2020 Election

[Belsnickel]

(08-31-2020, 07:41 AM)Dill Wrote:
Trump's still in trouble in first post-convention polling
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-biden-post-convention-polling/index.html

President Donald Trump wanted a large bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention, and early evidence is that he did not receive one. Trump may have gotten a small bump out of his convention, but he still clearly trails former Vice President Joe Biden.
If later polling data confirms this early evidence, a Trump victory hinges on him becoming the first incumbent in over 70 years to come from behind after trailing following the major party conventions.
The new ABC News/Ipsos poll is especially harsh for Trump. Although it did not poll the horse race, it did poll the candidates' favorability ratings.
Trump's favorable rating stood at 32% in an Ipsos' poll last week. Today, after the Republican National Convention, it stands at 31%.
Biden's favorable rating, meanwhile, was at 45% last week. It's now at 46%.

RCP hasn't updated their EC map in a while. I will be interested to see some of the state-by-state polling post-convention and with everything going on. National polls from the convention should be coming out this week, and that will be interesting to see the effects on polling.

What the conservatives are harping on right now, though, is the betting odds: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

They put the race at a near neck-and-neck scenario, which isn't at all surprising to be honest. The polling aggregate folks I look at all have it as Biden with a slight edge. This is, and will remain, close.