11-21-2018, 05:17 PM
(11-21-2018, 03:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If I flip a coin 7 times and it lands on heads each time does that mean it is impossible for it to land on tails the next time?
Of course not. In fact, in a very simplistic game of chance, it would be perfectly rational to assume that the next flip could be tails.
However, in a much more complex situation like an NFL playoff game, past results / outcomes can, and should, be reasonably factored in to the equation to surmise future probabilities.
That doesn't mean that anything is guaranteed, only that one outcome -- based on prior evidence -- is more likely than not.
Can "more likely probabilities" be wrong? Of course. However, it would not be at all illogical for one to feel more confident siding with the accumulation of past evidence and results.
