2020 Presidential Election

[Benton]

(03-02-2020, 04:34 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yep.

I really hope that Bloomberg and Warren drop, because then we can avoid the whole brokered convention thing and the people can legitimately select the nominee they want to run against Trump.

It'll also completely remove the "Bernie got ******" narrative that really created some issues in 2016.

But I doubt either one will drop in the next 24 hours.

Bloomberg will stay in. I'm expecting Warren to drop after Tuesday. The only question will be who she expressed support for.

[Bengalsrob]

(02-24-2020, 07:09 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I went to the Buttigieg rally in VA yesterday. Just outside of DC.

Pretty great experience. Over 7,000 there. It's easy to see how he appeals to such a broad base after hearing him speak.

Trouble is, in the "debates" he rarely gets to speak. Anybody who downs Trump (about 85% on here) needs to watch the Democratic debates. One guy trying to speak while most of the rest are yelling and waving their hands like first graders who would be getting an extra recess if called upon. And Trump is crazy? Perhaps but besides this young man most of the rest and especially the front-runners are as bad if not worse. Trump against coal? Sanders against fracking which would eliminate good-paying jobs in Northern Pennsylvania, which he will replace with high-paying jobs but no one knows what they are. Pathetic crew if you want to win the election. And now this kid and the woman from Michigan have gave up. That leaves Hillary2.0 (Warren), The Socialist (Sanders), the guy they SHOULD have run last time who seems to have lost some of his appeal (Biden) and the biggest idiot of them all imo, Bloomberg as the ones who could get the nomination. You guys have plenty to worry about on your own home front, time to leave Trump alone until you get a nominee, tomorrow should be interesting to say the least.

[CJD]

(03-03-2020, 01:25 AM)Bengalsrob Wrote: Trouble is, in the "debates" he rarely gets to speak. Anybody who downs Trump (about 85% on here) needs to watch the Democratic debates. One guy trying to speak while most of the rest are yelling and waving their hands like first graders who would be getting an extra recess if called upon. And Trump is crazy? Perhaps but besides this young man most of the rest and especially the front-runners are as bad if not worse. Trump against coal? Sanders against fracking which would eliminate good-paying jobs in Northern Pennsylvania, which he will replace with high-paying jobs but no one knows what they are. Pathetic crew if you want to win the election. And now this kid and the woman from Michigan have gave up. That leaves Hillary2.0 (Warren), The Socialist (Sanders), the guy they SHOULD have run last time who seems to have lost some of his appeal (Biden) and the biggest idiot of them all imo, Bloomberg as the ones who could get the nomination. You guys have plenty to worry about on your own home front, time to leave Trump alone until you get a nominee, tomorrow should be interesting to say the least.

You calling Elizabeth Hillary 2.0 betrays your true reason for hating Hillary, as they only have one similarity.

Next time, try a little harder not to say the quiet part out loud.

[Belsnickel]

These Bloomberg ads about "it's time to vote" are pissing me off. They are just making me dislike some celebrities because of their shilling for the rich asshole.

[BmorePat87]

(03-02-2020, 12:49 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/buttigieg-dropping-out-of-presidential-race-118489

Interesting turn of events.

I'm curious why he chose to drop out before Super Tuesday.

Saw he wasn't going to win enough and didn't want to draw away from Biden

[CJD]

(03-03-2020, 09:48 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Saw he wasn't going to win enough and didn't want to draw away from Biden

What do you think Biden offered him?

I think Biden/Buttigieg ticket would be interesting. Although, it'd be kind of the moderate version of a Sanders/Warren ticket (they both share virtually the same support base, with a few relatively small outliers).

But maybe he'd be a better fit as a secretary of state or maybe another cabinet position for Biden's first term. I'm not sure.

[GMDino]

I was at my chiropractor yesterday and normally he meets me in the hallway and we go into the room together but this time he in there waiting for me so the lady who works there took me back.  I joked as she opened the door "I hope he's dressed!" He's uber-religious and he laughed...then he said "I'm not the mayor from Indiana!  Good thing he dropped out or we'd have what, a first husband? Putin wouldn't like that!" And he laughed again and I sighed and got beat up so my back and neck didn't hurt...

