02-18-2023, 10:17 AM
(02-18-2023, 09:11 AM)Nately120 Wrote: In saying Haley taking "move on from Trump" votes away from DeSantis could cause some contention betwettn them if DeSantis wins.
I could see DeSantis thinking that Haley running puts his presidential nomination at risk because the primary is Trump versus moving on from Trump and everyone other than DeSantis who runs gets things one step closer to Trump getting the nod again.
For that reason I could see the other nominees getting on Ron's bad side and him going with someone else at VP out of spite.
DeSantis wins this unless a bunch of people run and dilute the "not Trump" votes like in 2016.
I once thought Ron had this in the bag, but I'm not so sure.
Trump is still mega-popular and polls very well at street level for the party. A big chunk of the country definitely views him as unelectable. Problem is, most of that chunk is already voting for Democrats and not in Republican primaries. The anti-Trump Republicans probably aren't as impactful to the party as the country as a whole would like to think.
Sure, there are powerful people on the right with a shitload of money that will do all they can to stop another Trump presidency. The Kochs are probably the biggest example. I'm not sure it matters enough. At the end of the day, the base might very well still want to run it back with a guy they view as the most effective right-wing leader since Reagan. I tend to think they will.
The rub here is that once that fight is over, the candidate has to face the other chunk of anti-Trump voters in the general election. This has always been the poison pill for the far right. That's how a guy as bland and mistake prone as Biden becomes president and then goes on to have one of the better midterm outcomes of any executive in recent memory.
Trump will absolutely not pick Haley as a VP candidate. He's going to go with another firebrand like Greene or Lake. They are both putting in work for him to position themselves. Again, the base will love it, but the country as a whole along with the powers that be with the money on the right may not be so enthusiastic.
