Kim/Trump Summit Disaster

[Dill]

(02-28-2019, 01:04 PM)michaelsean Wrote: Walk me through it.  An impact to who?  I could see the citizens of NK but they are probably told a bunch of BS anyway.  Who are the people/countries who are now thinking, "Trump met with him?  Wow this dude's legit."?  It's like wonks have their own language that nobody else pays attention to.  "This means this, and this means that" and the rest of the world goes on thinking this dude is still a crazy bastard.

That may be the wrong question, Mike. 

Who are the countries now MEETING with Kim face-to-face with all the ceremony of state? (Short answer--China, Russia, SK, Japan (on the table), Singapore, Vietnam.) What usually follows from such meetings is that some NK staff remain behind, and some presence from the other country is introduced into NK, so that direct talks/contacts can continue, secured from third parties. This out-of-sight-and-under-the-table routing of communication is precisely what you don't want, if effective sanctions are the goal.  The fact that the first Summit was in Singapore is also big, as Singapore lifted a number of travel and trade restrictions for a time.  (Add to this the fact that Trump is telling countries in the region to make their own way and stop free-riding on U.S. security. That too is an incentive to set up relations with NK independent of US interests. That is why Japan's Abe wants badly to meet with Kim.)

Putin's trip to Pyongyang is pretty big in this respect, as he is one guy we/the UN would want on the side of strict sanctions enforcement.  Russia's level of enforcement is never going to be 100% percent, but the degree of it is very important.  Since 2016 it has been less and less in their interest to enforce sanctions.  

Here is one policy wonk point--under Obama, level of Russian sanctions led by us and the UN was also always tied to their willingness to enforce sanctions on NK and Iran.  "Linkage" that is called. Violating sanctions against NK enriches Russia and is a thorn in the US eye, but hardly worth the cost if it means more sanctions and stricter enforcement on Russia. 

Under Trump the sanction pressure on Russia is considerably reduced. Congress simply can't run foreign policy; Trump has sent mighty signals he would roll back sanctions on Russia if given a chance. He is not prepared to lead or enforce the current sanctions regime against Russia, if he can help it.  Where, really, is the Russian incentive now to hold to sanctions on NK? 

Maybe I will have time to make some other points later regarding Japan and SK; for now I'll just say wonkdom rightly views Trump's impulsive, "historic first" overture to NK as a developing FP disaster.  It behooves US citizens to understand how their own dear leader is mucking up decades of hard won regional stability.