05-06-2016, 03:46 PM
(05-06-2016, 03:40 PM)Au165 Wrote: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/
Draft gurus have no clue, it just makes fort good TV. If there was any semblance of a "science" teams would have a much better success rate than sub .500 in drafting players who at least contribute. The worst thing is though that people are convinced a guy should be picked here or there. History has shown that you are much more likely to be wrong than right. You want to put a ceiling on Boyd? What kind of ceiling did you put on Richard Sherman? Did you know Edelman was a star? If you want to rank guys, or predict future outcomes that is fine, but please don't act like your guess, and I do mean guess, is the gospel.
Sorry didn't mean to be an attack on you specifically, but draft time just always gets me with all these "experts" in something that has been proven to be nothing more than guessing.
You'll never see me praise Kiper and McShay, they get all their info from secondary sources, our boy Duke said this himself.
Science is not, and never will be perfect, it's putting all your observations, information and data into a formulated, yes, estimation. I don't expect to be always right, but I do expect to be confident about any projection that I put my name on, because they're not blind projections. There's work put into each of them.
