Coronavirus

[GMDino]

From a friend of a relative.  I cannot attest to the 100% truth of any or all of it, but it seems relatively evenhanded.

And the original post is now more than a few days old so specifics may have changed. Stay informed.

Quote:...asked me to share this post from her friend Beth Shaaban, who has her PhD in epidemiology. I'm copying/pasting the post, and have to split into two posts because of its size. Here's Part 1
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Hi Friends,
I have not been on Facebook much lately, but things are developing really quickly with COVID19, and you are getting to see my field of epidemiology in action. I have shared information with some family members and friends and thought it could be helpful to share with FB friends. We all like to hear directly from someone we know during uncertain situations, so consider this hearing from your friend the epidemiologist. Most of you know, but for those who don’t, I am a PhD epidemiologist. My specialty is not infectious disease, but I know epidemiology, I know trustworthy information sources, and so I know more than most about what's happening now.

I also want to make myself available to you. If you have questions, I won’t know the answer to everything, but I will do my best to answer your questions or help you find answers. There are no judgments, and there are no silly questions. I just want my friends and family to be informed and stay safe.

If you only take one thing from this message: There might be personal danger to you associated with this, and moreso if you are in a vulnerable group, but the key thing that is NOT obvious is about the danger to our communities overall: because no one has any level of immunity to this virus, it is possible for large proportions of the population to get sick all at once. If that happens, it will overwhelm the medical system and other aspects that we take for granted about day to day functioning in society (read this: https://bit.ly/2wQR0r4). So we need to do the right things for our communities to lower the number of cases and spread out the timing of the cases. All of us, even if we are not high risk, must change our behavior now. Support your family. Support your friends. Check on your neighbors. Let’s do the right thing by one another and help each other out.

Background on the virus and disease. The virus is called SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes is called COVID19. This virus is a new coronavirus, not previously seen in humans, and therefore none of us have any immunity from prior exposure. This is part of why it is so impactful in terms of spreading. The world’s entire population is susceptible. There are 4 existing coronaviruses that typically circulate in humans and cause upper respiratory infections.

Endemic=a disease that is typically found in an area / population
Epidemic=disease occurrence beyond typical/expected levels
Pandemic=epidemic in multiple locations / spread across a large area

How does it spread? Droplets—meaning coughing, sneezing, and transfer to other surfaces, which you then come along and touch.
Who is vulnerable? Those 50+, those with medical conditions (like asthma, other breathing problems, diabetes, heart disease, etc.), those who are immunosuppressed. Children do seem to get this, but thankfully don’t seem to have severe consequences. However, it is important for those with children and those in vulnerable groups to remember that children do get this disease and spread the disease, and it may not appear very serious, allowing them to spread it unknowingly.

Regarding the burden on the health care system: This is why this virus can be very bad. Check out what is happening in Italy right now. If a lot of people get critically ill all at once, there are too many people who need respirators, isolation, etc. for the hospitals to deal with. It's like when there's a hurricane or earthquake and hospitals are overwhelmed...except it keeps going over weeks and weeks. Then medical providers have to start making decisions about who gets these scarce resources, and these are decisions that no one ever wants to make. So the reason we (public health professionals) are arguing for people to cancel large gatherings, cut back on flying unless essential, work from home if possible, etc. is so that we reduce the number of cases at one time. This has implications not just for those with COVID19, but also all the other folks who need a hospital too. Imagine that this hits hard where you live, but your dad needs surgery because he has a blocked artery putting him at risk of a heart attack or stroke. He won't be able to get it. Imagine your friend with cancer needs radiation and/or surgery. They can't get it. So these people will have consequences too. This principle is well discussed in this article, and there is a nice illustration of the principle of flattening the curve. https://www.statnews.com/…/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavi…/

What am I doing? I am part of a vulnerable group as someone who is immunosuppressed due to treatment for my rheumatoid arthritis, so I am…

• Not flying, not attending conferences
• Avoiding other large gatherings
• Working at home as much as I can
• Staying home and away from others if I feel sick, even if it’s mild
• Eating healthy
• Already got my flu shot some time ago
• Washing hands or using hand sanitizer often
• Being prepared at home in case I shouldn’t go out—like sources of food, water, and medications for a while



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What should you do? I want to really emphasize these things below because some of the messaging to the public has failed to convey the level of seriousness associated with this outbreak that would actually change the public’s behavior enough to slow and reduce this pandemic.

