03-26-2021, 10:50 PM
(03-26-2021, 08:56 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: What are those percentages respectively, how is hit/miss defined, source?
The source is just me. I am just amazed and in love with the NFL draft so I evaluate prospects, analyze (for some), project, comp them and it's basically a personal hobby for me. It's always fun to look back and see how they've turned out. Obviously over time you notice trends and little things regarding the draft that you didn't notice before. You find things that at first glance don't matter but a half inch here or this many lbs here truly does matter in some of these guys draft cases and it is especially interesting when the outliers to these come because you are always looking to find what made this guy different then the trend. So regarding hit and miss, I just divide them into categories of Hit, Miss, and meh. Meh just means below expectations but not necessarily a miss. For example, Darqueze Dennard would be considered a meh. He was below expectations for what we expect in a first round pick but he found a nice little role in the slot and performed decent/well there. I separate it into expectations based on where you were drafted. The first 3 rounds it is 1-10, 11-20, 21-32. Then day 4 is slotted by draft numbers but by rounds, so just 4th round, 5tth round etc.
To go back to my original post I am going to select the 2017 draft.
Late first (20-32)
Garrett Bolles: Hit
Jarrad Davis: Miss, his performance aligns with an expected early-mid third round LB
Charles Harris: Miss
Evan Engram: Meh, Little below expectations, shown flashes, been injured. Grade TBD/Meh
Gareon Conley: Miss, not bad by any means but isn't showing the consistency of an expected first round corner.
Jabrill Peppers: Meh,
Takk Mckinley: Meh, not consistent but shown flashes.
Tredavious White: Hit
Taco Charleton: Miss
David Njoku: Miss
TJ Watt: Hit
Rueben Foster: Miss
Ryan Ramcyzck: Hit
Hit: 4 Meh: 3 Miss: 6
Early Second (33-43)
Kevin King: Meh, Perfect example is comparing Kevin King and Gareon Conley. One was a miss and one was a meh with similar performance but one was first round and one was second round. Kevin King would be a miss if drafted in the first.
Cam Robinson: Meh, debatable could be hit but safe side we'll say meh
Malik Mcdowell: Miss
Budda Baker: Hit
Zay Jones: Miss
Forrest Lamp: Miss
Marcus Maye: Hit
Curtis Samuel: Hit
Dalvin Cook: Hit
Sidney Jones: Miss
Hit 4 Meh 1 Miss 5
When determining these it is pretty straight forward as we can see. In this draft the second round picks had a higher hit% than the late first round picks but obviously every draft is different and in most drafts the trends show only a slight increase in % for late first as opposed to early second. I would appreciate it if you looked at this list and told me the ones you disagreed with in these categories just to get your opinion and see your reasoning but most of them are pretty straight forward. Hopefully I answered your question and if you have any more questions or concerns I'd love to answer them. At the end of the day I am not a professional or verified or anything like that, I'm just a fan like you so if you want to rule my takes about hit % and all that as invalid based on that I completely understand but I'm glad I could share a little bit with you.
