2020 Election

[*michaelsean*]

(11-04-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I never saw any polls that were predicting any sort of blowout, just that most polls/data models had Biden winning. Michigan and Wisconsin were both states that were predicted to go blue. With over 90% of the votes counted, they are both blue. If Biden takes those states, the election is essentially over. Biden would just need Nevada, where he is favored to win as well.

Now, is a blowout possible? Yes, for both sides, really. If Trump were to flip Wisconsin and Michigan, keep Georgia and take PA then he would cook Biden. That isn’t incredibly likely, but possible. If Biden wins MI and WI, takes GA (NYT has him at a 64% chance to win) and takes PA, he would also win in a landslide.

Back to your original point, the polls have largely been accurate. The states like Florida where Biden was leading were well within the margin of error, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that those states went red. The toss-up states were NC, FL, GA, AZ and PA. The rest of the states have gone as predicted, and Biden has a favorable outlook in GA and PA.

Biden had a 9% national lead the last I saw. Unless that came down significantly they will be way off.