4th and 1... Where is the Media backlash?

[wolverine515151]

(10-15-2018, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Tie game.  Defensive playing well.  The reason their is no media backlash is because it was the right decision.  

Mixon had just gotten stuffed on 3rd and 1. If we go for it and fail you all would be crying about how stupid it was to go for it.

Stop embarrassing yourself, the math indicated you go for it.  We have gone for it 13 of 79 times in the last 5 years for an average of 16.4%. 

The league average is to go for it around 50% in that situation. This right away indicates that the league is much less conservative on average than we have been.

More importantly, we have converted 9 of 13 when we go for it, that's close to 70%. There was a much greater chance of converting the fourth down than holding them to less than the 40 yard line and getting the ball back. 

It would, number one, assume that the punt doesn't go into the end zone, which could happen, and would give them the ball at the 20. Two, it would assume they don't bust out a big punt return. 

Then, if those two things go our way, hold them to 30 yards or less and get the ball back.  With our depleted defense due to injuries , that had been giving up a lot of yards, that was not a likely outcome. 

I would say there was a less than 20% chance for those  things to happen, good punt not into end zone, no big return, and hold them to less than 30 yards.  

Since 70% > 20% you absolutely go for it that situation. 

This is not all about being  too conservative, this is about understanding the percentages and playing the percentages.