• Hygiene
o Wash your hands after the bathroom, before eating, after touching others, after touching surfaces that many others have touched, and periodically throughout the day
o Don’t touch your face/eyes/nose—this is really hard for me!
• Avoid large gatherings; cancel them if you’re the organizer
o Most of the upcoming academic conferences that I and others would normally attend are canceling; SXSW is canceled; etc. This is the responsible decision. This includes--
 Rallies (political/other)
 Church, especially if communion is given or offering plates are passed and touched by many
 St. Patrick’s day parades (yes, they really should be canceled)
• If you have workplace decision making authority, allow your employees to work remotely if possible. Provide paid sick leave.
• Don’t go to large institutional settings with people in close proximity unless you really need to (for example hospitals, nursing homes).
• Don’t fly right now

Who should you get your information from:

Get your information from reliable sources based on science, infectious disease, and epidemiology experts. That source of information has NOT proven to be the White House.

• Stat News—I have been reading their coverage and trust their reporting. Their coronavirus coverage looks to be mostly, if not all, free: https://www.statnews.com/tag/coronavirus/
• Given that much testing and public health policy is implemented at the state and local level, local news, local health department can be good sources.
• Anthony Fauci, NIAID (National Inst. Of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)
• World Health Organization (https://www.who.int/emergen…/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019)

I have seen and heard some myths that I would like to correct:

Myths and truths

• Myth: SARS-CoV-2 was manufactured or released from a Chinese lab.
o Truth: infectious disease experts track coronaviruses which are endemic to other animals. Bats, alpacas, and even whales! get coronaviruses, and sometimes they are able to jump to humans. Based on genetic testing, experts think that bats were the likely reservoir for this virus. These types of viruses are highly capable of recombining. Because they are constantly mutating, this maximizes their opportunities to develop characteristics which will make them capable of jumping to humans, being mild enough to promote spread from one person to the next, etc. They have long been followed and predicted to be likely agents of future large-scale outbreaks.

• Myth: We don’t need to worry about this because it’s like flu, and who cares about flu.
o Truth: influenza is actually quite serious, but in addition to that:
o it is highly infectious (see this story about how many people each infected person can infect: https://lat.ms/2THkHnk ), and the entire population of earth is susceptible as I mentioned above. None of us have any protection against the disease. A vaccine would likely be 12-18 months out
o we don't have a real idea of number of cases because we don't have enough test kits and some of the chemicals needed to carry them out have been bought up and are in short supply (https://bit.ly/33dqXGx), and
o the latest estimated case fatality rate (% of those infected that die) across all cases in the world is estimated at 3%; assuming this is an overestimate due to inaccurate number of cases (underestimated total case number, see #2 above), that % has been estimated at 1%. The case fatality rate for flu is 0.1%, making this 10x more deadly (see video with Anthony Fauci here: https://twitter.com/politico/status/1237844713626988547?s=20).

o Vulnerable groups are more at risk for bad outcomes, and we need to take that seriously. Each of you reading this—if you know me—knows at least one person in this category. Please help protect me, your parents, grandparents, and others you work with and love. If those who are not in the high-risk groups do not take this seriously, it will spread to people like me, with bad consequences.

Experts say by taking aggresive measures, governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission of the coronavirus.

About this website statnews.com

'Flattening the curve’ may be the world’s best bet to slow the coronavirus

Experts say by taking aggresive measures, governments have a shot at stamping out new chains of transmission of the coronavirus.



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Best explanation I have read about the corona virus: Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on

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