06-29-2023, 12:38 PM
(06-29-2023, 12:09 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: You are probably right. Trump had some great policies that had the economy strong; which may have well continued into the Biden admin if not for the insane worldwide lockdowns that crushed everything. People can call me whatever names they want, but it was so overboard that I think it was done purposefully.
I also believe Biden would not be Prez right now if it were not for Covid. The economy was very strong and no wars. Biden didn't have a chance if we were not locked down like animals.
Yeah, prior admin policies can still be in effect causing either issues or boons that we would have already forgotten about. There is a lot that goes into it. For instance, we can look at annual real GDP increase as percentage to try to boil it down to an easily digestible figure. Under Trump, real GDP increased on average by 1.53%. Under Biden so far, it is increasing 2.74% but most of this is going to be recovery percentages as Trump's final year saw a decrease instead of an increase. Under Obama in his second term, it increased by an average of 2.24% and in his first term (right after the massive recession in 2008), it increased an average of 1.49%.
The economy is still recovering right now. It wasn't just a U.S. isolated issue like 2008, but a global issue. You're right in that the lockdowns really put a hurting on economic progression, again, globally. This is going off memory here, but as far as I remember the U.S. economy is recovering the quickest globally.
It's hard to say who would have won if not for COVID. Trump may very well have won, but Biden would still have been the favorite IMO. Trump is just a very deeply disliked man. Meanwhile, Biden was the former sidekick for a rather popular president on the Democratic side. For instance, in 2019, roughly half of polled voters expected Trump to win re-election. Only 50%, in a year where everything was going great. It can be tough to find, but there are early polls from 2019 that can be found that show Biden already leading Trump. Here is an interactive chart that has polling data from 2019. By the time 2020 rolled around, Trump was pretty much dead in the water. I think Trump was in trouble no matter what, really. Democrats were just fired up to get him out of office.
EDIT - That second link is actually a great link for reviewing historical polling data. They have data going back to February of 2019. Hell, there are a few FOX News posted polls that have Biden up by +14. That is a massive margin.
