05-22-2020, 02:01 PM
(05-20-2020, 07:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: THIS!!!!
I keep trying to remind people of this when they float numbers out there, and it never seems to stick. And I've seen you do it as well.
Not only does it obviously need to be at least that amount in guarantees, the reality is that it most likely needs to be a decent amount more in a multi-year contract.
As it stands he's got 18.5 fully guaranteed, and he's free to secure additional guarantees, and a brand new signing bonus, in a brand new contract, after this season. So I really can't see him letting the team control his rights for additional 3 or 4 years without at least a decent amount above that. I mean, why would he?
That's why these posts of "I'd like to see him sign an incentive laden deal" make no sense. How do you work out an incentive laden contract with 25+ mil in guaranteed money???
Cuz that's the minimum I think it would truly take if you really want AJ Green on an extension. And honestly, that number is probably closer to 30 than 25. You're talking at least 25 mil guaranteed to pull that off. So people can estimate that and go from there.
3 years, 4 years, 12-16 mil per, take your pick. But the years and the total dollars are secondary to the guaranteed amount. You're talking about a pretty HUGE investment to lock him.
Like a few of us have said, you have to work off the guarantees. I'm sure we'd all love to sign him for 3 years with less guaranteed and put a ton of incentives in the contract. The problem is there is no incentive for him to do that right now.
I think you're right in principle, but this will not be as hard to do as you make it out to be. The franchise tag 18.5 is guaranteed for one year. It's basically a guaranteed base salary with no signing bonus. You might as well guaranteed his base salary in 2020 because it's not like we're cutting him no matter what he does this year.
Figure it like this:
3 year deal, $12 million signing bonus, 10 million base salary per year (forget workout bonuses and such for the sake of simplicity).
If you then guarantee his base salary in year 1 (but not thereafter), he's getting 22 million his first year, way above what he's getting now.
In years 2-3 he'd get a non-guaranteed 10 million base, but you can add to that those incentives other folks are talking about to kick it up to the mid teens. Or he might be interested in roster bonuses to disincentivize the team from releasing him a week after the draft like they did Andy (cut him early or not at all). The question is what's he willing to do in years 2-3 in exchange for giving him more guaranteed money now, fully knowing he's had trouble staying healthy as of late.
Those are just rough numbers, not meant to be predictions, but note that in that scenario his 2020 cap hit would drop to 14 million, and I bet we could even get it lower.
