03-11-2017, 03:44 PM
(03-11-2017, 09:52 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Business may have anticipated these deregulations after the election, so January and February hirings could absolutely be from Trump. They could also just be continued growth from the last few years. Trump is inheriting a good economy and policies that let businesses know that there is less oversight and restriction on them will absolutely cause them to do more.
The other side of the coin would just be, are we deregulating too much? Are jobs worth the potential risks and the hit to the environment?
We'll see. Usually about 18 months is when I'd say a POTUS "owns" that economy. But I've never seen this reaction to an election - they are reacting to policies expected to be enacted, and for that matter the impact/outcome....you just really don't see that. I think businesses are dramatically re-thinking their 3-5 year plans created under a Obama/Clinton outlook. But you don't just flip the switch on an investment, and I'm not hiring people today to run a machine that won't be delivered and installed for 12 months.
Consumer confidence, business confidence, jobs and markets are all pointing toward optimism around more pro-growth policies. There has been a very clear shift in optimism with Trump's election, and when businesses are optimistic about prospects they invest and hire. Mirroring the Obamaconomy isn't going to cut it - we want considerably better growth, jobs (labor participation) and wages.
As for deregulation, tough to say. I do think it's one lever used to favor (or punish) some industries vs. others, along with promoting other agendas/policies. And if you're job is to regulate, then you are going to regulate if you want to continue to get paid - in other words, you'll never meet a regulator who won't say they need more people to find more things to regulate.
One of the few things I've agreed with Trump on I thought was great - for every new regulation, let's eliminate two. Basically help pay for what's needed by getting rid of the wasteful and ineffective.
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