Carl Lawson posts cryptic tweet

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-03-2021, 01:19 AM)Au165 Wrote: Not sure about your Reddit thing, but no one who follows analytics believes sacks are nearly as valuable as fans think. All your anecdotal numbers are nice,  now show me the same numbers but replace sacks with TFL. Relying on sacks again fails to account for value generated by pressure, a throw away because of pressure is a win. An errant throw because of pressure is actually a more valuable play than a sack except on 4th down or a sack fumble. As I already mentioned, the biggest issue is it doesn’t mean you actually did anything only that you were the same place the QB was at the end of a play.

This is pretty much universally to be accepted in the new age of football statistics. Sacks are not this all important stat and there is plenty of data to back it up. You mentioned Clowney and the Seahawks, while he didn’t account for massive sack numbers their defensive analytics did regress so badly they had to go get Dunlap mid year because they couldn’t generate the pressures that Clowney did that resulted in negative plays.

Sacks are a function of winning reps but also of poor QB play, great coverage, and some times luck. That is why pass rush win rate is a better indicator of skill and why it’s more readily used in evaluation that a stat like sacks. You can only win the rep in front of you, if you beat a guy in 2 seconds and sack a guy and the guy across you wins his in 5 but Sam Darnold won’t throw the ball away and let’s you sack him they were not equal in the talent required to achieve them (this was Maxx Crosby) which is why sacks aren’t really meaningful.

You keep shitting on Maxx Crosby for some reason, but at the end of the day...

2019-2020
Crosby: 86 tackles, 4 FF, 5 Pdef, 17.0 sacks, 30 TFL
Lawson: 59 tackles, 2 FF, 0 Pdef, 10.5 sacks, 10 TFL

Yet the first was ranked 83rd by PFF and the second was ranked 14th. That is proof that there is clearly a problem with the analytics and system.

It's funny because you mentioned TFL, but Lawson has only 11 of those in the last 3 years. He doesn't get TFL, he doesn't get Sacks, he doesn't get Pdef, he doesn't get FF, and he doesn't even get tackles.

But boy howdy does he "win". Sure those "wins" don't actually produce anything, but that lack of production is glorious. You take the guy who produces nothing tangible and I will take the guy who is statistically superior in every tangible way.

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As for the Seahawks, they regressed so much without Clowney's whopping 3 sacks that they actually got to the QB much better? 

2018: 12th in sacks without Clowney 
2019: 31st in sacks with Clowney
2020: 7th in sacks without Clowney

But hey, he "won" or something.