2020 Presidential Election

[CJD]

(03-10-2020, 12:43 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: It's decent, but we're still a ways off. Also, they used registered voters which isn't as good of a metric as likely voters. But still, it is some good stuff.

Yea, things could obviously change. I have basically no faith in Biden actually performing well in debates against Trump, so that could make people vote for Trump (or just not vote at all) if he does not present well in those contests.

But I've seen polls in the past where upwards of 40% of people have said they would never vote for Trump under any circumstance. So any democratic candidate out there basically has a head start of at least some significant portion of voters, likely or registered.

I'm inclined to believe polling. I know people give polling a lot of shit based on the 2016 results, but the polls, from about October through November, were showing an average of about 2 to 3% advantage for Hillary and that's what she ended up getting. It just wasn't spread out in a way to win the election.

The only polling that has proven, generally, false to this point that I can recall was the 2020 Super Tuesday polling (as Biden won like 3 or 4 states that the polls indicated he would not. Texas, Maine, Massachusetts and maybe Minnesota), but the majority of that polling was done before Pete and Amy dropped out, so that made the polling pretty much obsolete.

Overall, a good sign for Biden and his 'electability.'