It's Draft Time: Impeachment Edition

[Dill]

(05-12-2017, 02:24 PM)hollodero Wrote: Indirectly? Well... "[R]egardless of recommendation I was going to fire Comey. Knowing, there was no good time to do it. And in fact when I decided to just do it, I said to myself, I said you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story" --- is that really just "indirect"? Seems quite direct to me.

But many Republicans seem to think it's a serious issue, like this Burr character and many others. They wouldn't fall in that group to begin with.
The Breitbart crowd, that's something else. But that can't just be about them.

1. When you look at statements like Trump's, ask yourself what is their potential for conviction, and what is their potential for fogging? In the present context, Low conviction high fog potential here. If Trump really believes the Russia investigation is "made up," then there is no intent to obstruct an investigation. Sure it is bad judgment. But the people knowingly elected someone with bad judgment and sizeable number still stick by their bad judgment--and in consequence so will their Representatives.

If the Russia investigation turns up something like a tape in which Trump discusses reducing sanctions on Russia with a Russian in return for election interference, or one of Trump's does this with Trump's knowledge, that alone is impeachable, and his firing of Comey is no longer innocent stupidity. When he fires him, he knows very well the story is not made up. He intentionally is blocking an investigation into the highest of high crimes. However, given the unstable character of some of Trump's associates--Flynn, Stone, Paige, Mantafort--it is possible that one of these on his own initiative suggested a quid pro quo with Russia. So long as Trump is personally clear of this, he is himself not criminal, just a guy with a political IQ well below 70.

2. Define "many" and which and where placed?  It is likely that as Trump stumbles from one self-inflicted crisis to another, we will see week by week more Republicans willing to call him out, support investigations or maybe even censure. Their numbers could reach a critical mass even before midterm elections, by critical mass I mean enough to vote with Democrats to censure or impeach with some chance of success when the floor of each house is controlled by Trump's party.

3. And yes, it is hardly just about the Breitbart crowd. Though you should not underestimate how many of their ideas have been mainstreamed by Trump's election, held now by people who know nothing about Breitbart.  Fox radio has a daily slate of talk show hosts who beat the drum of "fake news" to an audience of millions.  Driving to Dunkin Donuts today I heard one talk show host talking about the incredible "conspiracy theory" that Russia interfered in our election. (Not the usual suspects Beck or Rush or Hannity or Sullivan or Levin or Hewitt; someone I did not recognize.) Since the Bush fiasco, large numbers of right wingers have been calling themselves "independents" who "criticize both parties"; but, groomed to distrust entire government agencies, they continue to vote right and get their information from the right. They continue to believe Hillary guilty of high crimes for Benghazi (somehow) and a seriously dishonest and flawed character--i.e., still way worse than Trump. For them, all the smoke about Democrats lack of integrity and election butthurt is still even easier to swallow claims about Russian interference. Thus their arguments remain virtually indistinguishable from those of self-identified right wingers.

It is astonishing that, according to one poll, only 54% of Americans think the Comey firing wrong, while 38% think it appropriate.  That is just shy of 40%.  Impeachment or even censure unlikely so long as this holds.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/05/11/poll-majority-americans-dont-think-comey-firing-appropriate/101563558/

That 38% number--that's what you want to watch in the coming months as Trump's missteps continue. Trump's history of missteps may reach a point where right wing pundits can no longer manage them, and Trump's behavior can't just be about the Democrats anymore.