[hollodero]

(03-02-2020, 11:25 PM)Benton Wrote: Bloomberg will stay in.

What irony though. Didn't he enter to avoid a Sanders nomination that would elect Trump?

And now his staying in does exactly what he said he feared: It helps Sanders.

[BmorePat87]

(03-03-2020, 10:05 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: What do you think Biden offered him?

I think Biden/Buttigieg ticket would be interesting. Although, it'd be kind of the moderate version of a Sanders/Warren ticket (they both share virtually the same support base, with a few relatively small outliers).

But maybe he'd be a better fit as a secretary of state or maybe another cabinet position for Biden's first term. I'm not sure.

Biden said yesterday that he would like to see Pete in his administration. 

HUD for 2 years, State for 2 years, then Pete runs in 2024 (Biden declines to run for reelection). 

[CJD]

(03-03-2020, 01:35 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Biden said yesterday that he would like to see Pete in his administration. 

HUD for 2 years, State for 2 years, then Pete runs in 2024 (Biden declines to run for reelection). 

What do you think happens over these next 4 years that will make him more suitable to be President? Do you believe that inexperience in federal executive structures was his biggest issue holding him back from the nomination?

[BmorePat87]

(03-03-2020, 03:52 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: What do you think happens over these next 4 years that will make him more suitable to be President? Do you believe that inexperience in federal executive structures was his biggest issue holding him back from the nomination?

I thought he was plenty suitable, but I think lack of national exposure (not necessarily federal) was what hurt him. He started as a nobody. People are okay with less federal experience (Stacey Abrams being a big VP suggestion) but you have to be a known quantity. 

Let Pete run HUD and work with the administration to enact his Douglass Plan (which in response to him dropping out, Stacey Abrams commended and said needs to be part of the platform for whoever becomes the nominee). Experience running a department and then working with the major cities in the nation would then set him up to use his veteran and executive experience to run the State department.

Then he has undeniable domestic and foreign experience along with that name recogntion. 

[CJD]

Welp...

I hope Biden doesn't **** up too bad in the debates with Trump.

Cuz he seems to have the inside track for the nomination at this point.

[Goalpost]

(03-04-2020, 08:45 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Welp...

I hope Biden doesn't **** up too bad in the debates with Trump.

Cuz he seems to have the inside track for the nomination at this point.

Yea.  I think Bernie had some missteps. He still cant explain his bottom line costs of his programs.  And while the Dems want his voting block, his debate and ideology of explaining Castro turned a few stomachs.  I really don't think Joe did much.  He had several gaffes this week but was saved by several endorsements, Clyburn in particular, as well as some candidates who dropped out.

[CJD]

(03-04-2020, 09:27 AM)Goalpost Wrote: Yea.  I think Bernie had some missteps. He still cant explain his bottom line costs of his programs.  And while the Dems want his voting block, his debate and ideology of explaining Castro turned a few stomachs.  I really don't think Joe did much.  He had several gaffes this week but was saved by several endorsements, Clyburn in particular, as well as some candidates who dropped out.

Well, Bernie explained every single cost for his programs. People just can't agree with what the cost actually is. He based his costs off of the 17.1 trillion over 10 years for Medicare for All, but moderates have quoted 34 trillion as the number he needs to get to.

Who is right? I have no idea. I think Bernie is taking the best case scenario and the moderates are taking the worst case scenario. It'll probably cost somewhere in between.

But I think what Bernie should have done was meet their high number on Medicare for all and put aside his other programs for the time being. As you can see in the infographic below, his taxes and programs will generate more than enough for even the worst case scenario M4A plan, but then he wouldn't be able to pay for all the other programs he wants to (his current plans account for about 40.5 trillion dollars over 10 years).



Basically, in a world where you have to pick what program means the most to you (with healthcare and climate change being the big haulers), Bernie wanted it all. And that may have been his downfall.

As far as Biden goes, I see him continuing to gaffe it up all year and then, in November, the democratic voter base is just...numb. And he loses to Trump. Probably will win the popular vote though.

