03-07-2022, 02:28 PM
(03-07-2022, 12:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, but it is true.
Last year only 6 players taken in the second half of the first round started as many as 8 games. And only a total of 9 players taken in the second round. Those numbers are about the same every year.
When we were picking in the top half of the first round every year you could hope for e decent starter as a rookie. But at 31 not so much.
It could happen, (see: Higgins) but I would not want to depend on it.
That’s not what teams expect when they take those guys, from injuries (especially last year lots of injuries to back half) maturity to other issues it may occur but the expectations are exactly as I laid out above from an NFL scout. It’s how they operate in terms of looking at how they address needs and project production when thinking about FA and draft entering an off season and even projecting out multiple years.
Side note, be careful with “starts” as a start is considered first snap but if your the slot corner or the 3rd WR and you come out in base personnel you don’t get a “start”. Jason Kelce came out and played the first snap in week 18 to keep a streak alive then left the field and got a start. Snap share is probably a better metric. Jalen Phillips in Miami for example only “started” 5 games but took the second post snaps on the team at DE so he probably was more of the “starter” than the starts would say but I think they had another DE who took heavy package snaps.
