11-09-2015, 02:00 PM
(11-09-2015, 04:01 AM)StripesInSuffolk Wrote: I give the Bengals about a 2% chance of going 16-0. I pulled that number out of my arse, but I'm serious -- it's not happening.
Just get a first round bye and maybe even home field advantage. Everything else is meaningless.
According to the following smart guy maths, we've got about a 5% chance of going 16-0. I'm using the fivethirtyeight.com ELO ratings to compute the following win probabilities (which are a bit simplistic, but a decent starting point):
Houston (78.2%), Arizona (57.8%), St. Louis (74.0%), Cleveland (85.6%), Pissburgh (64.3%), SF (78.5%), Denver (49.1%), Bmore (73.1%).
Multiply all those probabilities together and you end up with a 5.2% chance of 16-0. For what it's worth, the same procedure gave us a 6.6% chance of getting to 8-0.
Not likely to happen, but it looks like we should only be underdogs in one game, and maybe not even that one if Denver goes into the tank the next few weeks.