[BmorePat87]

(03-04-2020, 09:41 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, Bernie explained every single cost for his programs. People just can't agree with what the cost actually is. He based his costs off of the 17.1 trillion over 10 years for Medicare for All, but moderates have quoted 34 trillion as the number he needs to get to.

Who is right? I have no idea. I think Bernie is taking the best case scenario and the moderates are taking the worst case scenario. It'll probably cost somewhere in between.

But I think what Bernie should have done was meet their high number on Medicare for all and put aside his other programs for the time being. As you can see in the infographic below, his taxes and programs will generate more than enough for even the worst case scenario M4A plan, but then he wouldn't be able to pay for all the other programs he wants to (his current plans account for about 40.5 trillion dollars over 10 years).



Basically, in a world where you have to pick what program means the most to you (with healthcare and climate change being the big haulers), Bernie wanted it all. And that may have been his downfall.

As far as Biden goes, I see him continuing to gaffe it up all year and then, in November, the democratic voter base is just...numb. And he loses to Trump. Probably will win the popular vote though.

All numbers are presented over 10 years in this post:

The numbers don't work out. For a long time, Bernie cited $30t as the low end cost of his plan (others say $34-40t). This recent study (written by a campaign advisor) quotes $17t (all of these numbers so far are "in additional spending") with total costs being $47t in national healthcare spending.

Bernie is suggesting that all federal healthcare spending ($30t) be merged with this $17t in new revenue, but that $30t goes to just more than healthcare. It's also funding things like the CDC and NIH. The $17t additional price tag also doesn't take into account the $2.5t long term care program and assumes hospital reimbursement cuts that are not part of Bernie's plan. 

Bernie has always been hesitant to fully explain spending and exit polling last night showed that Biden actually won voters whose primary issue was health care.

[CJD]

(03-04-2020, 10:09 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: All numbers are presented over 10 years in this post:

The numbers don't work out. For a long time, Bernie cited $30t as the low end cost of his plan (others say $34-40t). This recent study (written by a campaign advisor) quotes $17t (all of these numbers so far are "in additional spending") with total costs being $47t in national healthcare spending.

Bernie is suggesting that all federal healthcare spending ($30t) be merged with this $17t in new revenue, but that $30t goes to just more than healthcare. It's also funding things like the CDC and NIH. The $17t additional price tag also doesn't take into account the $2.5t long term care program and assumes hospital reimbursement cuts that are not part of Bernie's plan. 

Bernie has always been hesitant to fully explain spending and exit polling last night showed that Biden actually won voters whose primary issue was health care.

Which is very odd because not a single person is demanding Biden explain a single one of his policies. I have no idea what Biden's healthcare plan. Even his own website is light on details.

The only thing he's said about his healthcare plan in debates was "My plan makes a limit of co-pays to be $1,000."

What does that mean? You got me. Was he talking about deductible? Max Out of Pocket? Or did he actually mean co-pay? In which case, that's not a thing people care about because co-pays rarely (or maybe never) reach $1,000...

I think people just fear change. they've been convinced that insurance companies are somehow not bad for us as a country and are unwilling to risk what they consider a non-life threatening system (even though it is) for a chance at an exceptional system.

But Biden is better than Trump, so it's a start, I guess.

[Belsnickel]

This is a good page to look at for forecasting. It is frozen based on the Klobuchar departure. Once final Super Tuesday results are in it will be updated, again.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Turns out that building a campaign off catering to the age group that always fails to show up to the polls in numbers is not a recipe for success.

Who would have guessed?

[*michaelsean*]

Can someone help me with the student debt thing? Is that just current student debt? Are people in the future still going to have debt? Does it matter if you went public or private? Is there a cap or do people who went to Harvard or Stanford get their debt wiped out the same as someone who went to a state school?

[CJD]

(03-04-2020, 10:52 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Can someone help me with the student debt thing?  Is that just current student debt?  Are people in the future still going to have debt?  Does it matter if you went public or private?  Is there a cap or do people who went to Harvard or Stanford get their debt wiped out the same as someone who went to a state school?

1.6 trillion to cancel all current student debt. 600 billion to make public colleges free again.

I don't think anyone is suggesting doing anything regarding private colleges, but I'm not positive. I believe Bernie only worries about public colleges and their cost.