Michael Cohen plea

[Dill]

(08-23-2018, 01:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If Russia was going to interfere in the election they would have been sure to let Trump know all about it.  They would want favors in return.

I have never heard of a lobbyist that has given support to a candidate's attempt to get elected but kept it a secret from the candidate.  Anyone who goes to the trouble of influencing an election will want something in return.

Fred, I think you may be re-imaging a geopolitical relation between global adversaries on the analogy of U.S. political lobbiests and donors trying to influence a candidate with quid pro quo offers. But that is not a good analogy.

You are right that in most cases (though perhaps not all) it would make sense to make a candidate aware of support--especially the candidate will need it again.  If my group provides massive donations and turns out thousands of voters for candidate X, I want him to know what I want him to do.

However, in the case of Russia and U.S. elections, the situation is shaped by very different laws, relations between the players, the quantity and type of resources over which they dispose, and end goals.  The Russians, who cannot directly participate in U.S. elections, have to first of all think of the candidates in terms of Russian national interest as Putin defines it. Hillary would promote democracy and political transparency in Russia, not to mention that she had a superior understanding of international affairs.  She would lock Obama's sanctions in place and likely increase them. She understood the leverage given the U.S. by NATO and the EU economy vis a vis Russia's pitiful alliances and economy and would work to strengthen that. She was as hawkish as she was focused, not easy to play.

Trump, on the other hand, had little focus/impulse control, an admiration for Putin's power to the point of hero worship, and no understanding of international affairs or foreign policy, or law, or the levers of institutional power. He loved praise and attacked any who spoke truth to power, especially the free press. He was susceptible to conspiracy theories and kept many secrets. He responded to a voter base which shared these qualities and for whom he loved to perform. He could be counted on to choose like-mindedness over competence in staffing his cabinet and NSC, and to ignore experienced advisors. Any trained intelligence agent from any country could see what an easy "mark" he would be for psychological pressures and incentives. Events have born this out.  Many voters saw it coming before Trump was elected.

So the point is that it would be risky and unnecessary for Putin to ask Trump for "favors." In addition to leaving a trail of collusion, any claim that Russia put him in office might put Trump off because, as part of his psychological profile, he needs to believe he won the election on his own merits--including the popular vote (if you discount 3-5 million illegal alien voters). "Of course you won on your merits," agrees Putin, controlling his facial expression to reassure his mark (the translator cannot suppress a smirk, though). Just having him in the White House denigrating U.S. allies, whipping up trade wars, undermining his own intel services, and increasing divisions within the U.S. as well, was worth the investment. Far beyond anything reasonably hoped for in 2015. There is no "asking" Trump for favors now; instead there is shaping his foreign policy understanding and actions to favor Russia. You saw at the magnificent Helsinki Summit how Trump responds to Putin suggestions, and then how our own policy experts must work to re-shape Trump's newly implanted Putin ideas and proposals to protect our national interests.

So I just don't see a scenario in which the Russian Ambassador says "We did this for you, now repeal those sanctions."  Rather, I see the Ambassador telling Trump how "Obama was afraid to meet Putin without advisors, and too weak to recognize the Russian appropriation of Crimea. Think of the American jobs that would be created if Exxon were again allowed to drill in Siberia. Your own intel service, who always want to be in the room when we speak, are using the Russian collusion story to take you down," etc.