05-20-2020, 07:44 PM
(05-20-2020, 03:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: As much as Green wants a long term deal he is not going to take one with less guaranteed money than the $18.5 million he gets under the tag. And it would be crazy to give him more than $18.5 million guaranteed before we know if he can still play and stay healthy.
THIS!!!!
I keep trying to remind people of this when they float numbers out there, and it never seems to stick. And I've seen you do it as well.
Not only does it obviously need to be at least that amount in guarantees, the reality is that it most likely needs to be a decent amount more in a multi-year contract.
As it stands he's got 18.5 fully guaranteed, and he's free to secure additional guarantees, and a brand new signing bonus, in a brand new contract, after this season. So I really can't see him letting the team control his rights for additional 3 or 4 years without at least a decent amount above that. I mean, why would he?
That's why these posts of "I'd like to see him sign an incentive laden deal" make no sense. How do you work out an incentive laden contract with 25+ mil in guaranteed money???
Cuz that's the minimum I think it would truly take if you really want AJ Green on an extension. And honestly, that number is probably closer to 30 than 25. You're talking at least 25 mil guaranteed to pull that off. So people can estimate that and go from there.
3 years, 4 years, 12-16 mil per, take your pick. But the years and the total dollars are secondary to the guaranteed amount. You're talking about a pretty HUGE investment to lock him.
Like a few of us have said, you have to work off the guarantees. I'm sure we'd all love to sign him for 3 years with less guaranteed and put a ton of incentives in the contract. The problem is there is no incentive for him to do that right now.
