04-23-2021, 06:19 PM
(04-23-2021, 02:34 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Obviously no minds are going to be changed here, but I want to get it all out of my system and try to enjoy the week leading up to the draft without spending the next week arguing. So here goes.
My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...
1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.
2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.
3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.
If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.
4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.
5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.
Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.
6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.
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I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.
I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.
I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:
5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/
I totally disagree. Allow me....
1: Assuming they are all healthy, the 5 OL starters on the roster right now for the Bengals gave up a total of 6 sacks in 2020. That means 17 sacks are either NOT on the roster or at best 3rd on the depth chart... and that is before the draft and the rest of free agency.
2: Sewell is NOT the highest rated prospect the Bengals would potentially have available. In fact, depending on the scouting report, Sewell isn't even the best O lineman the Bengals can draft at 5. Pitts is rated higher than Sewell and, when positional value is taken into account, Chase is as well depending on the article.
Sewell would probably start, but at RG, more than likely. He is now projected more to NFL Guard than he is tackle duento his shorter stature (6-4) and shorter arms (33 1/4). Those are G proportions.
3: Higgins is a very strong player. But, he was a #2 & #3 option with AJ & Boyd on the field. This notion that you can just throw to anyone is a poor one. The Bengals are lacking weapons... given that they run "11" personnel more than any other team in the league, that is bad. 11 personnel is 3 wr, 1 RB, & 1 TE. To think that you can put any other WR out there and Tee Higgins would still get single coverage is a huge leap. Who's going out there as the other threat? Tate? Thomas? Morgan? We saw how bad the WRs looked last year. They were BAD. No matter who is on the line, if Burrow has to hold the ball because guys cannot get separation, he is going to get murdered.
Another threat opposite Higgins will continue to give Tee single coverage looks AND stop opposing CBs & S from creeping up in the box.
4: Plenty of balls to go around. Teams lineup with multiple threats every year. Cheifs, Browns, Steelers, Buccs, Saints, etc etc have excellent threats all over the field.
Chad, TJ, Henry, Rudi.... AJ, Jones, Sanu, Eifert.... No issues.
5. Elite blocking isn't about a bunch of elite guys. It is about how well they work together as a group WITH the QB & RB. This idea that big time draft picks don't get QBs hurt is false.
- Throw deep to whom? Tee Higgins & then ???? Teams Safties are alrwady creeping up because the Bengals have no one to go deep. That is what has been killing them the past several seasons. There is no room to run because of this. This has been discussed on HTPG & Locked on quite a bit.
6 The idea that Sewell is the only guy who's an elite pass blocker or lineman is just plain false. Sewell' pass blocking grade was 95. Cosmi 90. Dickerson 91. Leatherwood (if I recall) 89. A lot of guys in this draft are highly rated pass blockers.... against way way way better competition, as well. Sewell beat up tomato cans in the Pac 12. At least Slater has tape against elite pass rushers.
7: The dropoff from Chase to the 2nd round receivers is a chasm compared to Sewell and the 2nd or even 3rd round guys... especially when you factor in that he projects more to play G than he does OT.
To me, this draft, THAT is why Jamaar Chase is the clear, no brainer pick at 5. I think there will be 80% of Sewell available at 38. I cannot say the same about Chase.
Accordong to PFF analytics, in terms of positional value, a WR is far far far more important than an OT or G. I get that the Bengals need BOTH WR & O line. They NEED both. I would rather have the higher ceiling WR who is proven against NFL talent (doing that proving with the QB already here, BTW) and then take the best linemen in 2/3 or 2/4.
BTW, I am excited for ANY of them. Several paths to success for the Bengals. I will be all in on Sewell, Slater, Pitts, Chase. ALL IN. Just because it doesn't happen the way I envision it, doesn't mean I won't be able to see the vision.
I love you all, regardless. Even you, Fred Toast.
