04-30-2020, 02:27 PM
(04-30-2020, 10:19 AM)michaelsean Wrote: I think you can always question authority. When they take actions like this, it’s up to them to continuously prove themselves. When our health director says we will peak at 6,000-10,000 a day and we don’t even hit 2000, that I’m going to question it. When they say it’s so it because of closing of business and social distancing etc I’m going to be a little sceptical that they made models and didn’t include the mitigating factors they employed. Maybe that’s how models are done, but I’m sure as hell going to question it. That’s wrong by a lot.
That's all well and good, but a model being off hardly indicates validity of some insane conspiracy theory. The people questioning actual medical professionals know next to nothing about what they are saying. People who get paid to make the projection and research epidemics still get the benefit of the doubt from me, particularly when the people questioning the professionals absolutely have a political angle to consider. I'll still take the doctor's opinions over your people who want to say it's all on Bill Gates and 5G, lol.
It's fun to take shots at credentialed public figures when they are off on something, but that's largely Monday morning quarterbacking. If you're in the scenario of advising public officials, do you want to do too much or too little? Do you want to deal with the usual cranks squealing and crying about a Constitution they've likely never read, or do you want to have to answer for infection and mortality numbers far larger than your prediction due to underestimating impact and lack of timely countermeasure.
I'll take the squealing cranks all day. Plus, we aren't out of this yet. They're going to ease restrictions, probably over the next month in most places. If this thing spreads like wildfire and the count goes up or god forbid is worse than the first wave, the squealing crank crowd's argument won't age very well. I know it's a chance that they're willing to take until they're choking on their own bodily fluids, and fortunately for them they will get to have their desired easing very soon.
To sum it up, a projection being off shouldn't give people with zero understanding of the issue at hand the ability to dictate the next step forward. I know that the Trumpers all think that this is over and we should go back to normal life because it was all a hoax. Forgive me if I choose to question their authority on subjects they have no grasp on.