04-30-2020, 10:40 AM
(04-30-2020, 10:19 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I think you can always question authority. When they take actions like this, it’s up to them to continuously prove themselves. When our health director says we will peak at 6,000-10,000 a day and we don’t even hit 2000, that I’m going to question it. When they say it’s so it because of closing of business and social distancing etc I’m going to be a little sceptical that they made models and didn’t include the mitigating factors they employed. Maybe that’s how models are done, but I’m sure as hell going to question it. That’s wrong by a lot.
This gives a good break down of what models are and aren't useful for
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/833337645
It's wrong for anyone to use a model to say "this will happen", but they're useful for saying, "this could happen".
They may have been using the IHME model if you're referring to someone in the administration, which its creator says they were pretty pessimistic when making it with regards to how well people would social distance. He now says he hopes that, as states eye the numbers on when they reopen, he wasn't too optimistic about how long people will maintain social distancing.
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