01-19-2021, 05:14 PM
I'm in the minority I guess, and I get why 100%. I'll defend my yes vote nonetheless.
If it's a straight up 1 for 1 swap? (And Watson was keen on coming to Cincinnati) I take the trade, and this is why:
-Watson, despite finishing his 4th season in the NFL is just 1 year older than Burrow is. We know what Watson already is and that's a top 5 NFL QB who has consistently gotten better despite key departures at WR. Burrow, as great as he looked at times, still only has 10 games of NFL experience. He absolutely looks like he's going to be something special. Well, Watson already is. There's truly no wrong answer to this question, they're both dynamic young QB's on long-term multi-year deals.
-Both QB's have had knee injuries, Watson's was in his rookie year and he's been lights out ever since. We don't know yet how Burrow will bounce back. (He'll be fine, I'm just being practical.)
- This isn't a rental, while the later years of the contract don't look like a bargain (atm), Watson's signed for a year longer than Burrow is and those cap numbers will likely look pedestrian compared to the numbers when it's time to negotiate Burrow's second deal in 3 years or so.
- Speaking of Watson's contract, the signing bonus that's spread throughout the deal is still all on Houston. If Watson were to be traded I believe the cap hits on his new team would be significantly smaller (5.4M/yr through 2024). Also, his deal is structured in a way where the WORST year is 2023 (where a 17M roster bonus is due) so if they wanted out they can do so. The last two years the cap hits decline so the deal isn't heavily backloaded. It isn't a bad contract considering the production you're expecting to get and the age of the player in question, he'll turn 30 during the last season of the deal.
In summary, if it were a straight up swap I'd take Watson based on him being a firmly established top flight NFL QB signed for a year longer and still only 25 years old. It's not a knock on Burrow at all, I think he did fantastic all things considered this year and am not at all displeased that he's our QB. If they trade Watson they're going to get an absolute king's ransom for him even if Watson does his best to force their hand and depress their return. We're talking multiple first round picks just as a starting point.
Edit: I absolutely would rather invest the cap money that would be committed to Watson towards fixing the O-Line and adding pieces to the Defense. I just looked at it in a vacuum of which QB: Burrow for 4 or Watson for 5?
If it's a straight up 1 for 1 swap? (And Watson was keen on coming to Cincinnati) I take the trade, and this is why:
-Watson, despite finishing his 4th season in the NFL is just 1 year older than Burrow is. We know what Watson already is and that's a top 5 NFL QB who has consistently gotten better despite key departures at WR. Burrow, as great as he looked at times, still only has 10 games of NFL experience. He absolutely looks like he's going to be something special. Well, Watson already is. There's truly no wrong answer to this question, they're both dynamic young QB's on long-term multi-year deals.
-Both QB's have had knee injuries, Watson's was in his rookie year and he's been lights out ever since. We don't know yet how Burrow will bounce back. (He'll be fine, I'm just being practical.)
- This isn't a rental, while the later years of the contract don't look like a bargain (atm), Watson's signed for a year longer than Burrow is and those cap numbers will likely look pedestrian compared to the numbers when it's time to negotiate Burrow's second deal in 3 years or so.
- Speaking of Watson's contract, the signing bonus that's spread throughout the deal is still all on Houston. If Watson were to be traded I believe the cap hits on his new team would be significantly smaller (5.4M/yr through 2024). Also, his deal is structured in a way where the WORST year is 2023 (where a 17M roster bonus is due) so if they wanted out they can do so. The last two years the cap hits decline so the deal isn't heavily backloaded. It isn't a bad contract considering the production you're expecting to get and the age of the player in question, he'll turn 30 during the last season of the deal.
In summary, if it were a straight up swap I'd take Watson based on him being a firmly established top flight NFL QB signed for a year longer and still only 25 years old. It's not a knock on Burrow at all, I think he did fantastic all things considered this year and am not at all displeased that he's our QB. If they trade Watson they're going to get an absolute king's ransom for him even if Watson does his best to force their hand and depress their return. We're talking multiple first round picks just as a starting point.
Edit: I absolutely would rather invest the cap money that would be committed to Watson towards fixing the O-Line and adding pieces to the Defense. I just looked at it in a vacuum of which QB: Burrow for 4 or Watson for 5?
