10-25-2023, 03:03 PM
(10-25-2023, 02:52 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Also, polling right now, especially national level polling, is worthless. We all know that I defend polling and the statistics behind it, but the methodology is important. Polls at this point in the game don't mean anything because there are sooooooooo many people who are not paying attention to any of the noise about the candidates right now. In addition, there is more than a year between now and election day. So many things can happen. Hell, given the way things are going, we may be in a nuclear winter by then and elections will be meaningless!
Right now people are wondering if the right did too much to platform RFK and if he's going to hurt them more than Biden. Maybe he drops out, maybe he runs, maybe this and maybe that. The 2024 election seems like a crap shoot (if not crap chute) and we can sit here and talk about policy all we want but perception and the turnout of unlikely voters in key states is likely to have a bigger impact than that.
That and Biden and Trump could be dead or incapacitated etc by 2024 and it wouldn't be surprising. I think if Trump were out of the race today for some reason Biden would start a "hand the baton to Newsome" campaign, anyways. But overall, it seems like 2024 is just another toss of the dice and maybe that's the way things are from now on or maybe it's just the way things are as long as Trump is involved in things.
After the 2020 midterm was amazingly friendly to democrats while they had absolutely no reason to not get crushed, I'm not seeing how people can just assume Biden being unpopular is enough for people to crawl back to the MAGA GOP. It could happen, but the old school GOP seems way safer of a bet.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
