05-29-2020, 12:39 PM
Two huge issues with this rule had it been implemented:
1.) The success rate for onsides kicks, prior to the new rules, still only had a 15-20% success rate. It's supposed to be extremely unlikely to be a success. I won't go so far as to call it a miracle, or equal to that of a Hail Mary, but I do think it's almost in the same vain.
When you successfully recover an onsides kick it should be a BIG deal. Like, "Holy Crap, we actually recovered!". And it should be difficult. Another team has probably spent 55-59 mintutes slowly building their advantage. It shouldn't be easily erased by a single play.
Converting a 4th and 15 doesn't feel all that special to me. And I feel like the success rate would nearly double (30-40%), given the team going for it. Which brings me to point 2....
2.) The rule would be certain teams at a huge advantage. If you're a team that has a sub-par QB, or maybe your run focused, and/or defensively minded, your odds of completing a 15 yard pass are not going to be at all equal to a team with a stud QB and gobs of weapons.
The onsides kick really gave a pretty equal chance of success across the 32 teams. But with the new rule, a team like Chiefs or the Saints might have a 40% chance of success, where a team like the Jags or the Panthers might have a 20% chance. That doesn't strike me as incredibly fair.
Just my 2 cents...
1.) The success rate for onsides kicks, prior to the new rules, still only had a 15-20% success rate. It's supposed to be extremely unlikely to be a success. I won't go so far as to call it a miracle, or equal to that of a Hail Mary, but I do think it's almost in the same vain.
When you successfully recover an onsides kick it should be a BIG deal. Like, "Holy Crap, we actually recovered!". And it should be difficult. Another team has probably spent 55-59 mintutes slowly building their advantage. It shouldn't be easily erased by a single play.
Converting a 4th and 15 doesn't feel all that special to me. And I feel like the success rate would nearly double (30-40%), given the team going for it. Which brings me to point 2....
2.) The rule would be certain teams at a huge advantage. If you're a team that has a sub-par QB, or maybe your run focused, and/or defensively minded, your odds of completing a 15 yard pass are not going to be at all equal to a team with a stud QB and gobs of weapons.
The onsides kick really gave a pretty equal chance of success across the 32 teams. But with the new rule, a team like Chiefs or the Saints might have a 40% chance of success, where a team like the Jags or the Panthers might have a 20% chance. That doesn't strike me as incredibly fair.
Just my 2 cents...
