeast Blue?

[Au165]

(11-04-2020, 10:45 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Went to bed myself at 11:30; indeed, looks like PA will be blue, which is a boon.

'zona and NV should be blue as well and from what I gathered, it will be a toss-up between Wisconsin and Mchigan.

My own personal thoughts on the numbers and ballots, Biden will take Wisconsin, but lose Michigan. What would come into play at that point then, Maine?

How is not all of the Northeast Blue?

Michigan now looks to be going Biden as there are still apparently 360k votes to be counted in Wane county with a VERY favorable lean Democrat. 

[KillerGoose]

(11-04-2020, 10:46 AM)Au165 Wrote: Michigan now looks to be going Biden as there are still apparently 360k votes to be counted in Wane county with a VERY favorable lean Democrat. 

538 had Michigan and Wisconsin as near locks for Biden (>95% to win the state.) it was supposed to be tighter in Arizona, so Biden winning Arizona is huge because it kind of makes PA irrelevant if he wins MI, WI and NV.

Georgia is also still very much in play. In fact, the NYT has flipped and are now giving Biden a 64% chance to win Georgia. There are a significant amount of votes in the Atlanta area that are outstanding, which could flip the state.